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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Yeah. That's basically a Lackey sort of year.

    Somebody said something about Lackey earlier. LAA might actually be interested in him. Ells and Lackey as well. I'd pick clean their farm system for those 3 guys no problem whatever.
    IIRC, the "cost" of dealing for Lackey was Vernon Wells. Lackey's time in BOS has not been all that good... but it hasn't been THAT bad!

    On a serious note I'm actually anticipating Lackey turning in a decent season this year. Not stellar and not worth $16.5M, but around 4.20ERA/190IP.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nomar View Post
    Are you saying Ells to LAA? No way is that realistic. They dont have the money to even attempt to extend him and their system is depleted as is because of Greinke.
    Trumbo? Bourjos? With the addition of Hamilton and Trout clearly justifying playing full time they've got at least one extra OFer capable of starting.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomar View Post
    Sharply in one year, gradually, sure but not that much.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...930&position=P

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...284&position=P

    He's definitely a lot better. Going into 2012 nobody on earth would've said Sanchez is as good. One year makes you say he has been for 3 years? No he has not been, and he isnt. I'm done talking about this because you don't know how next year will play out. If Sanchez is as good as Lester this year then go ahead and bring this up again.
    One year? He has had better years in the past. Look at 2006 (his rookie year), 2010, and 2011. They were all better than his 2012 season. I understand he's not an ace, but you are putting Lester on an absurd pedestal.

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxtober View Post
    On a serious note I'm actually anticipating Lackey turning in a decent season this year. Not stellar and not worth $16.5M, but around 4.20ERA/190IP.
    I'm also on that bandwagon.

    Trumbo? Bourjos? With the addition of Hamilton and Trout clearly justifying playing full time they've got at least one extra OFer capable of starting.
    There's been word that they might prefer to deal Kendrys and shift Trumbo to DH. Makes sense.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by ALMVPDUSTY View Post
    Yes, we have had three different pitching coaches - two of them were fired because they couldn't figure out how to get these guys to pitch well. Is it all on the pitching coaches?? So what makes you so sure Juan Nieves is the answer?
    It's not all coaches, but it's important enough to be brought up. I don't know about Nieves, but hopefully Farrell approves of him.

    People seem to think Farrell has this magic hand that will turn Lester and Buchholz into good pitchers again. Sorry, but I'm really skeptical.
    I'd settle for one.

    You call him "Annibel" but I'm fairly sure he's pitched more innings on average than our friend Clay Buchholz has.... by a fair amount.
    I'm not a fan of Buchholz. I'm also not a fan of Anibal at that sort of price/contract for the Red Sox.

    I am saying he's an improvement over what we have, and there is no possible way to just obtain an ace. So are we trying to stay afloat and contend next year or are we rebuilding?

    If we are rebuilding, then we should trade Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Bailey, and anyone else who might have some prospect-value to someone.
    I think BC is playing both ends. If we are contending at the deadline he'll buy a few pieces, and we are crapping out, he'll sell. Why does BC have to proclaim what he's doing now?
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-19-2012 at 07:33 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by ALMVPDUSTY View Post
    Not sure how you can say "far better." Even if you look at some of Lester's great years, using Bagwell's "3 year window," Lester has been worth less than half of a win more than Sanchez.

    Look at the bigger picture and you see Lester's numbers sharply declining.
    Since they've both come up, Lester has destroyed Sanchez 23.3 rWAR > 14.2

    Included in that was Lester's fight against cancer.

    Best years for each in order

    JL ---- AS

    5.9 -- 3.6
    5.8 -- 3.5
    4.9 -- 2.9
    4.1 -- 2.6
    1.5 -- 1.6
    0.8 -- 0.3
    0.4 - -0.3

    So far Lester has attained 1B sort of status which he has been letting go of. Best case AS is a #2SP, with much of his career as a straight 3. To date Sanchez is trash next to Lester.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-18-2012 at 09:04 PM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  6. #51
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    Going purely by my eye test, it still looks to me like Lester is either in serious decline or hitters are figuring him out.

    But for the sake of moving this along, how about I concede that Lester will be better than Sanchez next year. That still leaves a rotation full of crap.

