What Year are we realistically going to compete?

[Dugmet]

I've been saying 2015-2016 for a while.

The Wilpons are opening a whole street of shopping and million square foot mall next door in 2016. They'll need good attendance to make as much money as possible.

The only thing that could throw this off schedule is if the business owners in Willets Point get the courts to delay their eviction. If this happens the Wilpons will be much less likely to supplement whatever they have through free agency. Building a contender would then rely on how many of their magic beans (prospects) sprout.

This trade just confirms they're going to go cheap and don't plan on winning before the date I'd predicted.

Do you really think there will be a all in place by 2016? Have the "squatters" or businesses all been relocated? How long will the environmental cleanup take? 2015 is wildly optimistic. 2016 is still unlikely for a mall to be built with tennants, etc.

Regardless, mall or no mall, if the team isn't winning attendence will not improve measurably. Historically, the Mets have drawn very well when they were competitive. Winning is the most cost effective way to put fans in the seats. Your premise isn't logical.

[Coupon]

Do you really think there will be a all in place by 2016? Have the "squatters" or businesses all been relocated? How long will the environmental cleanup take? 2015 is wildly optimistic. 2016 is still unlikely for a mall to be built with tennants, etc.

Regardless, mall or no mall, if the team isn't winning attendence will not improve measurably. Historically, the Mets have drawn very well when they were competitive. Winning is the most cost effective way to put fans in the seats. Your premise isn't logical.

2016 is the projected date for Phase 1, which includes the giant mall:

http://metsblog.com/metsblog/sterlin...-redevlopment/

So that's the schedule for "rebuilding" the Coupons seem to be sticking to.

By that time expect a quick turnaround. Maybe the current prospects will be enough. If not expect the Wilpons to supplement them with free agents, but they'll be set up for "meaningful baseball in September" by then - enough to lure fans back to the stadium so they'll wander around the neighborhood and spend money.

Remember, when they got the go-ahead for Citi Field and got serious about stoking demand so they could charge scalper's prices moving into the new undersized facility, they turned things around from 71-91 to 97-65 with only one transition season in-between. It's easy to build a winner with New York revenue if you want. Problem is the Coupons usually prefer to put that money in their pockets.

The Coupons will spend money, but only to make even more money. Don't expect a winner too far ahead of the scheduled opening of the giant mall. It'll be interesting to see if legal challenges push back the scheduled opening of the construction and if this has any effect on the "rebuild", but my hunch is they'll be linked.

[Dugmet]

I just want to know so I can start to give a crap again. Alot of people are big on this deal. More kiddies!!! YAY!!!! But again just means were are going to suck that much harder next year. More time waiting for them develop!!! Dont want to rush em!! I'll be doing alot of rooting for the Jays in the mean while.

2016 is the projected date for Phase 1, which includes the giant mall:

http://metsblog.com/metsblog/sterlin...-redevlopment/

So that's the schedule for "rebuilding" the Coupons seem to be sticking to.

By that time expect a quick turnaround. Maybe the current prospects will be enough. If not expect the Wilpons to supplement them with free agents, but they'll be set up for "meaningful baseball in September" by then - enough to lure fans back to the stadium so they'll wander around the neighborhood and spend money.

Remember, when they got the go-ahead for Citi Field and got serious about stoking demand so they could charge scalper's prices moving into the new undersized facility, they turned things around from 71-91 to 97-65 with only one transition season in-between. It's easy to build a winner with New York revenue if you want. Problem is the Coupons usually prefer to put that money in their pockets.

The Coupons will spend money, but only to make even more money. Don't expect a winner too far ahead of the scheduled opening of the giant mall. It'll be interesting to see if legal challenges push back the scheduled opening of the construction and if this has any effect on the "rebuild", but my hunch is they'll be linked.

My understanding is that the project will be developed in stages. First parking and a hotel, some retail, more parking and retail, and then the 400-unit apartment complex and a 680,000 sq ft mall. Indications are the mall is many many years away.

Construction schedules of this scale rarely hit their mark, but that is irrelevant because mall or no mall, fans will not attend Mets games in significant numbers unless the team is winning. The Wilpons may indeed profit enough to be able to spend prolifically on the Mets, but 2015 is too early for the profits to be rolling in as you seem to claim.

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2012/0..._in_stages.php

[Coupon]

My understanding is that the project will be developed in stages. First parking and a hotel, some retail, more parking and retail, and then the 400-unit apartment complex and a 680,000 sq ft mall. Indications are the mall is many many years away.

Construction schedules of this scale rarely hit their mark, but that is irrelevant because mall or no mall, fans will not attend Mets games in significant numbers unless the team is winning. The Wilpons may indeed profit enough to be able to spend prolifically on the Mets, but 2015 is too early for the profits to be rolling in as you seem to claim.

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2012/0..._in_stages.php

The Wilpons have the cash in hand to spend prolifically on the Mets right now. As soon as they settled with Picard and apparently felt safe enough and/or willing to commingle SNY money and Mets money, they bought (IIRC) $120 million worth of shares in the team from themselves.

SNY is worth $2.5 billion, the Mets are worth $1.5 billion.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozan...s-fans-suffer/

If they can borrow 9 figure sums against that equity every couple of years to pay themselves 9 figure dividends, they can certainly use some of that money to sign players.

