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  1. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by BradHolt4CYoung View Post
    You think James Shields is currently better than Dickey? I find that hard to believe, I get that Shields is younger than Dickey but keep in mind that he is a FA in 2 years. I doubt KC is able to resign him.

    Would you rather have the next 2 years of Dickey or Shields?
    Shields because he's proven to be more dominant in our division. Plus Shields can be locked up to a longer term contract without worrying, but financially probably not the same as Dickey.


    Only reason why Dickey is enticing to us is because, he's an ace caliber pitcher, has been consistent last couple years, won't cost a lot financially and can be a nice temporary stop gap until our younger pitchers in the minors develop and are ready for the majors. He'll be here and if the extension talks are true 2 years, then he'll be expiring same time as MB which means we free up a lot of cash, with 2 spots in the rotation and will have like 4 or 5 young guys possibly ready by then to come in and produce.


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  2. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by BradHolt4CYoung View Post
    You think James Shields is currently better than Dickey? I find that hard to believe, I get that Shields is younger than Dickey but keep in mind that he is a FA in 2 years. I doubt KC is able to resign him.

    Would you rather have the next 2 years of Dickey or Shields?
    Shields for the next 2 years, and the next decade.

    Shields is a horse just like RA is.

    Last 3 YA:

    Dickey:

    3.65 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.8 WAR, 174.1 IP
    3.77 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.5 WAR, 208.2 IP
    3.27 FIP, 3.27 xFIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.6 WAR, 232.2 IP

    Shields:

    4.24 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 8.28 K/9, 2.0 WAR, 203.1 IP
    3.42 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, 8.12 K/9, 4.9 WAR, 249.1 IP
    3.47 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, 8.82 K/9, 4.3 WAR, 227.2 IP

    As you can see, both pitchers have extremely similar #s over their last 3 year average when you total it out.

    Factor in that James Shields is much younger, but MORE IMPORTANTLY, he's pitched in the AL East. He's pitched vs the Yanks, Sox, Jays, and O's 18 times a year, and has put up these #s in the division and done well.

    I would much rather have James Shields over RA Dickey.

  3. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagles4Lyfe View Post
    Shields because he's proven to be more dominant in our division. Plus Shields can be locked up to a longer term contract without worrying, but financially probably not the same as Dickey.


    Only reason why Dickey is enticing to us is because, he's an ace caliber pitcher, has been consistent last couple years, won't cost a lot financially and can be a nice temporary stop gap until our younger pitchers in the minors develop and are ready for the majors. He'll be here and if the extension talks are true 2 years, then he'll be expiring same time as MB which means we free up a lot of cash, with 2 spots in the rotation and will have like 4 or 5 young guys possibly ready by then to come in and produce.
    Agreed with what Eagles said, just wanted to point out the fact that Shields is an ace caliber pitcher also. Just because Price is their #1 and Shields was their #2 doesn't mean Shields isn't an ace. I'm sure you weren't implying that he's not and just stating that RA is an ace, just wanted to point that out.

  4. #199
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    Agree with both of you. You guys just saved me some typing.

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  5. #200
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    If it can be acknowledged that D'Arnaud is a highly ranked prospects within the game then can it also be acknowledged that he's coming off a knee injury that made him miss a large portion of 2012? Or that he also had a thumb surgery in 2011?

    These guys are not the infallible, slam dunk MLB players they get treated as because they are set to be cheap if they make it. There's still that whole "if they make it" part to think about - and by make it I mean even being average, let alone hitting their perceived ceiling.

  6. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by TO Rapz View Post
    Shields for the next 2 years, and the next decade.

    Shields is a horse just like RA is.

    Last 3 YA:

    Dickey:

    3.65 FIP, 3.75 xFIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.8 WAR, 174.1 IP
    3.77 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.5 WAR, 208.2 IP
    3.27 FIP, 3.27 xFIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.6 WAR, 232.2 IP

    Shields:

    4.24 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 8.28 K/9, 2.0 WAR, 203.1 IP
    3.42 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, 8.12 K/9, 4.9 WAR, 249.1 IP
    3.47 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, 8.82 K/9, 4.3 WAR, 227.2 IP

    As you can see, both pitchers have extremely similar #s over their last 3 year average when you total it out.

    Factor in that James Shields is much younger, but MORE IMPORTANTLY, he's pitched in the AL East. He's pitched vs the Yanks, Sox, Jays, and O's 18 times a year, and has put up these #s in the division and done well.

    I would much rather have James Shields over RA Dickey.
    As noted the problem with comparing Dickey/Shields via FIP is that Dickey's FIP and XFIP aren't very representative of his ability. Even if we ignore Shields' crappy 2010 and just focus on 2011-2012:

    Dickey has a 2.99 ERA vs 3.51 FIP/3.59 XFIP.
    Shields has a 3.15 ERA vs 3.44 FIP and 3.25 XFIP

    Notice how with Shields at least the XFIP is close to the results, whereas Dickey is significantly better compared to the FIP/XFIP.

    If you expand it to 2010:

    Dickey: 2.95 ERA/ 3.55 FIP / 3.64 XFIP
    Shields: 3.76 ERA / 3.68 FIP / 3.34 XFIP

    It should be pretty clear now that:

    A) Dickey's results are significantly different than what's expected, and thus should be looked at by ERA and not FIP/XFIP
    B) While Shields has been good, Dickey has been a little better. Shields biggest edge is the amount of innings he's thrown, but on a per inning basis Dickey has been better.
    C) Shields has pitched behind one of the best defences in the league, whereas the Mets have historically ranked in the bottom 5 the past few years. Which makes Dickey's performance that much more impressive, because his numbers can't be looked at from a fielding independent standpoint and are still superior to Shields despite playing in front of a brutal defence. The defence numbers don't make a difference to FIP/XFIP, but since Dickey needs to be evaluated with ERA the lack of defence becomes a critical factor to look at.

