Porcello Trade Thread

[Lionsforlife]

Zumaya wasn't a bust at all. Zumaya failed because of immaturity and an accident. He played too much guitar hero during the playoffs so messed up his wrist/forearm (immature) and separated his shoulder helping his family move when a fire was moving towards their house (accident). You can't blame that on his ability to pitch and close games. If he didn't sustain those injuries we wouldn't even be discussing Rondon as our closer, Zumaya would be.

But that's my point. A lot can go wrong. Zumaya had one great season and he was in the less stressful 7th inning. He had closer of the future all over him, but as you described, a lot went wrong.

My point is, just because Rondon has the right stuff and throws hard, doesn't mean he will succeed. I just have a hard time throwing him into the closer's role as a 22 year old rookie. Have some been successful at that age? Yes, but others have flamed out. I just recall Zumaya and Ryan Perry having that "Closer of the Future" tag. For Zumaya it was immaturity and injuries, for Perry it was control and IMO lack of seasoning (brought up to quickly).

My point is when you go with a rookie closer, a lot can go wrong. I would be much more comfortable with Rondon in the 7th much like Zumaya as a rookie to relieve some pressure. Then go with Dotel/Benoit/Coke in the eighth based off matchups and have your closer (Hanrahan or whoever else they bring in).

That was the point I was making about Zumaya. And again, Hanrahan wouldn't be my choice. I would much rather have Gregerson and maybe their SS prospect Jace Peterson and whatever else we could get.

[kpa9491]

The reason the tigers trade porcello instead of smyly is because the tigers are not built for porcello. Porcello as we all know is a ground ball pitcher. Smyly is expected to be a strikeout pitcher and he showed great signs of that last season. With the defense the tigers have they need a guy that can get the outs themselves without the pitcher always relying on the defense. Porcello is not horrible at all he just not the type of pitcher tigers need to pitch 6 innings. I personally want him in the bullpen. He is perfect relief pitcher to use in double play situation or even to eat up innings, but the tigers will trade him to help another area of concern. The other reason is salary reasons smyly is a few million dollars cheaper than porcello.

[sc8581]

The reason the tigers trade porcello instead of smyly is because the tigers are not built for porcello. Porcello as we all know is a ground ball pitcher. Smyly is expected to be a strikeout pitcher and he showed great signs of that last season. With the defense the tigers have they need a guy that can get the outs themselves without the pitcher always relying on the defense. Porcello is not horrible at all he just not the type of pitcher tigers need to pitch 6 innings. I personally want him in the bullpen. He is perfect relief pitcher to use in double play situation or even to eat up innings, but the tigers will trade him to help another area of concern. The other reason is salary reasons smyly is a few million dollars cheaper than porcello.

Not disagreeing with you at all, but strikeout pitchers that can't go deep in games isn't what we need with our current garbage bullpen either.

[klane079]

The reason the tigers trade porcello instead of smyly is because the tigers are not built for porcello. Porcello as we all know is a ground ball pitcher. Smyly is expected to be a strikeout pitcher and he showed great signs of that last season. With the defense the tigers have they need a guy that can get the outs themselves without the pitcher always relying on the defense. Porcello is not horrible at all he just not the type of pitcher tigers need to pitch 6 innings. I personally want him in the bullpen. He is perfect relief pitcher to use in double play situation or even to eat up innings, but the tigers will trade him to help another area of concern. The other reason is salary reasons smyly is a few million dollars cheaper than porcello.

That is a myth, Porcello allowed a .246 BAA on ground balls in 2012 only 8 points above league average. That wasn't what killed him...Its his inability to get lefties out. He has allowed a .844 OPS against LHH with an OBP of .367% over the last 3 years

Porcello won't be moved to the BP, that would only diminish his value. If he isn't going to be a SP for the Tigers they will trade him.

[kpa9491]

I never said they would move him to the bullpen. But in my personal opinion the bullpen is great for him. The ground balls is not a mythh. Do you follow the tigers? Porcello has only hit 100 strikeouts the past two seasons. He is improving in the category but still not close to what the other starters in rotation are capable of doing. He gets hit and when he gets hit it he gets hit hard. Porcello just needs a team with better defense. He is not a bad pitcher at all. This tigers team is not built for Porcello.

