Interesting stat comparisons and projections ...

[mudvayne387]

Bored at work so I messed around with Kapernick's and Smith's stats.

I took the first 5 games Kaepernick started plus the Rams game where he came in to replace an injured Smith.

I then took Smiths first 6 starts of the season.

I did this to show you how similar their stats really are. This is not a Kaep vs Smith who should be starting thread, this was done to show you that no matter who is at the QB position, the outcome is nearly the same. I think this could be attributed to the play calling, however we did see more of a wide open offense this past Sunday vs the Pats (Hopefully a sign of things to come)

Had Kaepernick played a full 16 game schedule, I think you would be surprised to see just how close his numbers would have been to RGIII's in Washington.

Had Smith played a full season, your looking at another 2011 campaign but with a few more Passing TD's and Int's thrown.

CK First 5 Starts + Rams Game:

Wins:4
Losses:1
Ties:1
CMP%: 66.4%
Passing Yards: 1200
Passing Yards/Game: 200
Avg Yards: 8.31
TD: 7
INT: 2
Passer Rating: 100
Rushing Yards: 268
Rushing TD's: 3

AS First 6 Starts

Wins:4
Losses:2
CMP%: 67.6%
Passing Yards: 1287
Passing Yards/Game: 214.5
Avg Yards: 7.9
TD: 8
INT: 4
Passer Rating: 98.7
Rushing Yards: 112
Rushing TD's: 0

To sum things up, the 49ers are in a nice position for the future. Teams in need of a QB will look at Smith's production over the previous two seasons and potentially build a system around him (Ground and Pound type offense with quick passes) I don't think a third round pick is out of the question considering what other teams have been giving up to get less talented QB's the past few years.

[rapjuicer06]

Yea, I did all these stats in another thread. They are pretty identical for the most part

[mudvayne387]

Yea, I did all these stats in another thread. They are pretty identical for the most part

Sorry ! Must have missed that ...

[rapjuicer06]

It probably got backed up some where. I think it's a freaking insane stat. But it's also stupid on how the coaches coach them exactly the same when they have completely different playing styles

[Lakers211221]

I'd like to see the stats if you take the Buffalo game out of the stats. Kap didn't get the benefit to his stats to play the absolute worst defense in the NFL. The Bills have given up 35 or more points 6 times this year and are giving up an average of 28.7 points per game (worst in the NFL-tied with Oakland). Their numbers wouldn't be so similar without that game.

[NinerHomer49]

I wouldn't take away the Bills game. I mean, he did play a great game. Watching Smith play teams like Seattle and the Giants and watching how Kaep played vs Chi, NO and NE...it's just a different team. I'm not saying he's Montana...but guys like Montana were so good because everyone else just seemed to play better when he was there. The whole...make the guys around you better thing. Smith is a class act, but just doesn't have that kind of moxie.

[Lakers211221]

I wouldn't take away the Bills game. I mean, he did play a great game. Watching Smith play teams like Seattle and the Giants and watching how Kaep played vs Chi, NO and NE...it's just a different team. I'm not saying he's Montana...but guys like Montana were so good because everyone else just seemed to play better when he was there. The whole...make the guys around you better thing. Smith is a class act, but just doesn't have that kind of moxie.

I'm not saying Alex didn't play a great game in the Bills game. What I'm saying is that his stats are inflated by that 1 game against an awful defense.

[NinerHomer49]

I'm not saying Alex didn't play a great game in the Bills game. What I'm saying is that his stats are inflated by that 1 game against an awful defense.

That's true. They are pretty bad. Smith had 3 TDs vs them. I only mention that because...he's never had a 4 TD game in his career. Kaep did in his 6th career start.

[Lakers211221]

I also noticed that by only using Alex's first 6 starts, it is conveniently excluding the Seahawks game where Alex put up about 7% lower completion % from his average, 1 TD and 1 INT, and a passer rating of 74.5. Plug the Seahawks game in place of the Bills game and then tell me what their stats are. This is ridiculous.