    If my choices are Dickey for 3 years vs Shields for 2, I think it's a no brainer for Dickey especially given his performance the past 3 years.
    Last edited by Twitchy; 12-15-2012 at 01:23 PM.


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  7. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    If it can be acknowledged that D'Arnaud is a highly ranked prospects within the game then can it also be acknowledged that he's coming off a knee injury that made him miss a large portion of 2012? Or that he also had a thumb surgery in 2011?

    These guys are not the infallible, slam dunk MLB players they get treated as because they are set to be cheap if they make it. There's still that whole "if they make it" part to think about - and by make it I mean even being average, let alone hitting their perceived ceiling.
    It can probably also be acknowledged that a fringe top 10 prospect (at a premium position) in all of baseball is an extremely valuable asset. Is it unreasonable to want someone in return who's career projects to last more than 3 years? I mean, R.A. Dickey could end up playing 5-7 more years, it is certainly possible, but do you expect it? I certainly don't.

  8. #203
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    There are rumblings that the Mets have been approached by another team. Just unsubstantiated rumblings. Not unsubstantiated rumors. If they become substantiated rumblings, something else might be in the works until it is confirmed by substantiated rumors.

  9. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagles4Lyfe View Post
    Shields because he's proven to be more dominant in our division. Plus Shields can be locked up to a longer term contract without worrying, but financially probably not the same as Dickey.


    Only reason why Dickey is enticing to us is because, he's an ace caliber pitcher, has been consistent last couple years, won't cost a lot financially and can be a nice temporary stop gap until our younger pitchers in the minors develop and are ready for the majors. He'll be here and if the extension talks are true 2 years, then he'll be expiring same time as MB which means we free up a lot of cash, with 2 spots in the rotation and will have like 4 or 5 young guys possibly ready by then to come in and produce.
    Not arguing 1 way or the other , but Dickey did pitch 2 complete game 1 hitters against the mighty AL East last year


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  10. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dugmet View Post
    There are rumblings that the Mets have been approached by another team. Just unsubstantiated rumblings. Not unsubstantiated rumors. If they become substantiated rumblings, something else might be in the works until it is confirmed by substantiated rumors.
    Did you just post so you can say unsubstantiated over and over?

  11. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by BradHolt4CYoung View Post
    You think James Shields is currently better than Dickey? I find that hard to believe, I get that Shields is younger than Dickey but keep in mind that he is a FA in 2 years. I doubt KC is able to resign him.

    Would you rather have the next 2 years of Dickey or Shields?
    Dickey is only signed to 1 year and James Shields has had better consistency than RA Dickey
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  12. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eagles4Lyfe View Post
    Shields because he's proven to be more dominant in our division. Plus Shields can be locked up to a longer term contract without worrying, but financially probably not the same as Dickey.


    Only reason why Dickey is enticing to us is because, he's an ace caliber pitcher, has been consistent last couple years, won't cost a lot financially and can be a nice temporary stop gap until our younger pitchers in the minors develop and are ready for the majors. He'll be here and if the extension talks are true 2 years, then he'll be expiring same time as MB which means we free up a lot of cash, with 2 spots in the rotation and will have like 4 or 5 young guys possibly ready by then to come in and produce.
    Last 3 years of Dickey

    fWAR - 2.8/2.5/4.6
    bWAR -3.4/3.1/5.6

    That's not really consistent
    Save the kittens, ignore sbs' posts
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    It is anyway, not anyways.

  13. #208
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    Carlos Gomez.
    Carlos Santana.
    Matt LaPorta.
    Travis Snider.
    Brendan Wood.
    Matt Wieters (was suppose to be Mauer, man can't even hit for avg)
    Dallas McPherson.
    Justin Smoak.
    Matt Gamel.
    Dominic Brown.
    Fernando Martinez.
    Delmon Young.

    That's just a small list of "top hitting prospects" who were in the next great group who didn't pan out recently.
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  14. #209
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtf View Post
    It can probably also be acknowledged that a fringe top 10 prospect (at a premium position) in all of baseball is an extremely valuable asset. Is it unreasonable to want someone in return who's career projects to last more than 3 years? I mean, R.A. Dickey could end up playing 5-7 more years, it is certainly possible, but do you expect it? I certainly don't.
    It has been acknowledged many times over.

    Who's doing the projecting? Fellow knuckleballer Tim Wakefield was pitching until he was 44 or 45. The Niekro brothers both pitched until they were 43, and Dickey is more of a power pitcher than any of those guys.

    As far as 5 years down the road...D'Arnaud could be back in school for all we know. Being young and loaded with upside/potential doesn't guarantee you anything.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-15-2012 at 01:47 PM.

  15. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Il Mago50 View Post
    Carlos Gomez.
    Carlos Santana.
    Matt LaPorta.
    Travis Snider.
    Brendan Wood.
    Matt Wieters (was suppose to be Mauer, man can't even hit for avg)
    Dallas McPherson.
    Justin Smoak.
    Matt Gamel.
    Dominic Brown.
    Fernando Martinez.
    Delmon Young.

    That's just a small list of "top hitting prospects" who were in the next great group who didn't pan out recently.
    I guess the Jays are lucky to find anyone who would be willing to take D'Arnaud off their hands then. What a burden to have a top hitting prospect.

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