Royals acquire Shields and Davis from Rays for Myers and prospects

[Twitchy]

Travis Snider was never anywhere close to the prospect level as Wil Myers.

He never hit nearly as well as Myers either.

They don't exactly compare.


And I am not acting like it's an absolute that Myers will excel. He has a floor. It's possible that he could bust. It's just not that likely. And he doesn't exactly compare to Snider, they are different players.


Minor leaguers fail when they get to the big leagues all the time. There are exceptions. But when you have a 21 year old crushing in AA and AAA. he has a higher ceiling, than say a 23 year old doing the same thing, or a 19 year old doing the same thing in Rookie ball. The age in which a player is competing compared to the leagues average absolutely matters.

They compare fairly well from a numbers standpoint. Snider was a top 6 prospect according to BA. Snider hit AAA and the majors at a younger age than Myers. Their numbers were fairly comparable. Both had a 151 wRC+ at A ball. Snider was 121 at AA, Myers was 103 in his first time at AA. Snider was 146 (SSS) in AAA and then 186, while Myers was 137. Snider had an awful approach in the lower minors, but his K% was similar to Myers in AA/AAA.

I don't think it's entirely crazy to say their minor league numbers were similar.

[SpecialFNK]

how much was luck involved?
2012 AAA he had .304 AVG, with .349 BABIP.
2012 AA he had .343 AVG, with .412 BABIP.
2011 AA he had .254 AVG, with .312 BABIP.

[Jeffy25]

how much was luck involved?
2012 AAA he had .304 AVG, with .349 BABIP.
2012 AA he had .343 AVG, with .412 BABIP.
2011 AA he had .254 AVG, with .312 BABIP.

When you smoke the ball, you are going to have a high babip

And again, the minor league numbers themselves don't really matter that much. This was just an effort to squash the complaints about his K rate. He projects well, and he should.

[WOwolfOL]

False.

Lee has another year in the minors before he is ready. Escobar is a one year option, with option years for future years depending what happens.

Lee can also play second base, which is a fine option if Escobar excels.

You sign/acquire players to give you depth and provide competition for other players. Obviously Lee isn't ready just yet, and it would be insane to expect him to be. He hasn't played in AAA yet and is just 21.

And Archer is going to start next season, or at least be given the opportunity. He started 4 games this season after a late season call-up. Next year he will be fighting for the 5th rotation spot in ST.



The Royals gave up more than Chicago did.



Probably so.

But Lee would be in Iowa in 2013, and then be fighting to play short and have Castro moved, or be fighting for second allowing Barney to be moved. Or would be trade bait at this point.

Archer probably have their 5th spot locked up, or the best option for next season.

Fuld and Guyer would likely be their 4th/5th outfielders this next season.



And each player would have 6 years of control ahead of them, where as Garza has one year left, and hasn't been much more than a number 2 in his 300 innings of pitching for Chicago on a last place team. I'm sure there are some Cubs fans that wouldn't mind having those guys back. But Garza should get them some talents back of Lee and Archer's caliber back.

Rosscup still has a future with Chicago and Perez is long gone.

Lee is 22 as of November. Anyways, I still stand by the opinion that Lee will not be missed at all considering the options we have for the MIF. He was definitely expendable. He and Archer are both wildcards. Archer really needs to control the walks, the Rays don't suffer high walk rates well. Lee will steal and play very good defense, but might not bring much offense at the upper levels. 20 XBH is a good year for him.

It was still a good trade for the Cubs. Borderline great IMO. If Garza can still get a couple viable pieces back, which I think he will.

[Jeffy25]

Lee is 22 as of November. Anyways, I still stand by the opinion that Lee will not be missed at all considering the options we have for the MIF. He was definitely expendable. He and Archer are both wildcards. Archer really needs to control the walks, the Rays don't suffer high walk rates well. Lee will steal and play very good defense, but might not bring much offense at the upper levels. 20 XBH is a good year for him.

It was still a good trade for the Cubs. Borderline great IMO. If Garza can still get a couple viable pieces back, which I think he will.

