no you said not to count the future so im not. im deliberately discounting any possible future value since those are the parameters YOU set.
So by your own definition the Blue Jays are trading a triple A catcher and a Single A pitcher. you cant have it both ways
by your definition Trouts Value at this time last year till now hasnt changed, when clearly it has. last year at this time Trout Value was mostly comprised of unfulfilled potential. now his value is greater because it is made up of demonstrated performance and potential. that is a considerable difference. Nobody in their right mind would argue that Trout's value hasnt increased dynamicallly over the last year.
you speak of D'arnaud and Syndergaard's value as if that potential that they possess is already demonstrated performance, when clearly it is not. Once again, youve called this a Gross overpay not potentially a Gross overpay or a could be, but already a Gross overpay since when is an unproven Triple A player and single A player the going rate for a Cy Young winner? by your definition the Mets could trade Wilmer Flores and Cory Vaughn for David Price.... when clearly you cant.
Demonstrated performance is always worth more than potential. always. and while potential does have a value, that value is always only realised in the future and since your statement specifically relates only to the here and now, as. once again I quote you: "at the time of it being finalized" you are specifically not including any future expectations.
Since most of any prospects value is based on future expected performance, how is D'arnaud and Syndergaard's value minus any future expected performance, so great? you set the parameters, you're the one saying it is a gross overpay not can be where you give them credit for future performance.
I submit that without that expectation of what could be, no prospect is worth all that much. most of a prospects value is tied into projectability and as such you cant call any prospect a sure thing until, like Trout they turn it into performance.
therefore you cant call this trade a Gross Overpay. Based on what we know right now it is just as likely to be an utter failure for the Mets as it is to be a rousing success. It is only the passage of time that will determine whether it is a Gross Overpay.
you may think otherwise but if D'arnaud and Syndergaard never do anything beyond this point, history will not look back upon this as a Gross Overpay will it?