Why get Alex Smith when they can have JaMarcus Russell?
Why get Alex Smith when they can have JaMarcus Russell?
http://www.rotoworld.com/playernews/...l-player-news/NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports the 49ers will first try to trade Alex Smith before releasing him.
This coincides with what the Santa Rosa Press Democrat reported on Monday. Rapoport adds that the Niners will act fast, though, as they want to work with Smith and get him in the best possible situation. Rapoport reports the Bills, Cardinals, and "maybe" Eagles have shown interest. He also believes the Chiefs "figure to be in mix." CBS Cleveland reports Smith is expected to have interest in the Browns. Smith could probably net San Francisco a mid-round pick, but he won't be anything more than a stop-gap wherever he goes.
http://www.rotoworld.com/playernews/...l-player-news/New Browns DC Ray Horton hasn't decided how he'll use DE Jabaal Sheard in his 3-4 system.
It's been assumed Sheard will make the transition to outside linebacker. "Jabaal is a guy that I have seen on film that can rush the quarterback and is athletic," Horton said. "What we are going to do as a coaching staff is put each one of our guys in the best position. … He can be a linebacker, he can be (an end). I want him to tell me what he can do best and not put a label on what he is." Horton has said he isn't married to a 3-4 front, but Sheard is still likely to see the majority of his snaps at linebacker. Coming off a promising rookie campaign, Sheard took a step back in 2012, so a position switch might not be the worst thing.
Browns SS T.J. Ward's 2013 salary jumped from $575,000 to $630,000 based on rookie-deal incentives.
Ward was a monster in his 2010 rookie season, tallying a whopping 123 tackles and ten passes defensed. In 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus' No. 6 overall safety after recording 68 tackles. Ward isn't scared to get his nose dirty as a run defender, and he enjoys laying the wood on opposing receivers. Ward is a candidate for a contract extension this offseason, and he should excel in new DC Ray Horton's aggressive defense.http://www.rotoworld.com/playernews/...l-player-news/Colt McCoy's base salary will be up from $575,000 to $2.325 million in 2013 after he hit escalators in his rookie contract.
McCoy started 21 games over the first two seasons of his career but was relegated to backup duties in 2012 behind Brandon Weeden. His future in Cleveland remains up in the air with the new coaching staff, but McCoy certainly doesn't fit Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner's desires for a strong-armed quarterback. McCoy, entering the final year of his contract, could be dangled on the trade market this offseason.
Trade McCoy and a 5th Rd draft pick for Alex Smith. Niners get an experienced backup for Keap and a late pick while Cleveland gets a QB that has experience not only in NFL but a Norv Turner ran offense that would actually compete and hopefully push Weeden to winning the starting job. If Smith ends up winning then you at least know that Smith is the stopgap till you can find something in the upcoming draft and don't continue to try developing a 30 year old QB at that time.
www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/?p=262Please Don’t Try to Argue that Passing Yards (and 300 yard games) are Important
Posted on May 31, 2012
I was surprised when I read the NFL’s Around the League entry quoting information from ESPN’s Mike Sando related to Alex Smith and 300 yard passing games. Specifically, the articles pondered passing yardage being overrated, but quickly concluded they were not:
“Are passing yards overrated? Not according to some recent numbers:
Teams with a 300-yard passer went 180-141 over the past three seasons.
In games featuring a lone 300-yard passer, quarterbacks crossing that mark are 132-93 since 2009.”
The article went on to insinuate that in order for Alex Smith to be viewed favorably as a QB he needs to throw for more passing yards and more 300 yard passing games (he had zero 300 yd games last year).
Many of you may already know where I’m going with this, but the NFL is not strictly a “volume” league. Winning 56% of the time (180 of 321 games) is NOT what I would consider a true key to winning, or a stat which is strongly correlated to winning.
The NFL is all about efficiency. It’s not about total volume, but how well you do on every single throw. Passing yards per attempt (ypa) is a far, far superior stat to total passing yards. And it always has been. For instance:
Teams whose QB throws for over 9 yards per attempt are 180-30 the last 3 seasons.
That’s the same number of wins (180) but only 30 losses vs. the 140 losses shown above (for 300 yds total passing). Therefore producing 86% winners vs. 56%.
