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View Poll Results: How likely are the transactions and how would this team finish in 2013?

Voters
23. You may not vote on this poll
  • Likelihood: Are you Ben Cherrington?

    0 0%
  • Likelihood: Likely

    1 4.35%
  • Likelihood: Reasonable

    10 43.48%
  • Likelihood: Unlikely

    8 34.78%
  • Likelihood: Snowball's chance in hell

    3 13.04%
  • Finish: World Series Champs

    0 0%
  • Finish: AL Champs

    0 0%
  • Finish: ALDS Winner

    4 17.39%
  • Finish: Miss playoffs

    9 39.13%
  • Finish: Wheels fell off the bus

    0 0%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    35,298
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    Rate the Sim: quinnjack

    First and foremost I think the Red Sox have players currently left off of their 40-man roster that they're going to make an effort to add to the roster through a few minor moves. Most specifically they will try to make room for Allen Webster, Alex Wilson, Jeremy Hazelbaker, and Josh Fields so that they are not lost to the Rule 5 draft. I'll equate for these through the simulation:

    Arbitration Projected Salaries:

    Alfredo Aceves - $2.75MM
    Scott Atchison - $900K
    Andrew Bailey - $3.7MM
    Daniel Bard - $1.5MM
    Craig Breslow - $2.55MM
    Jacoby Ellsbury - $8MM
    Rich Hill - $1.15MM
    Andrew Miller - $1.6MM
    Franklin Morales - $1.75MM
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $4MM
    Ryan Sweeney - $1.5MM

    Non-Tender:

    1) David Carpenter, RHP

    Trades:

    1) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Ryan Sweeney (OF), and Alfredo Aceves (RHP) to the New York Mets for Ike Davis (1B), Michael Fullmer (RHP), and Adam Kolarek (LHP).

    2) Felix Doubront (LHP), Bryce Brentz (OF), Jose Iglesias (SS) and Brandon Workman (RHP) to the Cleveland Indians for Justin Masterson (RHP), and Asdrubal Cabrera (SS).

    Free Agent Signings:

    1) Brandon McCarthy (RHP) 2 years, $19MM
    2) Dallas Braden (LHP) 1 year, $1.3MM
    3) Cody Ross (OF) 3 years, $22.5MM
    4) Kila Ka'aihue (1B) Minor League Contract
    5) Travis Buck (OF) Minor League Contract
    6) Jeff Manship (RHP) Minor League Contract

    2013 Starting Lineup:

    1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF - $8MM
    2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B - $10.25MM
    3. Will Middlebrooks, 3B - $490K
    4. David Ortiz, DH - $14MM
    5. Ike Davis, 1B - $3MM (Arb. projection)
    6. Cody Ross, RF - $7.5M
    7. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS - $6.5M
    8. Ryan Lavarnway, C - $490K
    9. Ryan Kalish/Jerry Sands, LF - $490K

    Bench:

    1. Dave Ross, C - $3.1MM
    2. Sands/Kalish, OF - $490K
    3. Pedro Ciriaco, INF - $490K
    4. Daniel Nava, OF - $490K

    2013 Starting Rotation:

    1. Jon Lester - $11.625MM
    2. Clay Buchholz - $5.5MM
    3. Brandon McCarthy - $9.5MM
    4. Justin Masterson - $5.9MM (Arb. projection)
    5. John Lackey - $15.25MM

    Bullpen:

    1. Andrew Bailey - $3.7MM
    2. Junichi Tazawa - $490K
    3. Daniel Bard - $1.5MM
    4. Mark Melancon - $490K
    5. Craig Breslow - $2.25MM
    6. Andrew Miller - $1.6MM
    7. Franklin Morales - $1.75MM

    Outside Looking In (Start in minors or injured, contribute during the season):

    Rubby De La Rosa (As a late innings RP)
    Dallas Braden
    Mauro Gomez
    Ivan DeJesus
    Zach Stewart
    Clay Mortensen
    Sandy Rosario
    Chris Carpenter
    Drake Britton
    Alex Wilson
    Josh Fields
    Mitch Maier

    New 40-Man:

    Pitchers: Bailey, Bard, Beato, Braden, Breslow, Britton, Buchholz, C. Carpenter, De La Rosa, Fields, Lackey, Lester, Masterson, McCarthy, Melancon, A. Miller, Morales, Mortensen, Pimentel, Stewart, Tazawa, Webster, A. Wilson.

