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  1. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    Edwin Jackson is Gavin Floyd. Would you give Floyd $52M over 4 years? Floyd actually has a tad better numbers while playing in a hitter's park over the past 5 years.

    I just think it is an overpay for a #4 starter on a team that won't be fighting for a playoff spot.
    Jackson was better last season. I still think it's too early to say we won't be fighting for a playoff spot next year with so much time left in this off-season. No one knows what moves the Cubs front office will make. I really don't think it's an overpay, and he'll still be a solid 3/great 4 if it takes a couple years to contend.

  2. #167
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    I mean you did see what Anibal Sanchez demanded right? In light of that I don't see how you can call this an over pay at all.

  3. #168
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    That Cubs team was 2nd in the NL in runs allowed. The rotation then was decidedly better then than it's expected to be here in 2013. Don't fool yourself.

    I also think Jackson is considerably better than a 4/5, but this rotation isn't all that much better on paper at this juncture than it was last year. Jackson replaces Dempster and the better of Feldman/Baker replaces Maholm. On paper, Villanueva doesn't appear to be all that more exciting than Volstad was, and Wood is still Wood.

    And Rizzo, as nice as he was, cooled off quite a bit after his scorching start. Still a solid player, but an .800 to .850 OPS is pretty much the production that LaHair had through the end of June. More time from Castillo, Shuerholtz is replacing Marlon Byrd... and that's pretty much the additions to the 2013 roster. It just doesn't add up to much. There are still a few players to had out there, and there's certainly going to be some regression to the mean, but this Cubs team still projects out to be one of the 5 or 6 worst in baseball as it currently stands.

    OOTP TKO League Milwaukee Brewers 2010-2032:
    2011-1655, .549 Win %
    10 NL Central Titles, 2 Wild Card 12 Total Playoff Appearances
    1 World Series Title (2021)



    Now you can luxuriate in a nice jail cell, but if your hand touches metal, I swear by my pretty floral bonnet: I will end you.

    -Malcolm Reynolds


  4. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by northsider View Post
    I mean you did see what Anibal Sanchez demanded right? In light of that I don't see how you can call this an over pay at all.
    Multiple sources have told me that this Jackson deal is about as good as any signed this offseason...
    Ombudsman

  5. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by sager729 View Post
    Edwin Jackson is Gavin Floyd. Would you give Floyd $52M over 4 years? Floyd actually has a tad better numbers while playing in a hitter's park over the past 5 years.

    I just think it is an overpay for a #4 starter on a team that won't be fighting for a playoff spot.
    2012:
    Gavin Floyd FIP 4.46 xFIP 4.26 SIERA 4.07 fWAR 2.0 IP 168
    Edwin Jackson FIP 3.85 xFIP 3.79 SIERA 3.75 fWAR 2.7 IP 189.2


    To answer your question, if Floyd was coming off of his 2011 I absolutely would have. Unfortunately his 2012 was just not very good so at this point no I wouldn't.

  6. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by Str1fe5 View Post
    That Cubs team was 2nd in the NL in runs allowed. The rotation then was decidedly better then than it's expected to be here in 2013. Don't fool yourself.

    I also think Jackson is considerably better than a 4/5, but this rotation isn't all that much better on paper at this juncture than it was last year. Jackson replaces Dempster and the better of Feldman/Baker replaces Maholm. On paper, Villanueva doesn't appear to be all that more exciting than Volstad was, and Wood is still Wood.

    And Rizzo, as nice as he was, cooled off quite a bit after his scorching start. Still a solid player, but an .800 to .850 OPS is pretty much the production that LaHair had through the end of June. More time from Castillo, Shuerholtz is replacing Marlon Byrd... and that's pretty much the additions to the 2013 roster. It just doesn't add up to much. There are still a few players to had out there, and there's certainly going to be some regression to the mean, but this Cubs team still projects out to be one of the 5 or 6 worst in baseball as it currently stands.
    You're not accounting for so many things... to just broadly stoke 'Castillo, Schierholtz replaces Marlon Byrd' or 'Rizzo to a Hot LaHair' negates defensive and situational values so much it's painful...
    Ombudsman

  7. #172
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    A Garza/Jackson/Villanueva/Shark/Feldman rotation with Wood and Baker as depth/bullpen help is solid. If Villanueva can stick as a starter this can potentially be a legitimately good rotation.

  8. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by TyrionLannister View Post
    A Garza/Jackson/Villanueva/Shark/Feldman rotation with Wood and Baker as depth/bullpen help is solid. If Villanueva can stick as a starter this can potentially be a legitimately good rotation.
    Why would Baker not be in the rotation?

  9. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_Biblioteca View Post
    Why would Baker not be in the rotation?
    Coming off TJ surgery I think they might have him start off in AAA or the bullpen for rehab if his ST is underwhelming.

    That's just me taking a shot in the dark though so don't take my word for it.

  10. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_Biblioteca View Post
    Why would Baker not be in the rotation?
    Yeah, at this point I'm quite sure it's going to be Villanueva and Wood as the odd men out unless Baker isn't ready or someone gets hurt.

  11. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_Biblioteca View Post
    Okay, but you have to look at that individual season for it to mean anything. Obviously long term, it's pretty similar. But in 2008, the players as they played THAT season will never be touched with the group we have.
    Or, it might, because you never would've expected those guys (Dempster especially) to be as good as they ended up being that year.

    Going into that season, I was livid that Dempster was going to start for us. I expected him be terrible. Many felt this way.


    So, yea, there are plenty of candidates in this rotation to have great years like that. Shark, Garza, and Jackson all can do it. Hell, even Baker could be surprisingly good (for a rehab year).

  12. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Hey, we all thank you just as much. Symbiotic relationship. We'll keep giving you baseball discussion.

    I keep coming here for the same things. News and banter. Honestly, over the last 6 years I've been on here, I've realized that I can no longer talk baseball with my friends. It doesn't "do it" for me because they have no clue what Im talking about.
    It's really hard to talk baseball with people in real life once you've become an internet baseball nerd.

    Really.

  13. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidH View Post
    Or, it might, because you never would've expected those guys (Dempster especially) to be as good as they ended up being that year.

    Going into that season, I was livid that Dempster was going to start for us. I expected him be terrible. Many felt this way.


    So, yea, there are plenty of candidates in this rotation to have great years like that. Shark, Garza, and Jackson all can do it. Hell, even Baker could be surprisingly good (for a rehab year).
    Well, no, that's not exactly true. You can't just say you expect someone to have seasons like the ones the Cubs had in 08. It's true that it's possible, however extremely unlikely. It's also not entirely true because up until that point, Zambrano and Harden were legit aces. So, I don't know, I guess I just disagree.

  14. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidH View Post
    It's really hard to talk baseball with people in real life once you've become an internet baseball nerd.

    Really.
    It really is. I truthfully get sick of just pretending to agree with what my friends say because I know that going through the stats isn't worth the time. I am pretty happy that I've almost converted one of them to the saber side.

  15. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by La_Biblioteca View Post
    Well, no, that's not exactly true. You can't just say you expect someone to have seasons like the ones the Cubs had in 08. It's true that it's possible, however extremely unlikely. It's also not entirely true because up until that point, Zambrano and Harden were legit aces. So, I don't know, I guess I just disagree.
    Did I say I expected anything?

    You said it wouldn't be as good. I said it might because there is a lot of upside in the top 3 of the rotation.

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