And when you factor in defense (like Mike did above), and look for games featuring lone 9 ypa passers, these teams went 170-20 (89%) the last 3 seasons.
In fact, the NFL has ALWAYS been about passing efficiency, not passing volume:
Since 1995, games featuring a lone 300+ yd passer saw those teams go 482-389 (55%).
Since 1995, games featuring a lone 9+ ypa passer saw those teams go 738-94 (89%).
The interesting point is that while the NFL has seen 871 games featuring a lone 300 yd passer since 1995, it has also seen 832 games featuring a lone 9 ypa passer. There have been a total of 4,374 games played since 1995.
Therefore, 20% of all games played have featured lone 300 yd passers and 19% have featured lone 9 ypa passers. Meaning both of these feats are similarly difficult to attain. However, one results in 55% wins and the other results in 89% wins. Night and day in terms of correlation to victory.
How does this factor into the Alex Smith debate?
The 49ers went 2-0 last year and 3-0 in 2010 when throwing for over 9 ypa. 5 total games in 2 yrs is actually tied for 11th most in the league. Meaning there are 19 teams who threw fewer than 5 games of 9+ ypa the last two years.
And many of these teams likely wish they could improve in this category as well, including multiple playoff teams from 2011 such as the Lions, the Falcons and the Ravens.
That said, it is no surprise that many of the best teams in the NFL also have had the most games of 9+ ypa the last 3 seasons: GB, NE, Pit and SD, and not far behind are Oak, Hou, NO, Dal, NYG and Phi.
Does Alex Smith and the 49ers offense need to improve in ypa? Of course they do. The next stat makes that painfully obvious:
In 2011, when SF averaged 7+ ypa, they went 7-0 SU and ATS, winning games by 16 ppg.
When they averaged fewer than 7 ypa, they went 7-4 SU and 5-4-2 ATS, winning games by less than 4 ppg.
They were the only team to be undefeated both SU and ATS when throwing for 7+ ypa in 2011. They simply have a good enough defense to consistently see success, so long as their QB delivers an efficient enough performance through the air.
So while many of the NFL’s most traditional media outlets still rely on “300 passing yards” as a yardstick to measure success, remember that it’s far less important to have a “300 yard game” than to have a strong yds/attempt outing from your quarterback. The former has produced winners to the tune of 55-56% whereas the latter has produced winners 86-89% of the time.
And for the final nail in the coffin to the debate as to which holds more value?
Teams who threw for over 9 ypa and UNDER 300 total yards went 36-2 (95%).
Teams who threw for over 9 ypa and OVER 300 total yards went 30-10 (75%).
Expanding back to 2009:
Teams who threw for over 9 ypa and UNDER 300 total yds went 102-4 (96%)
Teams who threw for over 9 ypa and OVER 300 total yds went 78-26 (75%).
Efficient passing teams (9 ypa) who passed for more yards (300 yds) actually did much worse than teams who efficiently passed for a lower quantity of yardage.
Passing for a large volume of yardage is NOT a trait a team should emulate in an attempt to achieve success. Passing for a high efficiency (yards/attempt) IS a trait worth striving to achieve and is far more correlated to victory than total passing yards.
Just another article I found about Smith and the league in a whole.
http://www.buckeyestatesports.com/cl...ts-on-defense/With new Cleveland Browns’ defensive coordinator Ray Horton revealing the team will transition to a 3-4 defense similar to “that team in Pennsylvania” run by Dick LeBeau. There was much speculation the Browns would run a hybrid style, but that was immediately shut down by Horton stating “it won’t be a hybrid, not unless we’re playing golf. It’ll be a 3-4. It’ll be the same defense we ran here [in Arizona],” on a radio show based out of Arizona last week.
The problem that lies here, is last season under Dick Jauron, the Browns ran a 4-3 scheme. Over the past few seasons, general manager Tom Heckert has assembled and drafted a roster that is built to play the 4-3 defense. That leaves the team short in many areas, so where do the Cleveland Browns go during free agency to fill the gaps?