You seem to be buying into their nonsense low attendance is keeping them from spending on the team and fans will have to spend money before the Wilpons spend money. How pathetic.

A lot can happen or not happen in three years, but from all appearances your friends the Wilpons have decided to tank the next two years or so and seem to aiming to be competitive again just in time for the opening of the shopping strip surrounding the stadium. What a coincidence!

You can bet if they need free agents to provide "meaningful baseball in September" at that time they'll find the money, even if it contradicts the lies they're telling everyone now.

[paletsgomets]

I mean, the Giants have won two World Series basically without an offense. Their postseason heroes were Cody Ross the first time around, and Marco Scutaro this year. They made the playoffs almost entirely on the strength of their rotation and pen. We are building similar way, just with a much better offense, potentially.

the difference is, the Giants brought them pitchers up at a young age, they werent cheap like the Mets brass, or they didnt lie to their fans, saying they werent ready, first it was Harvey who wasnt reay, he looked damm good to me, now it will be Wheeler, thats the difference. if Wheeler was still a Giant he be in their rotation this year, not wait so we might lose a year

[DisgruntledGoat]

This year will be another "punt from the 50yd line" I think we see the pieces begin to take shape mid-2014(trade deadline-ish) and if things all go as planned(Remember this is the METS so don't count on it) 2015 we make a SERIOUS bid for contender-ship and if by 2016 we haven't brought back a pennant, well then something has indeed gone horribly wrong, so I'll predict right now for the ages

2013- 68-73wins
2014- 79-85wins we miss the WC by 3-5games
2015- 88-93wins we make the WC and are eliminated in the Division Series
2016- 95+ wins We own the Pennant and go to the WS.

This thread/prediction will be coming back to haunt me for years to come...yet it's how I see things at 804AM Eastern Time on 12/17/12

[Claymation]

2013 will be fun to watch, but we will suck.
2014 will be fun to watch, and we should be better.

[metsgiants510]

i think 2014 could be 2005 2.0 where we show signs of being good but still a year away.

2015-2016 I am expecting to be competing again. I am sick of rebuilding. We are a team with wealthy owners in the biggest media market in the world. There is no excuse for what we have seen with this team the last couple of years and next year. After next year Coupon needs to start adding pieces to make this team a contender or sell the team to someone who will.

[The-rock-man]

What year will we compete.. 2015, but and thats a big but (two ax handles worth). Baseball is about everything going right or everything falling apart. I still can't believe the Giants won it a couple of years back. They had little or next to nothing on offense. Yet they prevailed! Yankees, Marlins, Boston, Dodgers all were loaded for bear and did nothing. Its about chemistry and potential. So after saying all that, we might hang around long enough to make a WC run next two years. It could happen.

Add two right handed outfield bats and a reliever or two and wtf! It could happen!

[Metsin08]

I think many are confusing spending with competing. Money helps but at the end of the day it's about players staying healthy and performing. Ask the Marlins, Red Sox, and A's how their payroll made them competitive.

That being said I think 2013 is going to be a rough year but it'll be fun seeing guys get pulled up. IMO 2014 will be the season that we figure out if we're going to compete based on the how close guys like Wheeler, Mejia, Familia, Syndergaard, Flores, and D'Arnaud come to reaching our expectations.

[Sick Of It All]

I am always been one to say that if the team sucks at least I want to see the kids play and well 2013 will have a lot of that, so to me it will be fun to watch period.

Realistically though I think 2015 is the year where the Mets may become true contenders. I always expect the kids to go through some rough couple of years before establishing themselves.

In the end though the Mets will still need to get some other players likely Vets via FA or through trade to try and build a contender by then.

[Cosmic_Canon]

Where are people getting 2015-16 from? If Wheelz and Harvz are who we think they are, you're looking at them plus Niese as the 1-2-3 of our rotation in 2014. Add Gee to the mix, and I'm having a hard time imagining them losing too many series, even if the offense remains power-drained. Assume they add an OF between now and then, perhaps an upgrade at 2B, and I can't see how the team isn't at least in the WC picture in 2014.

Unless 2 of the following in Harvey; Wheeler, and Mejia pan out by 2014, along w/ Gee bouncing back to a 4.20 ERA pitcher, we're 2 maybe 3 years away(assuming we don't get two outfielders in 2014). Unless Duda and Kirk become 3 WAR players or we get two outfielders next year, we're a few years away.

[Rio40]

All I know is this year... If we don't sign or trade for an outfielder I wanna see Duda, den decker and Kirk play everyday to see what we have in them.

I also wanna see Flores move to second or the outfield full time.

After a year of this it will be easier to discuss just when exactly they will become competitive.

[JohnNY62]

2014/2015/2016?? You guys must be smoking some great weed.

Wish I had some ... it could ease the pain of watching another 5 or 6 years of crummy baseball. That's what I see.

[WoodyHoopz]

the difference is, the Giants brought them pitchers up at a young age, they werent cheap like the Mets brass, or they didnt lie to their fans, saying they werent ready, first it was Harvey who wasnt reay, he looked damm good to me, now it will be Wheeler, thats the difference. if Wheeler was still a Giant he be in their rotation this year, not wait so we might lose a year

I don't understand what point you're trying to make here. The Giants have never spent as much as the Mets have. What good does holding players back so that we lose? How does that help the Wilpons? You only need to hold a player back until June 1 to gain that extra year of control.