    Doubront and Buchholz can pitch well, but their innings will undoubtedly be limited. Lackey can pitch a lot of innings, but he does not pitch well, and he's coming off surgery so who knows if his innings will even be there.

    Dempster is a horse who won't hurt.

    Sanchez would have provided some good, solid depth if Lester left via free agency, if/when Doubront and Buchholz miss significant time, or if Lackey shows he is ineffective. Sanchez can pitch.

    Now I don't like this half-rebuild, half-contend thing Ben is doing. Let's either put out a cheap team that will tank get us some more high draft picks, or let's go out and fill the needs we have. The need we have is pitching. Anibal is a good pitcher, Greinke is an ace, Pelfrey and Baker were solid buy-low candidates. Who's left? Liriano?

  7. #52
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    I actually feel better about this signing now.. above avg FIP

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by ALMVPDUSTY View Post
    Going purely by my eye test, it still looks to me like Lester is either in serious decline or hitters are figuring him out.
    I disagree. There is nothing wrong with his arm. He's an emotional guy that's too much of a perfectionist and he gets down on himself. The coaching here the last two years didn't help him with that as much as before.

    He's had great months, even in a down year like 2012. That suggests issues with repeatability of his mechanics or the emotional issue I mentioned, not that he's declined overall, there is no proof of any constant decline.

    But for the sake of moving this along, how about I concede that Lester will be better than Sanchez next year. That still leaves a rotation full of crap.

    Doubront and Buchholz can pitch well, but their innings will undoubtedly be limited. Lackey can pitch a lot of innings, but he does not pitch well, and he's coming off surgery so who knows if his innings will even be there.

    Dempster is a horse who won't hurt.

    Sanchez would have provided some good, solid depth if Lester left via free agency, if/when Doubront and Buchholz miss significant time, or if Lackey shows he is ineffective. Sanchez can pitch.

    Now I don't like this half-rebuild, half-contend thing Ben is doing. Let's either put out a cheap team that will tank get us some more high draft picks, or let's go out and fill the needs we have. The need we have is pitching. Anibal is a good pitcher, Greinke is an ace, Pelfrey and Baker were solid buy-low candidates. Who's left? Liriano?
    Just because we have the money to make a move, it doesn't mean we should. The years are simply too long for Sanchez. If our farm provides a lot of pitching we won't need him in 3-4 years. If he gets hurt or sucks, we won't need him either, but be stuck with the contract.

    The pink hats demand some sort of effort with "names" being brought in be made. OK, BC did it. Tanking is a tough sell. You might have some guys leave that you don't want to leave because of it for one thing.

    The only guys left at this point are #5-6 type pitchers, no better than what we have IMO. I think we have to wait to see if we are buyers or sellers.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  9. #54
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    I still hope we take a flyer on one of Jair Jurggens or Dallas Braden and see what they can do in spring training. They're both pretty young still and only a year or two removed from having had dominant seasons.

    There price tags should be relatively cheap without a long term commitment, but with a hell of alot more potential than the John Smoltz / Brad Penny projects.
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  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bo Sox Fan View Post
    I still hope we take a flyer on one of Jair Jurggens or Dallas Braden and see what they can do in spring training. They're both pretty young still and only a year or two removed from having had dominant seasons.

    There price tags should be relatively cheap without a long term commitment, but with a hell of alot more potential than the John Smoltz / Brad Penny projects.
    Definitely. Jurrjens especially. No harm in trying them out. If they suck, release em. They won't be too expensive.

    Bagwell - again, you're looking at things through some very red glasses... You think Barnes and Ranaudo are going to provide all the pitching we need for the next 5-6 years? Ranaudo has proven nothing, Barnes is still just a prospect who could easily flame out (I like him, but with prospects you never truly know). Who else is there? Rubby and Webster I guess. Maybe Doubront sticks.