[NinerHomer49]

I also noticed that by only using Alex's first 6 starts, it is conveniently excluding the Seahawks game where Alex put up about 7% lower completion % from his average, 1 TD and 1 INT, and a passer rating of 74.5. Plug the Seahawks game in place of the Bills game and then tell me what their stats are. This is ridiculous.

Well, they used his first 6 because Kaep only has 6. Anyway, we'll get a chance to see how Kaep does vs Seattle this week. It's tougher on the road, but Seattle may be without their top 2 CBs so I think it kind of evens out. Not as easy for Seattle though. There is some tape out there on Kaepernick, but the thing that makes Kaep dangerous in my opinion is the things you can't practice for. His escapability, ability to throw on the run and ability to take a busted pocket and turn it into a 50 yd run. Seattle has some great LBs too so it'll be pretty interesting to see how they deal with Kaep's foot speed.

[mudvayne387]

I also noticed that by only using Alex's first 6 starts, it is conveniently excluding the Seahawks game where Alex put up about 7% lower completion % from his average, 1 TD and 1 INT, and a passer rating of 74.5. Plug the Seahawks game in place of the Bills game and then tell me what their stats are. This is ridiculous.

I didn't exclude it because I'm a Smith fan, I excluded it because Kaep has only had 5 starts plus a chunk of another game. After Sunday nights game I will revise them and add both Seattle games to the mix.

Also, Smiths stats may be inflated because of the Bills game, but Kaep also had the opportunity to play against a Saints D that is historically bad.

[NinerHomer49]

I didn't exclude it because I'm a Smith fan, I excluded it because Kaep has only had 5 starts plus a chunk of another game. After Sunday nights game I will revise them and add both Seattle games to the mix.

Also, Smiths stats may be inflated because of the Bills game, but Kaep also had the opportunity to play against a Saints D that is historically bad.

True, but NO had been playing better in recent weeks with the return of a few players and the Bills game was at home while the Saints game was in the Superdome. Both were cross country games so the road team had a distinct disadvantage. The Saints had also won 4 in a row I think to get back to .500 and the Patriots of course never lose in December. Nobody is taking away that Alex played great...but Kaep has clearly had the tougher road and has put up pretty much the same stats. 6 starts...compared to 8 yrs of experience.

[mudvayne387]

True, but NO had been playing better in recent weeks with the return of a few players and the Bills game was at home while the Saints game was in the Superdome. Both were cross country games so the road team had a distinct disadvantage. The Saints had also won 4 in a row I think to get back to .500 and the Patriots of course never lose in December. Nobody is taking away that Alex played great...but Kaep has clearly had the tougher road and has put up pretty much the same stats. 6 starts...compared to 8 yrs of experience.

Agree 100%

[Lakers211221]

Let's take a look at their overall stats by including every game they have played in aside from the Bills game (which inflated Alex's stats due to how bad the Bills are on defense-as previously mentioned tied for worst in the NFL). To make it fair, I'll also take Kaepernick's stats off of that game including his TD run. The Rams game will count as a half game for each of them:

Alex Smith:

69.4% completions
190.4 yards passing per game
10 total passing TDs (1.33 per game)
7.4 passing yards per attempt
5 total interceptions (0.67 per game)
QB Rating 97.2
11.33 yards rushing per game
3.3 yards per rushing attempt
0 rushing TDs (0 per game)
1.33 total TDs per game

Colin Kaepernick:

65.4% completions
234.4 yards passing per game
Passing TDs: 7 (2.27 per game)
8.4 passing yards per attempt
2 total interceptions (0.36 per game)
QB Rating 101.3
61.8 yards rushing per game
6.9 yards per rushing attempt
4 rushing TDs (0.73 per game)
3 total TDs per game

[Lakers211221]

I didn't exclude it because I'm a Smith fan, I excluded it because Kaep has only had 5 starts plus a chunk of another game. After Sunday nights game I will revise them and add both Seattle games to the mix.

Also, Smiths stats may be inflated because of the Bills game, but Kaep also had the opportunity to play against a Saints D that is historically bad.

And, Alex got the Lions who give up identical points per game as the Saints.