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  1. #1
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    Hollinger's Playoff Odds

    http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

    Warriors at 80.3 percent with a better chance to win the division than the Lakers. I guess that comes with the territory of being five games up on them.

  2. #2
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    It's too early, so I don't think those percentages are true just yet

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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by MackShock View Post
    It's too early, so I don't think those percentages are true just yet
    If you ran the season from this point on 5,000 times, we make the playoffs eighty percent of the time.

    It's partly based on how good the team actually is (simple rating system) and where they are now and how they should finish.

    This is true, but you are only right in the sense it gets more accurate with every game played because it takes out more and more variation with each game played.

  4. #4
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    True, I'm not going to argue with that.

    But look at our current road trip, we beat weak teams aside from Brooklyn. Detroit Washington Charlotte all trash. Honestly, our schedule so far has been against easy teams, for the most part. That's why I'm not convinced. Plus what I said yesterday, about getting blown out by good teams, and not blowing out the bad teams. As far as I am concerned, we are still stuck in mediocrity. The Warriors have proven nothing thus far.
    Last edited by MackShock; 12-11-2012 at 03:23 PM.

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  5. #5
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    And just for the record, I am a believer of the playoffs. I will always stand behind the Warriors no matter what. Every year, I will always say that this is our year. When I say that we arent a playoff team, I don't mean that we won't make it. I mean that we will lose easily. It's very likely that we will be first round exit unless we are the 5 seed or better

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  6. #6
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    I'm not gonna argue the point that the Warriors have proven nothing thus far. Aside from a couple of good road wins, Brooklyn and the Clippers, this is true. But don't forget that we have done this, for the most part, without the services of Bogut, so with him in the lineup (if it ever happens) we could potentially end up better than what the projections say. However, I disagree with the comment that we are still stuck in mediocrity. I think we are a good and competitive team. The mediocre Warriors squads of old would have found a way to lose both the Washington and Charlotte games, so I think we have ascended to higher level in our evolution. Do we still have a ways to go? Absolutely, but I like the steps we have taken thus far and can't wait to see what this team can do at full strength.

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    I would agree. Have we made strides? Absolutely. Are we proven? Far from it. You are right, we do have a ways to go. We arent the same team as last season..but at the same time we didnt become a playoff team overnight..

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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by MackShock View Post
    And just for the record, I am a believer of the playoffs. I will always stand behind the Warriors no matter what. Every year, I will always say that this is our year. When I say that we arent a playoff team, I don't mean that we won't make it. I mean that we will lose easily. It's very likely that we will be first round exit unless we are the 5 seed or better
    Any team worse than the 5th seed is not likely to get out of the first round. Thats not just the warriors. it annoys me when people say stuff like "even if the warriors made the playoffs theyd lose in the first round"

    If the warriors had a good showing in the first round (even in a losing effort)- that would be huge for players around the league wanting to come here. I mean- if your option is to tank a season or lose in the first round.... you really think it makes your team look better to choose the tank option?

    Most teams dont stay out of the playoffs for 20 yrs then randomly get in one yr and win it all. Most teams build year by year. The thunder are an example- they werent immediately contenders. They worked there way up.
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    also mackshock- say the warriors do get in as the 6th or 7th seed. thats when they need your "faith" the most.
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    Quote Originally Posted by likemystylez View Post
    Any team worse than the 5th seed is not likely to get out of the first round. Thats not just the warriors. it annoys me when people say stuff like "even if the warriors made the playoffs theyd lose in the first round"

    If the warriors had a good showing in the first round (even in a losing effort)- that would be huge for players around the league wanting to come here. I mean- if your option is to tank a season or lose in the first round.... you really think it makes your team look better to choose the tank option?

    Most teams dont stay out of the playoffs for 20 yrs then randomly get in one yr and win it all. Most teams build year by year. The thunder are an example- they werent immediately contenders. They worked there way up.
    Yeah, I think our first round also depends on the match up. There are no guarantees we lose in the first round. There are always some upset.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MackShock View Post
    True, I'm not going to argue with that.

    But look at our current road trip, we beat weak teams aside from Brooklyn. Detroit Washington Charlotte all trash. Honestly, our schedule so far has been against easy teams, for the most part. That's why I'm not convinced. Plus what I said yesterday, about getting blown out by good teams, and not blowing out the bad teams. As far as I am concerned, we are still stuck in mediocrity. The Warriors have proven nothing thus far.
    Eight road wins are nothing to scoff at, even against weak teams. Even bad teams win their homes games at a 50 percent clip, unless they are really, really bad.

    Other than that, our simple rating system has us as the seventh best west team. This is based on strength of schedule and margin of victory. It's what you are saying except quantified.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    Yeah, I think our first round also depends on the match up. There are no guarantees we lose in the first round. There are always some upset.
    oh I dont think it is definitely a first round exit either, in a 7 game series- home court advantage is very significant though. You're right though- the game is decided on the court, not by regular season records or what analysts say will be the outcome.
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    Well you gotta look at the warriors as a whole. We beat the easy teams, that is what playoff teams do. We aren't gonna go a perfect 30-0 against the East but right now we are 7-1 against the east which is pretty good. if we go .500 against our own conference then we would be 26-26 with the chance of going a reasonable 20-10 against the east... giving us a 46-36 record to finish out the season. And that is what is predicted in hollinger's odds... so it's not ridiculous that we finish at 46-36, but that is just with the worst case senario... plus the warriors are still playing without their starting center, and they lost their best off the bench outside threat... So considering where we are at, i'm looking forward to february

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by MackShock View Post
    True, I'm not going to argue with that.

    But look at our current road trip, we beat weak teams aside from Brooklyn. Detroit Washington Charlotte all trash. Honestly, our schedule so far has been against easy teams, for the most part. That's why I'm not convinced. Plus what I said yesterday, about getting blown out by good teams, and not blowing out the bad teams. As far as I am concerned, we are still stuck in mediocrity. The Warriors have proven nothing thus far.

    its early but heres something that might push towards convincing you a little bit more.

    Rick Bucher brought this up and its a solid point. Aside from the warriors record which looks good. Their wins arent flukes or smoke and mirrors (which was frequently the case with nelly ball). The warriors are not winning games by unlikely players getting really hot at the right times, or by weird mismatches (putting maggette on aldridge or running a 4 guard line up with the forward handling the ball).

    The warriors are getting proffesional wins, they are winning games because they are playing better basketball than their opponents. (That sounds obvious- but its not always the case). Because the warriors are outrebounding their opponents, playing solid defense for 48 minutes, not allowing too many easy shots, and getting contributions from a number of players up and down the roster- They are able to survive bad shooting throughout the early season by klay thompson, injuries to 2 of their top 7 or 8 players, and as many unforced turnovers as any team in the league ) They dont really keep that stat). They are doing this while 3 of their rotation players are rookies and improving every game.
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  15. #15
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    All of that is true..no disagreements..but just my gut feeling. We have a brutal schedule coming up so let's see what happens.

    Lets see if we go 64-18

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