    C: Lavarnway, Ross.

    INF: A. Cabrera, Ciriaco, Davis, De Jesus, Gomez, Middlebrooks, Pedroia, Valencia.

    OF/DH: Ellsbury, Hazelbaker, Kalish, Nava, Ortiz, Ross, Sands.

    DFA'd & Accept Assignment: Rich Hill, Scott Atchison, Sandy Rosario.

    Total Spent: $124,475,000

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    39,924
    vCash
    1500
    This appears to be written some time ago. Given that handicap, it's good. Well researched and thought out.

    The only real flaws are: I think the two trades were too light on our side - by a good deal.

    Still good.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Posts
    6,796
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    3620
    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    This appears to be written some time ago. Given that handicap, it's good. Well researched and thought out.

    The only real flaws are: I think the two trades were too light on our side - by a good deal.

    Still good.
    yeah I don't think that package would come close to fetching masterson + cabrera, but other than that pretty good
    Lester to the Cubs??


  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Maine
    Posts
    375
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    This appears to be written some time ago. Given that handicap, it's good. Well researched and thought out.

    The only real flaws are: I think the two trades were too light on our side - by a good deal.

    Still good.
    You're correct. I wrote this before any signings had been made by the Sox.

    With the Masterson/Cabrera deal I under estimated the perceived value of Cabrera from the Tribe's standpoint, or, perhaps, all together.
    Here's to feeling good all the time.


  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    16
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by -Lavigne43- View Post
    Trades:

    1) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Ryan Sweeney (OF), and Alfredo Aceves (RHP) to the New York Mets for Ike Davis (1B), Michael Fullmer (RHP), and Adam Kolarek (LHP).

    2) Felix Doubront (LHP), Bryce Brentz (OF), Jose Iglesias (SS) and Brandon Workman (RHP) to the Cleveland Indians for Justin Masterson (RHP), and Asdrubal Cabrera (SS).

    Free Agent Signings:

    1) Brandon McCarthy (RHP) 2 years, $19MM
    2) Dallas Braden (LHP) 1 year, $1.3MM
    Love the FA signings, especially the two above. Wish we could've gotten in on McCarthy, I like the way his GB/HR rates would translate to Fenway--provided we had a backup plan as he's a safe bet to miss 15-25 of the 60 projected starts over the life of the contract due to his chronic shoulder issues. But the Sox could absorb the minimal risk presented. As for Braden--as he said on Twitter, he's "left-handed and has a heartbeat"--anyone heard anything about his recovery from surgery?
    However the trades are a little unrealistic, particularly the Mets trade. Why would the Mets give up a 30 HR, .230 ISO bat for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Alfredo Aceves, and Ryan Sweeney? You can sign a player of Sweeney's caliber on the market, Aceves has little to no value right now (and FA next year), and Saltalamacchia, while better than average, is a FA next year. The only *value* I see for the Mets in that deal is Salty, as they need a catcher (who granted, had a +.200 ISO last year) but the other two involved going to New York do not make up the discrepancy of trading 4 years of Ike Davis for 1 year of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
    In regards to the Indians trade, they are asking for "frontline" pitching for their tradeable assets (Cabrera, Masterson, Choo). If I were Antonetti I would believe that I could get more than a #3 pitcher, a reliever, an all-glove shortstop, and Brentz (although I'm probably higher on him than most) for a pitcher and a shortstop one year removed from 4.7 and 3.8 WAR seasons respectively. Granted, Masterson's issues re: lack of third out pitch/platoon splits have come back, but you have to think that would be selling low at this point? And Asdrubal Cabrera alone, I believe, would net Doubront/Brentz at the very least. For the Indians, I would view it as a neutral gain in the rotation and a loss at shortstop while only getting Brentz and Workman to make up for that.

    Who would you have covering Ross v. RHP (away)? Sands? Is Kalish the other outfield regular?

    One thing I just thought of--with Buchholz, Lackey, and McCarthy all in the starting rotation, there's immense potential for injuries to ravage it. Outside of Braden (would he accept an assignment to the minors?) and Morales, do you believe RDLR would be able to step in?
    Last edited by FenwayFaithless; 12-10-2012 at 05:52 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
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    Wethersfield/Storrs, CT
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    Definitely not enough from us in the trades but I like the final product if you did end up working out the kinks.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    Portland, Maine
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    I love the idea of getting Dallas Braden

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