As a Rafa fan the last 5 or so months have been tough but he is back on the court now practicing. He has said he doesnt expect to win the aussie open but his goal is to be 100% by the clay season.
Winning the French is bare minimum for him IMO. I would be happy if he wins 2 slams but i know most people believe thats not going to happen. i still think when he is healthy he is a better grass court player than Novak or Murray. Eventhough Federer won wimbledon, i think he is not as consistent as he used to be so Rafa winning wimbledon is not out of the question.
As for his ranking, i dont think he has a chance at the no 1 ranking and its not smart for him to go for that. He said he is going to play more on clay and less on hard courts to help his knees. he obviously cant play as much tennis as novak or murray so i dont he has chance at no 1.
My expectation: Win 2 Slams, and Finish as World No 2.
BTW i dont believe in Andy Murray. I dont think he will win slams and challenge for no 1 ranking like most people think. i still say Novak finish no 1 and roger/rafa finish no 2. Murray will not win a slam this year.
the thing about rafa (as well as roger), is that they are really vulnerable to a early round upset. someone like john isner can have a very good day and serve their way into a victory against these guys. Especially in week 1 of wimbledon, when the grass is green, would be the best time to take out these guys. the more you equalise the conditions, the more it benefits the the top guys, because then their skill takes over.