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\r\n I agree.
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\r\nProblem is this roster doesn\'t have any low priced contributing talent.
\r\n
\r\nFor example, they had to spend 6 million on Adams because their younger bullpen arms failed.
\r\n
\r\nHave an outfield problem because Brown failed.
\r\n
\r\nNo roster can have 10-15 million dollar players at every position. Have to have some low priced talent.
\r\n
\r\nWe are now going to have to hope Ruf and Brown contribute enough early for us to be in a position to make a trade later in season
\r\n
\r\nAmaro has to take heat for this imbalances roster.
\r\n
\r\nSo I have no intention of ripping you for your point. Just want to point out the reference of Drinking the Kool Aid had its beginning in the mass murder and suicide of children at the Jim Jones Cult in 1970\'s so not sure that\'s a line you
\r\nreally want to use in something as ultimately meaningless as baseball and this comes from a 40 yr phillies fan.\r\n
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\r\n Ruben certainly has to take heat for the issues with this roster. However, it\'s hard to blame him for what appears to have been a very intentional path that the organization pursued.
\n
\nI think if you look back, a lot of us were keen to retool following the 2009 season. That would have put the 2010 and 2011 playoff runs in jeopardy, but the organization would look much healthier today. The Phillies instead went the direction of loading up for 2010/11 which is why we are where we are. However, Ruben did not make that decision on his own, ownership was certainly involved and possibly even drove that process.
\n
\nAdditionally, Ruben was fairly green when he took over as GM. His handling of this offseason thus far has strengthened my confidence in him (which is to say, I\'m quite uneasy about him rather than extremely so). It\'s good to see that he can handle multiple approaches to roster construction. He does appear to be learning from his mistakes, which is heartening.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n ATeam. I respect you a ton and think you have a great knowledge of the sport. But even you know that a double platoon with inexperienced guys is destine to fail. A straight platoon in left with Ruf and Brown with an everyday rightfielder is the best approach for this team. But for some reason amaro is ok spending on pitching but not offense. on top of that people say let brown get a chance then amaro signs adams which stops aumont from getting a chance its a great move.
\n
\nSuch a double standard\r\n
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\r\n Have I said anything overly positive about the Adams signing? I still have Aumont/Bastardo as the 8th inning guys until Adams proves he\'s recovered from surgery. I think it was a terribly risky signing and a poor use of resources. I\'ve said all along that our internal bullpen options are sufficient and that they should be focused on starting pitching.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n Ateam. I agree with you. But can you please explain to me why this Front office refuses to spend money on offense?\r\n
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Originally Posted by
Philsforever\r\n

\r\n
\r\n
Ateam. I agree with you. But can you please explain to me why this Front office refuses to spend money on offense?
\r\n \r\n
\r\n
\r\n
It\'s simple really, they can\'t afford to pay $25 mil/season for a guy like Hamilton, and the other options out there are modest upgrades on hefty paychecks.
\n
\nFor example, let\'s say the Phillies are willing to pay $5 million for each win. And let\'s say Nick Swisher is 2 wins better than a Brown/Mayberry platoon. Let\'s also pretend Swisher\'s deal is a 1-year/$13 contract just to keep the math simple.
\n
\nBasically, Swisher costs $6.5 million per win. The Phillies cut off is $5 million. So they aren\'t interested in Swisher. Rinse and repeat for the other available options.
\n
\nIn reality, they might be willing to overpay their value of a win if it was on a 1 year contract. But since Swisher got a 4-5 year contract, opportunity costs come into play. It\'s more like paying $9 million per win if they signed Swisher. So even if he was 3 wins better than the platoon, the math still doesn\'t work.\r\n
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\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n \r\n Last edited by The A Team; 12-23-2012 at 11:51 AM.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n Also, how many platoons did the \'93 Phillies have? A double platoon is not destined to fail. It\'s certainly not Plan A. Or B or C. But it could still work.
\n
\nMore importantly, we have to compare it to what is available. Did you want to pay Cody Ross - who by the way is another platoon OFer?
\n
\nPerhaps you would have preferred to sign Swisher. Given the payroll, that could have worked pre-Adams, and it might even have helped the club enough to make a difference.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n Dont forget the 93 platoons were with experienced players and not with young players. Swisher would have def helped this club. And dont be surprised to see ross hit 30hrs for arizona as a starter this year\r\n
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Originally Posted by
Philsforever\r\n

