I don't agree it's over analysis. When I started talking about it back when nobody else noticed it.
If you average '08, '09, '11 he's an all star, but individually the first two are not IMO. The third year is better then Fred Lynn in 1979 - by far his best year, and almost as great as Trout last year. But until I see otherwise it's just a tease of what could have been.
We both agree he's not coming back unless we offer him arb to secure the pick, and he can't snag the right deal and we get him for a Boras "make good" year.