Red Sox might not trade Ellsbury, might be leaning towards taking pick

[MoVaughnsLunch]

Allstar center fielder....who doesn't like playing for us. Boras has also said he will absolutely get to free agency. Of ells fools the MLB into thinking he's healthy. Great.. Then trade him at the deadline. There is [B]no[B]scenario where he plays in Boston next year.

Accept that please

[Bama Sox]

Allstar center fielder....who doesn't like playing for us. Boras has also said he will absolutely get to free agency. Of ells fools the MLB into thinking he's healthy. Great.. Then trade him at the deadline. There is [B]no[B]scenario where he plays in Boston next year.

Accept that please

I wouldn't say he doesn't like playing for Boston but the fact Boras is his agent means he'll be in the exact same position Michael Bourn is currently in, this time next year. 30-year centerfielder with some inconsistency and sky-high contract demands...

Yeah, no thanks to that. Nobody single player is bigger than Red Sox Nation; Jacoby no exception.

[bagwell368]

OMG...

2011 was a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, AL MVP runner-up year for Ellsbury...

An outlier doesn't mean that's who he is. After his exciting debut in 2007, his career before 2011 was pockmarked with his inability to generate a good OBP in the leadoff slot, injury in 2010 - and his overall inability to follow-up on that 2007 sliver of a season.

His 2011 was clearly titanic, a win in the last game of the season led by him would have likely have gotten him the MVP.

2012 was yet another meh season with Ellsbury showing no sign of his power shown in 2011.

So, sorry, but that isn't any perennial All Star, not yet, and better then 50/50 never to be so.

2012 is another collision, misses a lot of time b/c of shoulder injury but still comes back in July & puts up 271 avg with 18 doubles, 4 homers, 26 RBI, 14 SB's in only 74 games.

Batting average is nearly worthless to judge him by, his OBP wasn't special - in fact it was probably below league average at .313, his power was curtailed, RBI's mean little in particular for a leadoff hitter, 14 SB's in 74 games was also well under his career rate, so why should 2012 be seen as year that proves he's an All Star?

This isn't a matter of "IF" it's a fact; Ellsbury is one of the best players in all of MLB when he's on the field. We aren't talking about a guy who has hammy problems or back problems...like I said, it was a pair of nasty on-field collisions, freak accidents, that saw him lose a couple of seasons due to injury.

....and you don't see the All Star in Jacoby...lol

I'm sorry, Ellsbury is far from one of the best players in MLB per his career stats, and don't hand me 2011, he has not followed it up.

You overrate Ellsbury, and have presented little evidence to back up you case.

On top of that he's said to be almost invisible in clubhouse, his agent is the #1 nasty bastard agent in the sport, he's aging, and he is said to hold no affection for Boston - and why should he after his shameful treatment in the press, by fans, and inept BRS medical staffers in 2010. Say goodbye now.

[bagwell368]

Jacoby IS special. He's been nothing short of MVP-caliber on healthy seasons and he's not flipping injury prone! For the love of God...how fast we forget.

And for the record, I'm no Ellsbury homer. I do love watching the guy play but if I have it my way, he's dealt before that contract runs out.

Ellsbury is not special, per year his slash at leadoff with PA's:

2007: 063: .286 .365 .393
2008: 544: .272 .324 .372
2009: 553: .300 .347 .403
2010: 072: .176 .211 .235
2011: 689: .327 .381 .556
2012: 219: .245 .292 .328

So, in his last 5 years, one year with a great slash, and very fine OBP, the other 4 years one awful (injury had a lot to do with it), 1 well below average, 1 average, 1 slightly above average. What All Star?

His fielding is overrated, he can't go straight back on balls, so he plays deep and makes great plays coming in, and to his sides, but a lot of singles drop in front of him.

His base stealing/running has been elite, but since he doesn't get on base from leadoff that well, he can't exploit it that much.

You claim not to be a Ellsbury homer, but so far everything i read indicates the opposite.

[bagwell368]

He's only been in the Bigs for five seasons, two of which he missed most due to injury. Your point?

2008, 09, 11 were great/stellar/phenomenal seasons btw

Nonsense. 2008 and 2009 were not great/stellar or phenomenal seasons, not even close.

2008 - 38th in rWAR among AL players
2009 - 50th in rWAR among AL players

very nice seasons, but stellar is a total delusional statement.

[bagwell368]

You dont see an All-Star in Ellsbury. Cmon. The guys been through hell with us and put up some decent number before getting hurt and returning avg. Give the man a chance. IDC what he demands for money you people have to be kidding me with the contracts. We can sign 4 guys for 20 mill a year and THEN just THEN you can make contracts an issue. Do you people relise how much money we CAN spend? really. Holding back on a player we groomed and has the chance to be good for years just becasue hes only had 1 all star season in his 5 years because of injurys? i read some of these posts dumbfounded. Please read how much the owners make look at our payroll. Look how we could of still signed 20 mill players when we traded contracts out of here it just wasnt Bens team. It wasnt a great team we were an OK team with huge contracts. You dont think Els would be good person to keep because hes going to do good and demand money? ummm ok PAY HIM!! The man was 2nd in position players WAR rating 2 years ago when 100%. So last he got hurt so now get rid of him? if he puts up the numbers in 2011 do you ppl honestly think we should let him go becasue hes going to demand money?

