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  1. #346
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    no you said not to count the future so im not. im deliberately discounting any possible future value since those are the parameters YOU set.

    So by your own definition the Blue Jays are trading a triple A catcher and a Single A pitcher. you cant have it both ways

    by your definition Trouts Value at this time last year till now hasnt changed, when clearly it has. last year at this time Trout Value was mostly comprised of unfulfilled potential. now his value is greater because it is made up of demonstrated performance and potential. that is a considerable difference. Nobody in their right mind would argue that Trout's value hasnt increased dynamicallly over the last year.

    you speak of D'arnaud and Syndergaard's value as if that potential that they possess is already demonstrated performance, when clearly it is not. Once again, youve called this a Gross overpay not potentially a Gross overpay or a could be, but already a Gross overpay since when is an unproven Triple A player and single A player the going rate for a Cy Young winner? by your definition the Mets could trade Wilmer Flores and Cory Vaughn for David Price.... when clearly you cant.

    Demonstrated performance is always worth more than potential. always. and while potential does have a value, that value is always only realised in the future and since your statement specifically relates only to the here and now, as. once again I quote you: "at the time of it being finalized" you are specifically not including any future expectations.

    Since most of any prospects value is based on future expected performance, how is D'arnaud and Syndergaard's value minus any future expected performance, so great? you set the parameters, you're the one saying it is a gross overpay not can be where you give them credit for future performance.

    I submit that without that expectation of what could be, no prospect is worth all that much. most of a prospects value is tied into projectability and as such you cant call any prospect a sure thing until, like Trout they turn it into performance.

    therefore you cant call this trade a Gross Overpay. Based on what we know right now it is just as likely to be an utter failure for the Mets as it is to be a rousing success. It is only the passage of time that will determine whether it is a Gross Overpay.

    you may think otherwise but if D'arnaud and Syndergaard never do anything beyond this point, history will not look back upon this as a Gross Overpay will it?
    Last edited by mikepelfrey; 12-26-2012 at 04:13 PM.

  2. #347
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    just because you dont value prospects at all doesnt mean they hold no value. the jays gave up more then the shouldve had too to get dickey is all hes trying to say.
    Sens Raps Jays

  3. #348
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikepelfrey View Post
    no you said not to count the future so im not. im deliberately discounting any possible future value since those are the parameters YOU set.

    So by your own definition the Blue Jays are trading a triple A catcher and a Single A pitcher. you cant have it both ways

    by your definition Trouts Value at this time last year till now hasnt changed, when clearly it has. last year at this time Trout Value was mostly comprised of unfulfilled potential. now his value is greater because it is made up of demonstrated performance and potential. that is a considerable difference. Nobody in their right mind would argue that Trout's value hasnt increased dynamicallly over the last year.

    you speak of D'arnaud and Syndergaard's value as if that potential that they possess is already demonstrated performance, when clearly it is not. Once again, youve called this a Gross overpay not potentially a Gross overpay or a could be, but already a Gross overpay since when is an unproven Triple A player and single A player the going rate for a Cy Young winner? by your definition the Mets could trade Wilmer Flores and Cory Vaughn for David Price.... when clearly you cant.

    Demonstrated performance is always worth more than potential. always. and while potential does have a value, that value is always only realised in the future and since your statement specifically relates only to the here and now, as. once again I quote you: "at the time of it being finalized" you are specifically not including any future expectations.

    Since most of any prospects value is based on future expected performance, how is D'arnaud and Syndergaard's value minus any future expected performance, so great? you set the parameters, you're the one saying it is a gross overpay not can be where you give them credit for future performance.

    I submit that without that expectation of what could be, no prospect is worth all that much. most of a prospects value is tied into projectability and as such you cant call any prospect a sure thing until, like Trout they turn it into performance.

    therefore you cant call this trade a Gross Overpay. Based on what we know right now it is just as likely to be an utter failure for the Mets as it is to be a rousing success. It is only the passage of time that will determine whether it is a Gross Overpay.

    you may think otherwise but if D'arnaud and Syndergaard never do anything beyond this point, history will not look back upon this as a Gross Overpay will it?
    You just aren't going to get it. You said stupid stuff like "Demonstrated performance is always worth more than potential. always." when that's so clearly ridiculous. Jurickson Profar, right now, would command more on the open market than probably 80-90% of players with major league experience. That's what I'm talking about, value on the trade market. You also make other stupid statements like "By your own definition, ...." and follow it with some absurdly misinterpreted version of an earlier comment I made and then go off to cry about it.

    What exactly were you even trying to say with this paragraph:
    "So by your own definition the Blue Jays are trading a triple A catcher and a Single A pitcher. you cant have it both ways". When did I define them as merely some triple A catcher or single A pitcher, and what significance is that supposed to have. And what exactly are you saying I can't have both ways? Given the option of having those prospects or R.A. Dickey, I'd rather the Blue Jays had the prospects still because it was a gross overpay (I threw in another reference since you love that phrase so much).

    I think you're having a really hard time wrapping your head around the very basic argument I made, which is simply that if the Blue Jays were going to trade Travis D'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard, they should have got more than R.A. Dickey in return. You may disagree with that, and I honestly have no problem with you expressing that opinion if that's all you were doing. I simply don't understand why you keep trying to make convoluted arguments about "future value" or "potential value" or one of your other ridiculous terms meant to dismiss their value on the current market.

  4. #349
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    I recently had a closer look at both Darnaud and Skaarsgard's stats and I really have to change my assessment of these two players. I still think that Toronto should have sought a longer team deal though.
    Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect.

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  5. #350
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    Lets look at this way.

    The Jays brought in a ton of Talent this year and topped it off with a Cy Young Winner.

