Who's #2? Morrow or Johnson???

[LeafsFan16]

Johnson would make more sense at 2, his career era is 3.10 compared to Morrow's 4.10 they both have similar s.o/9( morrow a little higher) and bb/9. IF Johnson can stay healthy for a season I think he can be a potential cy young award candidate plus as mentioned earlier its a contract year for him

what would their ERA's be if Morrow pitched in the NL and Johnson in the AL East over their careers?

[town123]

I would put Morrow in the 2 spot only because JJ will have to face 9 hitters instead of 8 this year. Having no break in the lineup might take some getting used to.

[LechWalesa]

We don't even know for sure what we have with Josh Johnson yet. We know Morrow can throw complete games and keep the score low. To me there is no question he is our #2.

[hendrix]

Not buying into the "luck" theory. Who's to say the BAPIP didn't drop dramatically because he had figured things out?

Because his 2010 babip was un-sustainably high, and this year was un-sustainably low. Meaning, no pitcher in history has ever been that high (2010) or low (2012) over any decent sample size.

Very few pitchers are able to induce weak contact enough to make any meaningful drop under .300 babip. Knuckleballers seem to be the best at it, but they are still generally in and around the .270's. Out of regular pitchers one of the best seems to be Buehrle, who has a .289 career babip. So, if he's one of the best at it, how could a babip of .252 be anything other than luck?

it's not easy to put up a BAPIP like that over than many innings.

'ease' has nothing to do with it. Luck does. And, it happens all the time over small samples of 120 innings

Johnson said it himself(prior to Dickey) that Morrow was the ace of the staff.

PR talk is pretty meaningless.

[Twitchy]

Not buying into the "luck" theory. Who's to say the BAPIP didn't drop dramatically because he had figured things out? it's not easy to put up a BAPIP like that over than many innings. Eventually it will catch up if you're missing your spots. He also puts up K's and has great velocity and movement. Johnson said it himself(prior to Dickey) that Morrow was the ace of the staff.

Generally speaking the only players capable of sustaining a BABIP lower than 280 over a significant period of time (800-1000 innings, if not more) are guys who throw knuckleballs and change ups. I looked between 1990-2012 for anybody with a career BABIP lower than 270, and on top of being a fairly small list, it's virtually all change ups & knuckleballers.

Modern pitchers include:

Jeremy Hellickson (244 career, but 2 years at 260) - Change Up thrown 29.9% of the time.

Charlie Hough - 253 BABIP, knuckleball

Matt Cain - Change up is one of his top pitches.

Shaun Marcum - 268 BABIP...and known for his change.

Jered Weaver - Change up is his next best pitch

Barry Zito - Better known for his curve, his change has been one of his best pitches. Also has played in spacious parks allowing them to cut down on the BABIP.

Ted Lilly - Another change up guy.

Johan Santana - Famous for, you guessed it, the change up.

Tim Wakefield - 274 BABIP over that time, and throws a knuckler.

There are exceptions, but generally speaking you need to have a change up or knuckleball, a pitch that can mess with a hitters timing and succeeds because of that in order to have a lower than average BABIP. Guys like Morrow who pile on the strikeouts generally aren't able to reduce the BABIP consistently.

Makes sense when you think about it - when Morrow succeeds it's by getting strikeouts, which aren't included in BABIP because it's not a ball put in play. If Morrow allows contact then the hitter gets it right on, making solid contact. A guy like Marcum doesn't allow as much "solid contact" as someone like Morrow, because the hitter is looking fastball and ends up hitting a change. Morrow doesn't change speeds as much, which is why the hitter could make more consistent/solid contact.

I don't want this to sound like Marcum or change up pitchers are better than Morrow, just that they succeed in different ways. And it's just not likely that Morrow's success will be based on posting a low BABIP. And I just don't see Morrow coming close to a 250 BABIP ever again.

[town123]

To think we started last year with:

Romero
Morrow
Carreno
Alvarez
Drabek

Carreno went to LV, Laffey came up.

This year?

Dickey
Morrow
Bark Muehrle
JJ
Romero

[jaysnraptors44]

Have you tried watching him pitch? That should start to give you an idea....

Yea I have seen him pitch thank you. I never said he was a bad pitcher .. Just that he's not a better pitcher then Johnson .. I think Johnson is the clear cut #2

[heusy_79]

Yea I have seen him pitch thank you. I never said he was a bad pitcher .. Just that he's not a better pitcher then Johnson .. I think Johnson is the clear cut #2

Right but said you don't understand all the love for Morrow. There are a very select few pitchers who can dominate batters like Morrow does when he's healthy and on his game. The "love" comes from the fact that he flashes Cy Young type stuff and just needs to put it together for a full year.

[town123]

I guess a little levity concerning last years staff didn't work.

[LanceUpperCut]

Just imagine having both Morrow and JJ at the top of their game.ray:
I really don't know who would be better.

[jaysnraptors44]

Right but said you don't understand all the love for Morrow. There are a very select few pitchers who can dominate batters like Morrow does when he's healthy and on his game. The "love" comes from the fact that he flashes Cy Young type stuff and just needs to put it together for a full year.

There's no doubt that his stuff is great but maybe there's to much love in this forum for him. This guy has only had one good season which was last year and he is being put above guys like Johnson and Dickey

[wagnall]

I like Morrow but Johnson has pitched better to this point in their careers. I would set it up like this
Dickey
Johnson
Romero
Morrow
Beurhle
Where does Happ fit in on this team?

If 1 of those 5 guys blows a tire, other than that #6 guy, the longman in the BP.

[Shifty1 69]

Someone is 1 and someone is 5. If your going R,L,R,L,R and barring injury, which is unlikely, as it happens., everyone gets 30+ starts. It won't matter who is slotted where, but if we are going R/L then either Romero or Buehrle is at 2.

Not worth it. In that scenario you will still have 2 righties back to back 5 and 1. With the knuckler going 1, then a righty next doesn't matter as its night and day as far a the look and timing of pitchers.

I love the mix of styles and l/r, from knuckle to RH power to LH back to RH power to another LH to knuckle. If there's any real benefit to staggering types of pitcher from day to day (not sure if it really makes any difference, kinda like overblown myth of lineup protection IMO.)
Damn April can't come fast enough.

[Korac]

I don't think it really makes much of a difference except in the ego department. I would give it to Johnson based on previous track record, but in the grand scheme of things it's just a number and means very little.

I will say it's a nice problem to have.

#firstworldproblems

[rapsjaysfan88]

If jj's shoulder issues are behind him and his velocity ticks back up, watch out, scary stuff.