If our ~$13M players are worth around that, Ellsbury isn't worth ~$20M, in particular for over 3 years.

What 4 guys did we sign for $20M?

The man was 100% in 2008 and 2009 and he wasn't near the top of the league, so your point is what? that he's going to have 2011 season repeats like snow falling from the sky?

It's not a matter of getting rid of him, it's a matter of noty signing stupid contracts, and my expectation is that Ellsbury will sign such a contract.

Don't you remember me going ape over how bad the Crawford deal was? Well any sort of good/healthy year by Ellsbury and there is a good chance Ellsbury will get more and frankly he's not worth it, move on.

[Bama Sox]

Ellsbury is not special, per year his slash at leadoff with PA's:

2007: 063: .286 .365 .393
2008: 544: .272 .324 .372
2009: 553: .300 .347 .403
2010: 072: .176 .211 .235
2011: 689: .327 .381 .556
2012: 219: .245 .292 .328

So, in his last 5 years, one year with a great slash, and very fine OBP, the other 4 years one awful (injury had a lot to do with it), 1 well below average, 1 average, 1 slightly above average. What All Star?

His fielding is overrated, he can't go straight back on balls, so he plays deep and makes great plays coming in, and to his sides, but a lot of singles drop in front of him.

His base stealing/running has been elite, but since he doesn't get on base from leadoff that well, he can't exploit it that much.

You claim not to be a Ellsbury homer, but so far everything i read indicates the opposite.

I love it when Numbers Geeks feel the need to step into a debate...

Congrats on finding one statistic of many, where Jacoby can be the least bit criticized. So let me get your arguments straight, Jacboy isn't an All Star, even on his good years, because his lead-off AB's aren't All Star-ish? 27 doubles, 10 triples, 70 swiped bags in 2009 but WAIT..nope..not an All Star because he's in the red for leadoff PA's. GTFO

And how convenient for you call him overrated defensively...just b/c. Do you even watch the Red Sox? Where's you stat-geek argument to back this opinion up? Guy has a boat-load of SB's to his career but, "he doesn't get on base from the lead-off...".

You're clearly a hater...

[Nomar]

I love it when Numbers Geeks feel the need to step into a debate...

Congrats on finding one statistic of many, where Jacoby can be the least bit criticized. So let me get your arguments straight, Jacboy isn't an All Star, even on his good years, because his lead-off AB's aren't All Star-ish? 27 doubles, 10 triples, 70 swiped bags in 2009 but WAIT..nope..not an All Star because he's in the red for leadoff PA's. GTFO

And how convenient for you call him overrated defensively...just b/c. Do you even watch the Red Sox? Where's you stat-geek argument to back this opinion up? Guy has a boat-load of SB's to his career but, "he doesn't get on base from the lead-off...".

You're clearly a hater...

the numbers in red were on base percentages, which is the most important part of being a leadoff hitter... not stolen bases. It's fine to not go just by stats but youre completely wrong here.

[bagwell368]

I love it when Numbers Geeks feel the need to step into a debate...

Yeah, in particular when the geek has 14 years of coaching experience and has been a fan for 46 years.

Congrats on finding one statistic of many, where Jacoby can be the least bit criticized.

I've been writing about Ellsbury and his flaws back into at least 2009 buddy.

So let me get your arguments straight, Jacboy isn't an All Star, even on his good years, because his lead-off AB's aren't All Star-ish? 27 doubles, 10 triples, 70 swiped bags in 2009 but WAIT..nope..not an All Star because he's in the red for leadoff PA's. GTFO

He is supposed to be a lead-off hitter, historically he's not as effective there as he is in the #6-9 slots (last I checked), so that's certainly one point. The other is that he one (1) major outlier season, two other good seasons, and he's getting older and nicked up, so productive time is a wasting.

In 2009 Ellsbury was the 50th most valuable player in the league. He might have been named an All Star, just like Scott Cooper got named to the All Star team for the Sox at 3B in 1993-94. The designation doesn't mean he was, god and Scott Cooper both know he wasn't one.

And how convenient for you call him overrated defensively...just b/c. Do you even watch the Red Sox? Where's you stat-geek argument to back this opinion up? Guy has a boat-load of SB's to his career but, "he doesn't get on base from the lead-off...".

You're clearly a hater...

Again, I was calling him overrated defensively back in '09 or '10 - go look it up if you care that much.

I already gave the core of Ellsbury's defensive issues - although I forgot to mention his arm is weak too.

Yes I mentioned Ellsbury is a great base runner, but base running is generally worth less than most people think, and yes his OBP doesn't allow for him to run as much as he might. Sorry, but the truth is the truth.