\r\n
\r\n
Dont forget the 93 platoons were with experienced players and not with young players. Swisher would have def helped this club. And dont be surprised to see ross hit 30hrs for arizona as a starter this year
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I will be surprised to see that. Very surprised. I have him projected for a .250/.310/.400 line with 20 HR if he gets to 600 PA. 30 HR isn\'t a huge outlier, but I really doubt he can reach 600 PA. 500 might be hard. And if I\'m right about that, then 30 HR is out of the question.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n But its ok to spend 20mil on halladay and 25mil on lee and 20 mil on hamels and 14mil on paps.
\n
\nDouble standard. Accourding to amaro its ok to spend 20mil a year on a guy who plays once every 5 days but not on a guy that plays every day and effects the outcome of 150games as opposed to 30\r\n
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Originally Posted by
Philsforever\r\n

\r\n
\r\n
But its ok to spend 20mil on halladay and 25mil on lee and 20 mil on hamels and 14mil on paps.
\r\n
\r\nDouble standard. Accourding to amaro its ok to spend 20mil a year on a guy who plays once every 5 days but not on a guy that plays every day and effects the outcome of 150games as opposed to 30
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That\'s already over and done with though. You have to consider each move individually as well.
\r\n
\r\nThe Halladay contract was extremely team friendly. There\'s no way they could not sign him at that rate and length.
\r\n
\r\nHamels\' contract is more or less reasonable given his age and value to the franchise.
\r\n
\r\nLee\'s more on the borderline since he was older when he signed the deal. The length is the problem with that deal more than the amount.
\r\n
\r\nIn each of those three cases, those players represented the most cost effective use of resources at that particular time.
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\r\nObviously, nobody on here likes the Papelbon contract.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n Keep in mind, when they extended Hamels, they were basically saying "In 2013-18 I prefer Hamels to unknown prospects of unknowable value by $144 million." If Hamels is 5 wins better than the typical "unknown prospect of unknowable value" (and he is) then that\'s a good value proposition.
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\nCould a Jesse Biddle come along and make the Phillies wish they just let Hamels walk? Sure. But you have to place very strong emphasis on that "could."\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n excellent points. but that being said who is to say Hamilton wouldnt be 5 wins over brown and make same as Hamels?\r\n
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Originally Posted by
Philsforever\r\n