Greg Toler, ARZ, 28, Cornerback
At 28-years old, Toler is set to enter his fouth season in the NFL. Going No. 131 overall in the 2009 draft, the former Saint Paul’s College standout has good size at 6’0″ and 192 pounds. After a breakout season in 2010 where he racked up 90 tackles, a sack, two interceptions and nine passes defensed, he suffered a season ending ACL injury and missed the entire 2011 season. He was projected to start in Arizona last season, but was beaten out by the combination of first-round pick Patrick Peterson and veteran William Gay. Toler has the potential to be a starting cornerback opposite of Joe Haden in Cleveland covering No. 2 receivers. With his experience in Horton’s system, he is a logical fit.
Keenan Lewis, PIT, 26, Cornerback
The 26-year old former Oregon State Beaver had a breakout season starting for the Pittsburgh Steelers. In his fourth season in the league, Lewis led league in passes defensed with a staggering 23, while he also racked up 71 tackles and forced a fumble. The Browns need an answer across from Haden, and Lewis could come at a cheaper price than many of the veterans on the market. He won’t be easy to sign away from the Steelers, but if new owner Jimmy Haslam wants to make it known that Cleveland is a hot free agent destination, persuading players from division rivals is a pretty solid route to take.
Rashad Johnson, ARZ, 27, Safety
Many Cardinals fans think the fifth-year Crimson Tide veteran could be their starter of the future. A ballhawk while at Alabama, Johnson just has not gotten the snaps to fully prove himself in Arizona yet behind Adrian Wilson, despite playing 57 games in his career. An established contributor, being paired with T.J. Ward could allow Johnson to drop into coverage while Ward plays up in run defense, much like the Pittsburgh pairing of Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark.
Ryan Mundy, PIT, 27, Safety
A fifth-year defensive player versed in the LeBeau defense, Mundy saw a career high amount of starts last season, and also had a career tackle high to coincide with it. Over his four year career, the Pittsburgh native out of West Virginia has compiled 130 tackles, eight passes defensed and an interception. With Mundy entering his prime at the age of 27-years old, he could be on the verge of being a quality starter in the NFL and could certainly warrant a look for Horton’s 3-4 scheme.
Dannell Ellerbe, BAL, 27, ILB
Browns fans should remember Ellerbe, Trent Richardson certainly does. On Nov. 9, 2012, Ellerbe was fined $10,000 for his hit on the Browns’ star running back in Week 9 in a divisional match-up. The fourth year Georgia Bulldog really came into his own last season, racking up 92 tackles, 4.5 sacks, two passes defensed and a forced fumble. At 6’1″ and 240 pounds, Ellerbe would bring some much needed attitude to the middle of the Browns’ defense. With Horton bringing a swagger with him of pure confidence in his defensive unit, it is likely they will bring in some players to personify that notion to round out the roster, and Ellerbe fits the bill.
Good stuff bro!!
props to Bee for the sig!!
Browns C Alex Mack's 2013 salary increased from $1.332 million to $3.732 million after he hit escalators in his rookie deal.
Mack has been the picture of consistency since entering the league as the No. 21 overall pick in 2009. He's never missed a start in 64 games. Mack graded out as Pro Football Focus' No. 9 center in 2012, a year after checking in at the No. 10 spot. He's a candidate for a contract extension this offseason as he enters the final year of his deal.Browns RG Shawn Lauvao's 2013 salary jumped from $575,000 to $1.323 million based on rookie-deal incentives.
Lauvao has started all 32 games over the last two seasons. He's an athletic lineman with a nasty attitude, which makes him a solid run blocker. Lauvao was a third-round pick out of Arizona State in 2010, and he's entering the final year of his contract. Cleveland has one of the better offensive lines in the league.Browns impending free agent SLB Scott Fujita says he's still dealing with issues in his neck, but he wasn't ready to say he's retiring.
"I'm not rushing into anything, but I think we all know I've had one neck surgery [13 years ago] and I'm potentially facing another one if things don't calm down in the next year or so," Fujita said. "I've been through so much in the last year, year and a half, I think I just need to catch my breath and take some time and figure out the next step." Turning 34 in April, Fujita's career is in doubt.rotoESPN Cleveland's Tony Grossi says impending free agent CB Sheldon Brown "won't be back" with the Browns.
New defensive coordinator Ray Horton was recently noncommittal on if the team had plans of re-signing Brown. "We're still going through our evaluation process. I don’t know what Sheldon Brown wants. It’s one of those deals where a player’s a free agent, you can’t dictate what’s going to happen in the market. I’d like to have everybody back," said Horton. Brown, 34 in March, performed well in 2012, but he'll likely have to settle for a one- or two-year deal this offseason.
props to Bee for the sig!!