[klane079]

I never said they would move him to the bullpen. But in my personal opinion the bullpen is great for him. The ground balls is not a mythh. Do you follow the tigers? Porcello has only hit 100 strikeouts the past two seasons. He is improving in the category but still not close to what the other starters in rotation are capable of doing. He gets hit and when he gets hit it he gets hit hard. Porcello just needs a team with better defense. He is not a bad pitcher at all. This tigers team is not built for Porcello.

You said that what you would like to happen. I just told you why it won't...nothing more, nothing less.

If the fact that his BAA on ground balls is only 8 points above league average doesn't mean anything to you, I don't know what else to tell ya

[klane079]

Correction...AL average was .238 on ground balls. Porcello was .245 which puts him 7 points above league average. I know it is easy to point to our defense and him being a ground ball pitcher as the issue, but this debunks that. He's just not that good, no defense is going to fix that.

The columns don't match up when I copy and paste, so I've got them in red

Porcello:

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Ground Balls	31	331	331	26	81	6	0	0	0	0	0	0		.245	.245	.263	.508	87	21	0	0	0	0	7	.245	27	104
Fly Balls	31	151	148	43	37	13	2	13	0	0	0	0		.250	.245	.628	.873	93	0	0	0	3	0	1	.174	107	115
Line Drives	31	134	134	29	102	34	0	3	0	0	0	0		.761	.761	1.082	1.843	145	0	0	0	0	0	0	.756	353	118
Bunts	9	10	8	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		.750	.750	.750	1.500	6	0	0	2	0	0	0	.750	277	280

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...t=p#traj::none
AL

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Ground Balls	2268	27326	27326	2099	6506	494	24	0	0	0	0	0		.238	.238	.258	.496	7048	1798	0	0	0	0	671	.238	38	100
Fly Balls	2268	21936	21404	4969	4771	1344	176	2252	0	0	0	0		.223	.217	.618	.835	13223	0	0	0	532	0	58	.128	119	101
Line Drives	2244	11407	11345	2587	8150	2018	164	201	0	0	0	0		.718	.714	.978	1.693	11099	0	0	0	62	0	22	.709	363	100
Bunts	779	1034	605	43	281	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		.464	.464	.466	.931	282	6	0	429	0	0	33	.464	159	136

http://www.baseball-reference.com/le...on_extra::none

[sc8581]

klane079
So i'm assuming you don't think the DIP numbers are reliable? They have Porcello as the 15th best starting pitcher in the AL for 2012.

[klane079]

klane079
So i'm assuming you don't think the DIP numbers are reliable? They have Porcello as the 15th best starting pitcher in the AL for 2012.

Very difficult to quantify....

For example Verlanders DIP% actually increases....For the most part, he has the same defense behind him.

IF Ricks BAA was more than .07 higher than league average...I would buy it, but its not an alarming increase. He gets crushed the further he gets into games. Once he gets to the 6th inning teams averaged OVER a 1.000 OPS, and people wonder why Leyland doesn't leave him out even if his pitch count is low.

Split	G	IP	ER	ERA	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st inning	31	31.0	20	5.81	144	131	22	39	6	1	4	3	1	13	22	1.69	.298	.361	.450	.811	59	2	0	0	0	0	2	.333	101	114
2nd inning	31	30.0	6	1.80	119	116	9	31	7	0	1	0	0	2	15	7.50	.267	.280	.353	.633	41	3	0	1	0	0	1	.300	57	79
3rd inning	30	30.0	14	4.20	133	122	16	33	12	0	2	4	1	8	19	2.38	.270	.331	.418	.749	51	2	3	0	0	1	1	.307	86	108
4th inning	30	29.2	14	4.25	119	115	14	33	6	0	3	5	1	3	22	7.33	.287	.303	.417	.720	48	5	0	0	1	0	1	.330	78	89
5th inning	27	26.2	13	4.39	125	112	15	37	12	0	0	4	0	10	12	1.20	.330	.384	.438	.822	49	3	1	0	2	2	2	.363	105	125
6th inning	23	18.2	14	6.75	94	87	15	36	6	0	4	2	1	5	13	2.60	.414	.452	.621	1.072	54	4	1	1	0	0	1	.457	164	186
7th inning	11	7.2	7	8.22	36	32	6	11	4	0	1	0	1	3	3	1.00	.344	.417	.563	.979	18	1	1	0	0	0	0	.357	142	178
8th inning	3	2.2	2	6.75	11	11	2	4	0	1	1	0	0	0	1		.364	.364	.818	1.182	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	.333	183	231
9th inning	1	0.0	0		2	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	403	505