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excellent points. but that being said who is to say Hamilton wouldnt be 5 wins over brown and make same as Hamels?
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Is that possible? Sure. But it doesn\'t even matter. Hamilton was not available when Hamels was and in retrospect, Hamels signed way below his market value. Look at how Greinke was paid. Hamels would have easily gotten another $30 million.
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\r\nBottom line, sequencing matters. The Phillies had opportunities to sign good pitchers and took them. They did not have those same opportunities with hitters, with the possible exception of Werth.
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\r\nIf you remember back, it was widely assumed that the club would extend Werth or Howard. We know how that turned out. Howard also preempted the club from pursuing Pujols or Fielder.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n I don\'t think you\'re grasping the money aspect of this. Amaro had a budget. The pitching options signed had more upside to make this team better given the budget. It\'s not that he won\'t spend on offense. There are just no affordable options that are an upgrade to this team.
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\nI think your opinion is incredibly short sighted.
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\nBtw, did this really need it\'s own thread?\r\n
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\r\n Last year they had the option to sign Willingham or Cuddyer and passed and now are trying to trade for them. Im not being short sited. I just feel that Amaro would have been better suited to buy a hitter or 2 instead of all this pitching.\r\n
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\r\n Dude, like who?? Who is or was out there that was within the budget and better than the current options AND pitching options? It\'s not enough to simply say "spend on the offense!" When there\'s nothing to spend on.
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\nHow about this? Can you just stop your complaining? You\'re on an island here. There wasn\'t another option for Amaro to pursue. I agree with A-Team, we\'re not saying he hasn\'t made bad decisions. But there wasn\'t a viable FA bat to sign this offseason in the Phils budget. I\'m lost why that doesn\'t make sense to you.\r\n
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\r\n wow.... I dislike the guy and I even feel bad for the beating Amaro is taking from Philsforever.
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\r\nRemember you\'re a fan and he is a Stanford educated executive and former player.
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\r\nThere are so many different variables when it comes to running an organization. Amaro doesn\'t care what you think or desire.
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\r\nHe has to appease the casual fans by fielding a playoff caliber roster as well as retaining fan favorites if he can at a realistic price. He has to sell out the premium seats and wants to keep the sell-out streak going/start a new one. This doesn\'t even begin to into ALL the hall of fame hitters who were willing to sign with us for sub-market value over the past 3 years. we can\'t even get Jayson Werth to give us a realistic deal... what do you want him to do ?\r\n
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\r\n Amaro\'s failings are the choices he made. I will never understand signing Polanco to make him into a third baseman when Beltre\' was available.
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\nI struggle with the number of left handed batters he has pursued as well. After trading for Revere the idea of signing another left handed bat in Hamilton just seemed ludicrous.
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\n...and yes, I would take a flyer on Soriana if the Cubs are willing to pick up some salary.\r\n
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\r\n UPenn.
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\nIt would have been nice to sign Josh Willingham, but that\'s about the only name that I see and say, "shoot, we could have gotten that guy."
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\nI keep seeing Beltre\'s name come up, but there is no indication that he was ever obtainable. Remember that at the time they signed Polanco, Beltre was asking for a substantial 4-5 year deal and telling teams he would only sign on the West coast.
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\nWhen he was a free agent again the following year, Polanco was coming off a season where he basically matched Beltre\'s production for a fraction of the cost. So there was no reason to consider signing him.
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\nDo I need to make this a thread for people to remember this?\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n I\'m not sure what good firing Ruben would do at this point. Even if you do think he deserves to be canned, what would a new GM be able to do to help the big club right now? There are no chips to trade and no one left on the market to sign.
\n
\nAfter last offseason it was clear that Ruben is betting the immediate future of this team on the core, possibly at the expense of the long-term future of the team. I feel like you have to let him ride out the productivity of the core until the **** completely hits the fan in the next couple years.
\n
\nA range of outcomes may occur, the two extremes being that everyone stays healthy this year, they compete for (and possibly win) a championship, the continue to play well for another year or two, and a few of the prospects hit and this team rebuilds on the fly. If that\'s the case, then obviously, Ruben stays.
\n
\nThe opposite outcome is that Utley and Doc can\'t stay healthy, Howard and Rollins continue to decline, and the team hovers at or below .500 again. If that\'s the case then they have to make decisions on Utley and Halladay, the team probably goes nowhere, and it becomes clear that Ruben has to go.
\n
\nThe in between situations consist of the Phillies remaining somewhat competitive, but the farm doesn\'t produce bona fide prospects/trade chips, and so Ruben cannot improve the team in any significant way. In this case, the team slowly flames out until Howard\'s contract is up. If this happens then the Phils are pretty much in the same limbo that they\'re in now. Firing Ruben during a period like this would have some symbolic value, but there isn\'t much you can ask another GM to do (besides signing whatever free agent comes on the market, and you\'re still talking about outbidding other teams with what would be a pretty undesirable free agent situation in Philly).
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\nRuben bet on the core, and because of that, his fate is essentially tied to that of the core.\r\n
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\r\nLearning to love the bomb since 2009
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Phils,
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Flyers
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Originally Posted by
k_dol50\r\n