    I think we will need other pieces once Lester/Lackey/Buchholz are gone. Sanchez could have been one of those guys, as could Greinke or some of these other guys out there. BC is not doing enough on the pitching front. Even if you think Lester and Buchholz are going to really bounce back, which I think is delusional/wishful thinking.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by ALMVPDUSTY View Post
    Bagwell - again, you're looking at things through some very red glasses... You think Barnes and Ranaudo are going to provide all the pitching we need for the next 5-6 years? Ranaudo has proven nothing, Barnes is still just a prospect who could easily flame out (I like him, but with prospects you never truly know). Who else is there? Rubby and Webster I guess. Maybe Doubront sticks.
    Ranaudo looks like maybe a 1 in 15 shot now, Some think Rubby, Webster, and Owens have or will pass Barnes. So the answer is no. But since you've given 6 years as a range, there will be pitchers (SP and RP both) on the 25 man roster on opening day 2018 that haven't even been drafted yet.

    OTOH, whatever holes the farm cannot fill well in the 2015-2018 window can be bought or dealt for. We will have a much better idea then than today on what we need where, which is why I am against deals past 2 years at this point in time, although 3 years is the cost of business in a few cases.

    I think we will need other pieces once Lester/Lackey/Buchholz are gone.
    Of course we will, show me a team that won't.

    Sanchez could have been one of those guys, as could Greinke or some of these other guys out there. BC is not doing enough on the pitching front. Even if you think Lester and Buchholz are going to really bounce back, which I think is delusional/wishful thinking.
    Grienke would be a huge rsk as Hamilton would have - no way. Sanchez is simply not an impact pitcher, and you're talking about blowing about 6-8% of our yearly budget on a guy we have a good shot to produce in house. It's asinine. If we can't produce Sanchez in house (because we already produced another Beckett and John Tudor for instance) we can buy someone like him in 2015, even if it costs more.

    You have no idea what BC is doing on the pitching front, or what has been offered to him, or offers he has made. His next grading periods are end of ST, end of trade deadline and end of waiver period. At worst he get's an "I"ncomplete at this time.

    I have never believed in Buchholz, in fact I pretty much mapped out his career by the time he had 10 starts in the Majors. Oft injured. Very good at times, immature, not physically strong enough to throw 200 IP seasons back to back. I hope that the best offer we get for Buchholz we take. I think Lackey has a good shot to out pitch Buchholz this year. Dempster too. OTOH, if we get a huge offer for Lester at the deadline, we should probably take it.

    Lester I very much do believe in. I think he's two 5+ rWAR seasons in him, and two more 3.5+'s, hopefully all for us. Talk about delusional Red Sox fans. The ones that want to trade a top #12 SP since 2008 for nicels and dimes on the dollar. Ludicrous and embarassing. I can't wait to do a head count of all the guys that will be cheering for him and said they always believed in him, but were trying to ship him out for pie in the sky.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-19-2012 at 08:03 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nomar View Post
    No he wouldn't. Lester is far better than Sanchez. His peripherals and the way he finished this season lead me to believe he should be able to rebound fine this year. And aside from 2012, he is far better than Sanchez. And when Buchholz is healthy he is better than Sanchez, but durability has made him the lesser player over the course of an 162 game season.
    I've been really surprised to see that Lester's xFIP was 3.82, better than his breakout season in 2008. While he certainly had his struggles that seems to suggest that the team behind him kinda sucked.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by RedSoxtober View Post
    I've been really surprised to see that Lester's xFIP was 3.82, better than his breakout season in 2008. While he certainly had his struggles that seems to suggest that the team behind him kinda sucked.
    SIERA also has him at 3.94 and his LOB% this past season was easily the worst mark of his career by a pretty wide margin. So, there is hope that it was just an unlucky season and that he is due to rebound.

  14. #59
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    ^ & ^^

    good work guys.

    Salty caught 23/30 starts in 2011 3.77 ERA (others caught him at 3.19)
    Salty caught 19/33 starts in 2012 5.62 ERA (others caught him at 4.04)


    So. between Salty sucking, other fielders being replacement level in some cases, and a beat team (after the big deal most of them gave up), and skunk coaching, we have a lot of our answer. The decline and fall of Lester is a myth.

    Lester at his age and accomplishments w/ no contracts considered is after Pedroia the most valuable player going forward on the 25 man roster IMO. No wonder BC didn't flip him for a can of hash.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 12-19-2012 at 09:55 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  15. #60
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    Yeah Lester got raped by LOB%. Not to say that the responsibility of that doesn't fall on the pitcher at all, but it's luck oriented too.

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