Cubs sign Edwin Jackson, four years/52 million

[northsider]

Edwin Jackson is Gavin Floyd. Would you give Floyd $52M over 4 years? Floyd actually has a tad better numbers while playing in a hitter's park over the past 5 years.

I just think it is an overpay for a #4 starter on a team that won't be fighting for a playoff spot.

You realize that the market has climbed over the years and doesn't ever look to maintain.

Any team in a position to spend money to acquire assets should always do just that cause sitting on it does absolutely no good.

If this contract somehow strapped us then sure however it's not remotely coming close to restricting a ball club that can be tops in payroll.

You don't sit around and wait for a bunch of lottery tickets to fill out a club. You should always be looking to improve which I don't see how you can say they didn't regardless of playoff stance this year or not.

In this market that is not an over pay unless you are nit picking to nit pick. Gavin Floyd won't be going for 5 million per again.

[northsider]

I mean you did see what Anibal Sanchez demanded right? In light of that I don't see how you can call this an over pay at all.

[Str1fe5]

That Cubs team was 2nd in the NL in runs allowed. The rotation then was decidedly better then than it's expected to be here in 2013. Don't fool yourself.

I also think Jackson is considerably better than a 4/5, but this rotation isn't all that much better on paper at this juncture than it was last year. Jackson replaces Dempster and the better of Feldman/Baker replaces Maholm. On paper, Villanueva doesn't appear to be all that more exciting than Volstad was, and Wood is still Wood.

And Rizzo, as nice as he was, cooled off quite a bit after his scorching start. Still a solid player, but an .800 to .850 OPS is pretty much the production that LaHair had through the end of June. More time from Castillo, Shuerholtz is replacing Marlon Byrd... and that's pretty much the additions to the 2013 roster. It just doesn't add up to much. There are still a few players to had out there, and there's certainly going to be some regression to the mean, but this Cubs team still projects out to be one of the 5 or 6 worst in baseball as it currently stands.

[ABTY7]

I mean you did see what Anibal Sanchez demanded right? In light of that I don't see how you can call this an over pay at all.

Multiple sources have told me that this Jackson deal is about as good as any signed this offseason...

[Tryptamine]

Edwin Jackson is Gavin Floyd. Would you give Floyd $52M over 4 years? Floyd actually has a tad better numbers while playing in a hitter's park over the past 5 years.

I just think it is an overpay for a #4 starter on a team that won't be fighting for a playoff spot.

2012:
Gavin Floyd FIP 4.46 xFIP 4.26 SIERA 4.07 fWAR 2.0 IP 168
Edwin Jackson FIP 3.85 xFIP 3.79 SIERA 3.75 fWAR 2.7 IP 189.2


To answer your question, if Floyd was coming off of his 2011 I absolutely would have. Unfortunately his 2012 was just not very good so at this point no I wouldn't.

[ABTY7]

That Cubs team was 2nd in the NL in runs allowed. The rotation then was decidedly better then than it's expected to be here in 2013. Don't fool yourself.

I also think Jackson is considerably better than a 4/5, but this rotation isn't all that much better on paper at this juncture than it was last year. Jackson replaces Dempster and the better of Feldman/Baker replaces Maholm. On paper, Villanueva doesn't appear to be all that more exciting than Volstad was, and Wood is still Wood.

And Rizzo, as nice as he was, cooled off quite a bit after his scorching start. Still a solid player, but an .800 to .850 OPS is pretty much the production that LaHair had through the end of June. More time from Castillo, Shuerholtz is replacing Marlon Byrd... and that's pretty much the additions to the 2013 roster. It just doesn't add up to much. There are still a few players to had out there, and there's certainly going to be some regression to the mean, but this Cubs team still projects out to be one of the 5 or 6 worst in baseball as it currently stands.

You're not accounting for so many things... to just broadly stoke 'Castillo, Schierholtz replaces Marlon Byrd' or 'Rizzo to a Hot LaHair' negates defensive and situational values so much it's painful...

[TyrionLannister]

A Garza/Jackson/Villanueva/Shark/Feldman rotation with Wood and Baker as depth/bullpen help is solid. If Villanueva can stick as a starter this can potentially be a legitimately good rotation.

[La_Biblioteca]

A Garza/Jackson/Villanueva/Shark/Feldman rotation with Wood and Baker as depth/bullpen help is solid. If Villanueva can stick as a starter this can potentially be a legitimately good rotation.

Why would Baker not be in the rotation?

[TyrionLannister]

Why would Baker not be in the rotation?

Coming off TJ surgery I think they might have him start off in AAA or the bullpen for rehab if his ST is underwhelming.

That's just me taking a shot in the dark though so don't take my word for it.

[Tryptamine]

Why would Baker not be in the rotation?

Yeah, at this point I'm quite sure it's going to be Villanueva and Wood as the odd men out unless Baker isn't ready or someone gets hurt.

[DavidH]

Okay, but you have to look at that individual season for it to mean anything. Obviously long term, it's pretty similar. But in 2008, the players as they played THAT season will never be touched with the group we have.

Or, it might, because you never would've expected those guys (Dempster especially) to be as good as they ended up being that year.

Going into that season, I was livid that Dempster was going to start for us. I expected him be terrible. Many felt this way.


So, yea, there are plenty of candidates in this rotation to have great years like that. Shark, Garza, and Jackson all can do it. Hell, even Baker could be surprisingly good (for a rehab year).

[DavidH]

Hey, we all thank you just as much. Symbiotic relationship. We'll keep giving you baseball discussion.

I keep coming here for the same things. News and banter. Honestly, over the last 6 years I've been on here, I've realized that I can no longer talk baseball with my friends. It doesn't "do it" for me because they have no clue what Im talking about.

It's really hard to talk baseball with people in real life once you've become an internet baseball nerd.

Really.

[La_Biblioteca]

Or, it might, because you never would've expected those guys (Dempster especially) to be as good as they ended up being that year.

Going into that season, I was livid that Dempster was going to start for us. I expected him be terrible. Many felt this way.


So, yea, there are plenty of candidates in this rotation to have great years like that. Shark, Garza, and Jackson all can do it. Hell, even Baker could be surprisingly good (for a rehab year).

Well, no, that's not exactly true. You can't just say you expect someone to have seasons like the ones the Cubs had in 08. It's true that it's possible, however extremely unlikely. It's also not entirely true because up until that point, Zambrano and Harden were legit aces. So, I don't know, I guess I just disagree.

[Tryptamine]

It's really hard to talk baseball with people in real life once you've become an internet baseball nerd.

Really.

It really is. I truthfully get sick of just pretending to agree with what my friends say because I know that going through the stats isn't worth the time. I am pretty happy that I've almost converted one of them to the saber side.

[DavidH]

Well, no, that's not exactly true. You can't just say you expect someone to have seasons like the ones the Cubs had in 08. It's true that it's possible, however extremely unlikely. It's also not entirely true because up until that point, Zambrano and Harden were legit aces. So, I don't know, I guess I just disagree.

Did I say I expected anything?

You said it wouldn't be as good. I said it might because there is a lot of upside in the top 3 of the rotation.