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I\'m not sure what good firing Ruben would do at this point. Even if you do think he deserves to be canned, what would a new GM be able to do to help the big club right now? There are no chips to trade and no one left on the market to sign.
\r\n
\r\nAfter last offseason it was clear that Ruben is betting the immediate future of this team on the core, possibly at the expense of the long-term future of the team. I feel like you have to let him ride out the productivity of the core until the **** completely hits the fan in the next couple years.
\r\n
\r\nA range of outcomes may occur, the two extremes being that everyone stays healthy this year, they compete for (and possibly win) a championship, the continue to play well for another year or two, and a few of the prospects hit and this team rebuilds on the fly. If that\'s the case, then obviously, Ruben stays.
\r\n
\r\nThe opposite outcome is that Utley and Doc can\'t stay healthy, Howard and Rollins continue to decline, and the team hovers at or below .500 again. If that\'s the case then they have to make decisions on Utley and Halladay, the team probably goes nowhere, and it becomes clear that Ruben has to go.
\r\n
\r\nThe in between situations consist of the Phillies remaining somewhat competitive, but the farm doesn\'t produce bona fide prospects/trade chips, and so Ruben cannot improve the team in any significant way. In this case, the team slowly flames out until Howard\'s contract is up. If this happens then the Phils are pretty much in the same limbo that they\'re in now. Firing Ruben during a period like this would have some symbolic value, but there isn\'t much you can ask another GM to do (besides signing whatever free agent comes on the market, and you\'re still talking about outbidding other teams with what would be a pretty undesirable free agent situation in Philly).
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\r\nRuben bet on the core, and because of that, his fate is essentially tied to that of the core.
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i have to agree with what you said. im just frustrated the team hasnt addressed their need for power in the lineup for years now.\r\n
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\r\n I don\'t really think that\'s true at all. Ruben seems to have executed the vision of his betters (for better or worse). The Phillies have shown in the past that they won\'t punish a company man until it\'s blatantly obvious that he\'s incompetent. Whatever complaints we have about Ruben, incompetence isn\'t really one of them.
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\nA lot of people assume that the buck stops with the GM, but that\'s not necessarily true - it depends on the organization.
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\nBarring an unforeseen or unknown internal argument, I think Ruben has about 5 years to turn things around before his job security can be questioned.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\n The key is for Ruben to continue to learn from his mistakes. His seemingly worst quality - signing certain players to above market contracts at the earliest opportunity - is quite possibly the product of his superiors.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\n Man you guys should have lived through the 80s-90s then you would have a GM and front office to ***** about.\r\n
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Originally Posted by
genetic freak\r\n

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Man you guys should have lived through the 80s-90s then you would have a GM and front office to ***** about.
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I did, and i finally thought the organization turned the corner and I believe it has. What this all comes down to is a difference in philosophy.
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\r\nThis front office believes in putting its resources in pitching while hoping to hit on cheap offensive solutions or a young player.
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\r\nWhere I believe you have enough pitching with Halladay lee hamels and paps that the bulk of the remaining budget should be used to acquire a bona fide power threat. If this team can average 4 runs a game with this staff they will have a better chance of winning then trying to hold teams under 2.5 runs a game.
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\r\nWith the way the ball carries at the Bank, I think building a roster that exploits your home field where you play 81 games a year makes a lot of sense.\r\n
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\r\n k_dol, another problem with your post is that you are crediting/debiting Ruben based on factors outside of his control. He should not be cheered if the team produces a World Series, because he\'s built a roster that should win 80-85 and has a high variance due to a lot of risky properties.
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\nSimilarly, he should not be jeered if the team wins 65 games. That being because he\'s built a roster that should win 80-85 and has a high variance due to a lot of risky properties.
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\nThe result is irrelevant. Process is all that matters.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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Originally Posted by
The A Team\r\n