RotoAlex Smith says he "loved" playing for new Browns OC Norval Turner during Turner's one-year stint as the 49ers' offensive overseer in 2006. It's notable since the Browns are one of the teams Smith has been connected to ahead of his expected departure from San Francisco. A league source confirms to the Plain Dealer reuniting with Norv would "pique" Smith's interest. "Loved my time with Norv," Smith said. "He's a great play caller. I just remember he had a great feel for the game on gameday and a great feel for what the defense was doing, (very) QB friendly." At least based on the early hints and rumors, the Browns may top Smith's list of potential suitors.
props to Bee for the sig!!
This offseason has a chance to be very nice if the Browns spend the money they have available and most teams lose out on their potential UFA's especially on the defensive end. I know this wont happen but here are the names I would like to see a run made at:
Veteran WR - Brain Hartline, no I am not an OSU fan. I like his game as a #2 or #3 but not a #1 but he wouldn't need to be that here with Gordon. Hartline and Benjamin could play on the outside allowing the bigger more aggressive Little to roam the underneath routes and in the middle. Probably cost around 5-6 mill a year from what I am hearing.
TE - Delanie Walker San Fran, love his blocking and he can catch the ball too. Very good TE/HB player that if they pair with Cameron and another rookie recieving TE in the draft such as Jordan Reed in the 3rd they will have a very nice TE group. Probably run about 3-4 million a year.
OLB - Paul Kruger, Solid against the run and in coverage and can get after the QB. Everything this new aggressive Defense is looking for and it steals a player from inner-conference team. Probably looking for around 8-9 million a year and I say give it to him as he would shore up the other side of the rush with Sheard.
OLB - Rob Jackson Washington, Solid in coverage and filled in well for Orakpo this year. Not outstanding at rushing the QB but good in run defense too so should be a good 3 OLB rotating with Sheard as he learns the position. Probably would cost around 3-4 million a year.
CB - Sean Smith Miami, like his size and aggressiveness. Not a complete lock down corner but should be on the market and not break the bank for a young 26 year old corner that mans the outside well. Probably cost around 6 million a year.
CB - Greg Toler Arizona, 28 year solid reserve corner that can play nickel as well. Reminds me a lot of Patterson just without the off-field issues and already knows Hortons system. Shouldn't cost more than 3 mill a year.
K - Resign Phil Dawson. I really am scared to see what a new Kicker would look like if he left with the wind off Erie. Phil has mastered that. Get him at 2.5 mill a year but make it a 3 year contract with guaranteed money.
P - Kevin Huber Cincinnati, ranked 4th in Net punting this year. Once again taking away from inner conference team and replacing Hodges who I am done with. Probably cost around 1.5-2 mill a year.
Thats around 35 mill that would be spent on FA's this offseason which the Browns should be able to do. They will probably look at contract extensions for Mack, Ward and possibly Haden this offseason but Ward and Haden could wait till next year. Mack would probably have to be done this offseason. Maivia can walk with the emergence of Fort, Robertson, JMJ, depth of Carder and Acho too and Gocung coming back unless they dump Gocung to shed salary too. Cribbs and MoMass are as good as gone as well as ASmith and Watson IMO. Sheldon Brown is gone too as well as Young as I see him getting let go this offseason or Hagg with the emergence of Gipson. Plus I want the Vaccaro draft pick.
The biggest question though is what to do at QB? I know its still early but if the Browns could come away with a couple of these guys in the FA market before the draft then I would be very happy. More than likely though they get none or they only get Toler.
I think some sort of receiver, kicker, punter, and TE will be brought in like you said. Guard will also be looked at although it is hard to tell not knowing what is going on with Pinkston. I am sure the Browns know what kind of recovery he will have and are not in the dark as we are.
Not that he was mentioned, but Driver is going to retire. He was going to be a FA this year. Jennings has been thrown around as a target of the Browns.
Donald Driver @Donald_Driver80
After 14 years in the NFL, I have decided to retire. It’s been an amazing journey, thank you for all of your love and support! #Packer4Life
Last edited by letsgobrownies7; 01-31-2013 at 10:51 AM. Reason: Wayy off topic