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...=p#innng::none


Check by plate appearance, once he gets thru the line-up 2 times...he's done:

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
1st PA in G, as SP	31	279	262	24	71	13	0	4	0	0	15	37	2.47	.271	.313	.366	.679	96	6	1	1	0	0	2	.303	69	93
2nd PA in G, as SP	31	276	259	36	78	23	1	6	0	0	13	44	3.38	.301	.341	.467	.808	121	5	3	0	1	1	3	.343	99	116
3rd PA in G, as SP	30	218	197	36	72	16	0	6	0	0	16	26	1.63	.365	.415	.538	.953	106	10	2	1	2	2	3	.395	136	147
4th+ PA in G, as SP	6	10	10	3	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0		.500	.500	.800	1.300	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	217	255

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...=p#times::none

[sc8581]

Verlanders increases with the same defense because the plays get made behind him, dumb luck I guess lol.

[hoog]

I've been hearing Trumbo's name lately with the Porcello rumors. I would love to get that dude. You put Trumbo in left and we're set. He's not the best defensive OF but he's better than the Young/Raburn combo we've used. Then we have Dirks as a LH bat on the bench to PH. I'd give up some top minor league talent with Porcello to get Trumbo and Addison Russell (a SS prospect with the Angels). How about a Porcello, Wilk, McCann, and Fields for Trumbo, Russell, and Michael Clevenger (pitching prospect).

[scottie]

I've been hearing Trumbo's name lately with the Porcello rumors. I would love to get that dude. You put Trumbo in left and we're set. He's not the best defensive OF but he's better than the Young/Raburn combo we've used. Then we have Dirks as a LH bat on the bench to PH. I'd give up some top minor league talent with Porcello to get Trumbo and Addison Russell (a SS prospect with the Angels). How about a Porcello, Wilk, McCann, and Fields for Trumbo, Russell, and Michael Clevenger (pitching prospect).

I wish I don't see that happening, Tigers don't need another OF, who may command a heffty salary. I personally wouldn't mind it, but we have a pretty solid OF bench. Dirks, Bosech, the fast guy....I forgot his name, then the don Kelly type player they are now using. Unless we trade Bosech I don't see another OF player coming over here.

[ahoda]

I'm not a fan of Trumbo. Too much HR or bust for my liking. He's a lesser Adam Dunn.

[ahoda]

I wish I don't see that happening, Tigers don't need another OF, who may command a heffty salary. I personally wouldn't mind it, but we have a pretty solid OF bench. Dirks, Bosech, the fast guy....I forgot his name, then the don Kelly type player they are now using. Unless we trade Bosech I don't see another OF player coming over here.

Tigers have to get another OF because Dirks, Berry, and Boesch are all left handed. We need a righty on the bench.

[Lionsforlife]

I've been hearing Trumbo's name lately with the Porcello rumors. I would love to get that dude. You put Trumbo in left and we're set. He's not the best defensive OF but he's better than the Young/Raburn combo we've used. Then we have Dirks as a LH bat on the bench to PH. I'd give up some top minor league talent with Porcello to get Trumbo and Addison Russell (a SS prospect with the Angels). How about a Porcello, Wilk, McCann, and Fields for Trumbo, Russell, and Michael Clevenger (pitching prospect).

I don't know how I feel about Trumbo. On one hand, I love his power. But he is best suited for 1st base and is not a great left fielder. He also has declined as the year goes on the last two seasons. I would almost rather have Bourjous, who adds speed, has some power, and is a great defender. He should come cheaper as well as he had a down year last year. He hit 12 Hrs and 11 triples in 2011 (22 steals as well).

I just feel that Trumbo would cost more, add to our poor defense and not be as effective as Bourjos. But that's just my preference. Would I be mad if we got Trumbo? Of course not. The guy can mash. But...

I'm not a fan of Trumbo. Too much HR or bust for my liking. He's a lesser Adam Dunn.

Agreed.