Well, I disagree with your conclusion that the 49ers couldn't win the Super Bowl with Alex Smith. Alex Smith led them to the NFC Championship last year and a fg away from winning it with Brett Swain as the #2 WR and Joe Hastings as the #3 WR. With the roster additions and Alex's improved play this year (he's definitely playing better this year than last year), the 49ers could definitely have won the Super Bowl with Alex Smith. However, I think that they have a better chance of winning it with Colin Kaepernick.
He didn't have what I would call stellar WR corps for sure. KW started that game though I think. Anyway...the issues came with missed opportunities. That's why I don't have faith in Smith. His hesitation cost them pts early. With the score coming down to an OT field goal like you said...they would have been the difference. KW cost them in OT...but like I and many other writers/columnists/analysts (Billick/Maiocco/Cosell of the top of my head) have said...there were opportunities to be had in that NFCC game that Smith passed on. Not missed!! Passed on! That means he saw them...and decided not to throw if for some reason. That does NOT mean Smith sucks...it just means he doesn't have that killer instinct. That moxie. That "I'm gonna kick your *** and there's nothing you can do to stop me" attitude. Bill Parcells..."you gotta have balls to win this game" referring to the SB. Well...Smith plays hard...there's just something not quite there.
Even so though...I didn't say the Niners "would not" win with Smtih. I said they wouldn't unless something unusual happened. They would have to have something favorable happen "for" them. A muffed punt, or snap over a punter's head. Think opponents mistakes. The NO game for example...Goldson's INT was beautiful and Fangio did a good job with the play call. Look at the replay of the EZ angle though. Brees pumped to the guy he's gonna throw to. Very dumb unless it's a sluggo or something. The throw was very late and high school level behind the WR. That's an extremely unusual anamoly. It benefited the Niners and I don't have a problem with it...but it's something unusual that literally gift wrapped 7 pts for SF. The Niners won by 4 on nearly the last play. What happens without that gift wrapped TD? Every single player to include Brady Manning, Brees make mistakes. He made 4 on the same play though. How often does that really happen?
I don't use the nickname "Kap". I spell it Kaep because Kaepernick is too long to write all the time. I don't like all the goofy nicknames people get like Megatron, Pacman, Cadillac, Muscle Hamster...all that is kinda out there to me. I'm not knocking it...I just don't use it.