Royals acquire Shields and Davis from Rays for Myers and prospects

[mtf]

Guthrie has been worth less than 2 WAR twice in the last 6 seasons. He did this with the vast majority of those innings in arguably the toughest division in the sport.

Yep, he pitched a lot of innings in all of those 6 season. He was mediocre at best, and pretty bad at worst during that period. The numbers mostly got progressively worse with each passing year.

2007: 1.21 WHIP, 6.31 K/9, 4.41 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR
2008: 1.23 WHIP, 5.66 K/9, 4.53 FIP, 4.48 xFIP, 2.6 fWAR
2009: 1.42 WHIP, 4.95 K/9, 5.31 FIP, 5.13 xFIP, 1.3 fWAR
2010: 1.16 WHIP, 5,12 K/9, 4.44 FIP, 4.60 xFIP, 2.4 fWAR
2011: 1.34 WHIP, 5.63 K/9, 4.48 FIP, 4.47 xFIP, 2.2 fWAR
2012: 1.41 WHIP, 5.00 K/9, 5.10 FIP, 4.75 xFIP, 1.0 fWAR

Santana's best season was worth nearly 6 (5.8) fWAR in 2008. In 2010 and 2011 he was worth 5.1 fWAR (2.2 and 2.9). He also put up 3.4 fWAR in 2007.

Yeah, I did mention he had 1 good year in 2008 after 3 bad years to begin his career. And has been bad for 3 years (2009, 2010, 2012) and average for 1 year (2011) since then.

Yes, neither was good in 2012. They do have good histories and Guthrie actually pitched well for KC in the second half.

Good histories? Hardly. Being generous, you could say they've been average histories for a starting pitcher.

As I said before, Shields is obviously a great pitcher but the rest of the staff falls within the spectrum of bad to average. There's nothing to be excited about 2 through 5, and no reason to make a bad trade which gives away the future for a 2 year window where the team is still bad.

[SenorGato]

No, there is history of above average in there. EVEN THEN those guys represent huge upgrades over the pitchers that have been staring games for the Royals.

The old staff was bad to terrible. They got over 40 starts from those guys i named plus some guy named Adcock, getting a FIP over ~5 and an ERA around the same. The difference in upping that margin in performance on a record can be very significant, particularly since they actually have a decent looking pen.

It's highly doubtful they're done too. We're looking at this in such a ridiculously different way that there's probably very little chance either will agree, but I think you are simplifying the hell out of the situation. They're not aces - that does not mean they don't represent gains.

It's been suggested before by someone that everyone read The Extra 2% on the Rays...the moving of the margins and small gains that fans often discount as nothings is a huge part of what that book is talking about. Those guys being replaced barely offered replacement level production for their career so even moving up to merely average opens up doors the Royals haven't had opened by their rotation in a long time. Their ace to open the year last year was a tossup between Chen and Hochevar FFS...now those are 3 and 4. This is a pretty big deal as far as the team's ability to win more baseball games than last years 74 win team, even if it is not Internet popular or clearly obvious the perfect way to do it.

[mtf]

It's highly doubtful they're done too. We're looking at this in such a ridiculously different way that there's probably very little chance either will agree, but I think you are simplifying the hell out of the situation. They're not aces - that does not mean they don't represent gains.

So what? They represent gains from bad to slightly less bad. That's perfectly fine. I'm talking about the trade for Shields. The rest of the team is not close to contending, and trading the top end of their farm system for 2 years of James Shields means they are giving themselves a narrow window to compete. Small, incremental improvements are all well and good, but that doesn't fit with this deal.

[Webslinger]

It seems the poll goes to the rays, But why? Myers looks like a pretty good prospect but odorozzi seems kind of middle of the road and the last one is worthless.

[Jeffy25]

Guthrie has had more good years than bad years since a breakout season in 2007.

Name the years he has had above league average success

07, 08, and 10 are the only years his ERA was better than league average.

While, 09, 11, and 12 they were worse.

Meanwhile, his FIP and xFIP has never been league average for a starter.

How has he had more good years than bad? And you have to go back 5 years to find his last consecutive 'good' years, and it was coming up on 3 years ago that he had a 'good' year.



As to your point about the Cubs trade, that hasn't been discussed in awhile.

[Webslinger]

I don't know what Tampa is going to do with another pitching prospect, but myers looks like he'll be a beast. Either that, or he'll be the next Eric Hosmer. Tampa is in desperate need for at least a couple of good hitters, but a Mike Trout type phenom. They have the starting rotation to contend in the post season, but their lineup is absolutely pathetic.