A hater? No I'm a critic and a destroyer of myths. BTW I'll save you the trouble: I wanted Matt Holliday signed here in the worst way, didn't want Bay resigned, nor Lowell, wanted Beltre and got shouted down for it, hated Crawford before he even got here, didn't want VMart, predicted Youk would be toast going back to 3B, that Iglesias couldn't hit ML pitching, that Buchholz's 2010 was an outlier and would never be equaled, etc. That's not hate, that's judgement, Jack.

[Bama Sox]

the numbers in red were on base percentages, which is the most important part of being a leadoff hitter... not stolen bases. It's fine to not go just by stats but youre completely wrong here.

Ells having below avg OBP when leading off an inning doesn't erase all the above-average stats he accumulated in the same seasons. People who actually watch the Red Sox always agree Ells' power makes him better suited as the No. 2 hitter but b/c of need, he's leadoff. Can't hold lack of depth against the guy too much.
Now please, back the microscopic lens up by a few hundred and stop over-analyzing.

[MoVaughnsLunch]

Pretty sure it's been noted ellsbury doesn't like Boston as he's a west coast guy

[bagwell368]

Ells having below avg OBP when leading off an inning doesn't erase all the above-average stats he accumulated in the same seasons. People who actually watch the Red Sox always agree Ells' power makes him better suited as the No. 2 hitter but b/c of need, he's leadoff. Can't hold lack of depth against the guy too much.
Now please, back the microscopic lens up by a few hundred and stop over-analyzing.

Sorry, perhaps I wasn't clear, those PA numbers were his hitting for leadoff during entire games, not just when leading off an inning. But now that you bring it up:

leading off inning: PA: 925: .285/.328/.433

Not leading off inning (est): .301/.355/.445

The data is clear, as was the eye test before 2011. Leading off he was always late on fastballs but hit breaking balls pretty well, in the lower batting slots he crushed fastballs (I argued he shouldn't lead off many times back in those years), and generally fouled off breaking balls - like many good hitters. In '11 he seemed to bring that aggression with him into the leadoff slot much better. Last year he seemed to lose it, but, it is quite possible his injury had a lot to do with it.

Still at 29 1/4 years old and with an agent that won't let him play hurt, he seems to a hell of a risk for a big buck contract.

Sorry, I'm retired and baseball can be viewed in a number of ways. Going to a game and talking and drinking and not paying attention is not my way.

[Bama Sox]

Sorry, perhaps I wasn't clear, those PA numbers were his hitting for leadoff during entire games, not just when leading off an inning. But now that you bring it up:

leading off inning: PA: 925: .285/.328/.433

Not leading off inning (est): .301/.355/.445

The data is clear, as was the eye test before 2011. Leading off he was always late on fastballs but hit breaking balls pretty well, in the lower batting slots he crushed fastballs (I argued he shouldn't lead off many times back in those years), and generally fouled off breaking balls - like many good hitters. In '11 he seemed to bring that aggression with him into the leadoff slot much better. Last year he seemed to lose it, but, it is quite possible his injury had a lot to do with it.

Still at 29 1/4 years old and with an agent that won't let him play hurt, he seems to a hell of a risk for a big buck contract.

Sorry, I'm retired and baseball can be viewed in a number of ways. Going to a game and talking and drinking and not paying attention is not my way.

I say again, it's over-analysis and essentially penalizing the guy for batting out of position. He's not best suited to be a leadoff hitter, a lot of guys aren't, and the numbers reflect this. None of this takes away from what he accomplished at the plate in 2008, 09, and 11. He's an All Star caliber player-when-not colliding with much bigger dudes on the diamond.

For what it's worth, I'm not signing him to a contract right now either.

[MoVaughnsLunch]

Food for thought: when we deal him midseason, who hits lead off?

Victorino isn't a less off hitter. Jbj is the ready made lead off guy but who knows if hell be ready at the deadline? If kalish comes on strong, which I think he will, my money would be on him. That said he's only a platoon guy. So, Pedroia might do it.

What do you all think? Who hits lead off next?

[Bama Sox]

Food for thought: when we deal him midseason, who hits lead off?

Victorino isn't a less off hitter. Jbj is the ready made lead off guy but who knows if hell be ready at the deadline? If kalish comes on strong, which I think he will, my money would be on him. That said he's only a platoon guy. So, Pedroia might do it.

What do you all think? Who hits lead off next?

If we deal Ellsbury midseason it almost doesn't matter cause we're looking towards 2014. Ellsbury on the roster beyond deadline means he's either on the DL or we're in prime position to contend for a 'chip. But lets go with what's most likely...Ellsbury trade, I'm guessing **** is the holdover in the leadoff spot; Farrell probably monkeys around the lineup, trying a few guys.

Nava's high OBP makes him a great candidate but he's weak against lefties and likely platooning with Gomes in 2013. I know a few who think Nava is a better leadoff candidate then a healthy Ellsbury.