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k_dol, another problem with your post is that you are crediting/debiting Ruben based on factors outside of his control. He should not be cheered if the team produces a World Series, because he\'s built a roster that should win 80-85 and has a high variance due to a lot of risky properties.
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\r\nSimilarly, he should not be jeered if the team wins 65 games. That being because he\'s built a roster that should win 80-85 and has a high variance due to a lot of risky properties.
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\r\nThe result is irrelevant. Process is all that matters.
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Sorry, I wasn\'t trying to imply a direct cause/effect relationship there. The main thing that I was trying to say is that firing Ruben wouldn\'t make sense right now from the perspective that it wouldn\'t accomplish anything. I guess that is along the same lines as your point that simply winning a World Series or failing to do so is not necessarily indicative of his success. I wasn\'t trying to suggest that he should get fired in the next couple years if the core collapses and the team takes a step backwards. Rather, I would say that it would only be justifiable if that happens.
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\r\nI think most people\'s frustration with Ruben comes from the fact that they think that someone higher up should be accountable for organizational failures. Granted, missing the playoffs once in the last six years is hardly an organizational failure, but I think when you combine that with what appears to be a reluctance to go for broke to improve the team next year, people see the potential for darker times ahead that will demand such accountability. In sports, that accountability when players fail on the field comes from the coach/manager or the GM. Given Charlie\'s age and the understanding that this will likely be his last season and the fact that the frustration at the moment has more to do with the makeup of the roster than its performance (I\'m sure that will come once we\'re in May and Jimmy is popping up first pitches), Ruben is going to take that flak.
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\r\nI happen to be more optimistic about the outfield situation than those calling for Ruben\'s head, but I certainly understand the frustration.\r\n
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\r\nLearning to love the bomb since 2009
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Phils,
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Flyers
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\r\n Where there is room to argue is if Ruben has a more accurate perspective on a player\'s talent. In cases where we\'re looking primarily at injury risk/attrition, those numbers can be easily calculated by an outsider like me.
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\nSo basically, if they tinker with Lannan and Kendrick and they both become 4 win pitchers, kudos Ruben and company. If they succeed because Utley, Howard, Rollins, Young, Chooch, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Papelbon stay healthy - congrats on being extremely lucky, but Ruben and friends shouldn\'t get any extra plaudits.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n Let\'s put #27 another way. If you grade somebody based on results - then you will allocate resources inefficiently. If you grade based on process - then you will allocate resources efficiently.
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\nIdeally, you actually should grade on a blend of the two, since grading process can be prone to errors. Ostensibly, results have some signal about the quality of the process - it\'s just not a perfect (or even relatively high) correlation.
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\nSo grading purely on results is bad. Grading purely on process is better. Grading on a combination is best. That\'s an easy concept that every baseball executive understands intuitively.
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\nProfessional sports adds a twist in that fans tend to be irrational and baseball executives earn money based on their whims. So there is pressure to grade results more heavily than they should be.
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\nThe Phillies have a history of completely ignoring that fan pressure when it comes to GM\'s. Of course, it\'s a small sample.\r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n A-Team if the phillies have another mediocre season and miss the playoffs again, would you begin a fire sale (or jut some of our more expensive pieces) to rebuild the farm?\r\n
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\r\nBring on our 3rd WS ring, our first Super Bowl win, 4th NBA Championship, and 3rd Stanley Cup

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\r\n It really depends on how they produce that mediocre season. I could make up scenarios where I would and scenarios where I wouldn\'t.
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\nSomething to keep in mind - fire sales are a good way to free up payroll, but they rarely return massive amounts of future talent. For every time Mark Mulder produces Dan Haren, there are two Johan Santana for garbage deals (roughly speaking).
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\nIf they were to deal Rollins, Howard, Lee, and Hamels, they could probably count on returning only one 4 win/season prospect.
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\nThey\'re also not in the best position for a fire sale, since Halladay, Utley, and Ruiz would be hitting free agency in that scenario.\r\n
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\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n \r\n Last edited by The A Team; 12-24-2012 at 11:09 AM.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n
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Now writing for The Hardball Times
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\r\nFollow me on Twitter for article updates @baseballATeam
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\r\n So what now everybody\'s got to kiss ATeam\'s ring around here?\r\n
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PROUD CHARTER MEMBER: Phillies PSD HAll of Fame, Class of \'08.\r\n

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ALL YOUR ACE ARE BELONG TO US.
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\r\n Haha from what I have been told whatever A-Team says is law. So i dont disagree with him\r\n
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// next/previous post info
pn[24833944] = "24853102,24834165";
pn[0] = ",24833944";
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pn[24849109] = "24849030,24849080";
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pn[24849102] = "24849090,24849138";
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// cached usernames
pu[0] = guestphrase;
pu[10588] = "Philsforever";
pu[43544] = "bowan1228";
pu[9092] = "The A Team";
pu[24053] = "IBleedRed(duh)";
pu[74488] = "MudinyourEye";
pu[181819] = "11MVPPatBurrell";
pu[60337] = "k_dol50";
pu[15442] = "genetic freak";
pu[25865] = "Phillzfan1126";
pu[10043] = "Ender";
// -->
-
A-Team if the phillies have another mediocre season and miss the playoffs again, would you begin a fire sale (or jut some of our more expensive pieces) to rebuild the farm?
Bring on our 3rd WS ring, our first Super Bowl win, 4th NBA Championship, and 3rd Stanley Cup