    The Jays won this trade for now. Four years from now if D'arnaud and Syndergaard become all star caliber players, the question of who won the trade can be reassessed.

    For now let just say the Jays won short term. The Mets can possibly win longterm.


    Presenting the 2013 New York Mets Outfield.

  6. #351
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rio40 View Post
    Lets look at this way.

    The Jays brought in a ton of Talent this year and topped it off with a Cy Young Winner.

    The Jays won this trade for now. Four years from now if D'arnaud and Syndergaard become all star caliber players, the question of who won the trade can be reassessed.

    For now let just say the Jays won short term. The Mets can possibly win longterm.
    I don't really agree. By that logic, if the Blue Jays had given up Aaron Sanchez and Anthony Gose in addition to Travis D'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard, would you be saying the same thing? R.A. Dickey will be great addition to the Blue Jays (well, hopefully) but that doesn't mean that any price is worth it.

  7. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtf View Post
    I don't really agree. By that logic, if the Blue Jays had given up Aaron Sanchez and Anthony Gose in addition to Travis D'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard, would you be saying the same thing? R.A. Dickey will be great addition to the Blue Jays (well, hopefully) but that doesn't mean that any price is worth it.
    D'Arnaud and Sydergaard could both potentially be really good. They also could potentially not amount to anything. I can't even count how many "can't miss" prospects the Mets have had that never amounted to anything.

    Just BC a player should be good doesn't mean he will be. TDA already has had a major knee injury. He also played in a hitter friendly league. JPA who played in the same league had nearly the same numbers all while being just as hyped as TDA.

    And no...thats completely different logic. Giving up Gose and Sanchez as well the Mets would clearly win that trade on the probability alone. Theres little risk that atleast 1 of those 4 wouldn't pan out.
    The deal made sense for both teams and is worth the risk from the Mets perspective.
    Last edited by Rio40; 12-27-2012 at 03:34 PM.


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  8. #353
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    Giving up 2 highly touted prospects is fair value for a Cy Young winner when in win now mode.

    4 highly touted prospects is overpaying.


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  9. #354
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    I'm pretty sure it was a good deal for both sides the Jays didn't just get the reining Cy winner they got him at 3 years for 29 million which is damn near unimaginable these days. Lots of Jays fans like myself though we could get him for less but that was before taking the contract into account. Win win for both sides I just can't see any legitimate argument for anyone who thinks either side lost big.

  10. #355
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by LanceUpperCut View Post
    I'm pretty sure it was a good deal for both sides the Jays didn't just get the reining Cy winner they got him at 3 years for 29 million which is damn near unimaginable these days. Lots of Jays fans like myself though we could get him for less but that was before taking the contract into account. Win win for both sides I just can't see any legitimate argument for anyone who thinks either side lost big.
    Exactly


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  11. #356
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rio40 View Post
    D'Arnaud and Sydergaard could both potentially be really good. They also could potentially not amount to anything. I can't even count how many "can't miss" prospects the Mets have had that never amounted to anything.

    Just BC a player should be good doesn't mean he will be. TDA already has had a major knee injury. He also played in a hitter friendly league. JPA who played in the same league had nearly the same numbers all while being just as hyped as TDA.

    And no...thats completely different logic. Giving up Gose and Sanchez as well the Mets would clearly win that trade on the probability alone. Theres little risk that atleast 1 of those 4 wouldn't pan out.
    The deal made sense for both teams and is worth the risk from the Mets perspective.
    I think you're using really twisted logic to justify to justify your opinion but you are entitled to that opinion nonetheless.

    As I've said, I think the value of the individual assets being transferred in this trade didn't equal out for both teams. I've heard some people agree with that but come to the conclusion that the trade is still feasible based on the opportunity to acquire a pitcher of R.A. Dickey's caliber at the right time for the Blue Jays (like this article on fangraphs). That's an opinion I can understand, despite disagreeing with, because it's actually logical.

  12. #357
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtf View Post
    I think you're using really twisted logic to justify to justify your opinion but you are entitled to that opinion nonetheless.

    As I've said, I think the value of the individual assets being transferred in this trade didn't equal out for both teams. I've heard some people agree with that but come to the conclusion that the trade is still feasible based on the opportunity to acquire a pitcher of R.A. Dickey's caliber at the right time for the Blue Jays (like this article on fangraphs). That's an opinion I can understand, despite disagreeing with, because it's actually logical.
    Give example of a player in the league right now that you think would be equal value for these 2 guys, if you have already, my bad, haven't read all the posts.

    Just wondering if Dickey isn't enough, who is.

  13. #358
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldmantrash View Post
    Give example of a player in the league right now that you think would be equal value for these 2 guys, if you have already, my bad, haven't read all the posts.

    Just wondering if Dickey isn't enough, who is.
    What exactly would be the point of that exercise? Just wondering. All I'm saying is this trade was an overpay. I understand the rationale behind overpaying for R.A. Dickey at this specific point in Anthopoulos' timeline for the Blue Jays, I just disagree with it. Trading Travis D'Arnaud alone for R.A. Dickey would and should have been enough, and I think that would have been still a win for the Mets but it would have been much closer to fair than the trade that actually happened.

    Similarly, I would say the prospects the Rays received for James Shields was a ridiculous ransom and the Royals got ripped off there, and it didn't even make sense for them since they are not in a position to win the division right now.

  14. #359
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    the biggest problem with trading dickey is the fact that they didnt trade him for baseball reasons they traded him because wilpon refused to commit a .01 more once they locked up wright

    i love david wright but his contract means the mets wont sign anyone for another 10 years

  15. #360
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    I swear I still look at this and feel bad...The Jays are stupid.

    What was meant for me will be Mine once again... THE CHAMP OF CHAMPS IS BACK

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