Oh I doubt you'll miss either. But the trade as of today, would likely be viewed mostly as a draw. We'll see what Garza gets the Cubs in a trade, and what happens with Archer and Lee.

At the time of the deal, it was slightly in the Rays favor, but it was a mostly fair trade when it happened. I thought Garza was going to surrender more home runs in Wrigley than he has, which has really helped the value of the trade.

[WOwolfOL]

Yeah I wasn't saying the Cubs won the deal - just that they got a fine return and didn't harm their future really at all. I guess the argument was that the Cubs were in a similar position than KC was when they made the deal, and they certainly didn't improve as they envisioned - but all the same, they didn't **** their future, and that's what really matters. That's all I argued. Those 2 players plus some bench fodder isn't really a killer.

[Jeffy25]

Yeah I wasn't saying the Cubs won the deal - just that they got a fine return and didn't harm their future really at all. I guess the argument was that the Cubs were in a similar position than KC was when they made the deal, and they certainly didn't improve as they envisioned - but all the same, they didn't **** their future, and that's what really matters. That's all I argued. Those 2 players plus some bench fodder isn't really a killer.

Well, they didn't give up the top prospect in baseball like KC did.

KC gave up number 1, 30, and then their own personal prospects...number 9 and 20 (1 and 2, 9 and 20 in their own organization)

The Cubs gave up 2 top 100's (Archer and Lee)
Archer was 27 overall
Lee was 92nd overall
and no other top 20's

By B-A

Odorizzi is 68, but number 30 by MLB.com
And Myers is number 1

You didn't give up as much as the Royals

[StayOnBoard]

They compare fairly well from a numbers standpoint. Snider was a top 6 prospect according to BA. Snider hit AAA and the majors at a younger age than Myers. Their numbers were fairly comparable. Both had a 151 wRC+ at A ball. Snider was 121 at AA, Myers was 103 in his first time at AA. Snider was 146 (SSS) in AAA and then 186, while Myers was 137. Snider had an awful approach in the lower minors, but his K% was similar to Myers in AA/AAA.

I don't think it's entirely crazy to say their minor league numbers were similar.

You beat me to it... and I still haven't heard a response on this. Looking at numbers, you can argue Myers might have been slightly better than Snider at their relative ages but it's certainly very close. I don't think it's fair to say they're not remotely comparable.

For the record, I'm not saying Myers will bust or anything - I love the kid.... but no prospect is a sure thing, no matter what their pedigree is going into the majors. Did the Rays make a fantastic trade? You bet your *** they did, but no one has any clue what will happen in the next few years to say how it's going to go one way or another. ****, maybe the Royals win the world series in 2014 and Myers blows out his knee and never plays a season. No one is arguing that the Rays didn't make a steller trade in terms of value or that Drayton Moore is an idiot for trading Myers in a year he should be rebuilding but all this "Myers is a guaranteed stud" talk is way off base in my opinion. He could be nothing more than average or he could be a superstar but I do know for a fact media and fans are more high on Myers than a lot of actual team scouts are.

[StayOnBoard]

Well, they didn't give up the top prospect in baseball like KC did.

KC gave up number 1, 30, and then their own personal prospects...number 9 and 20 (1 and 2, 9 and 20 in their own organization)

The Cubs gave up 2 top 100's (Archer and Lee)
Archer was 27 overall
Lee was 92nd overall
and no other top 20's

By B-A

Odorizzi is 68, but number 30 by MLB.com
And Myers is number 1

You didn't give up as much as the Royals

Myers is actually 2-3 in almost every list I've seen. Always behind Profar, usually ahead of Dylan Bundy but sometimes not... never outside the top 3 though.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

For example...

Not arguing, the Royals certainly gave up more than the Cubs did, but the Cubs system would be a hell of a lot better right now with Archer, Lee, etc still there. I think that trade hurt them a lot more than it helped.

[Jeffy25]

Who has called Myers 'a guaranteed stud?'

[StayOnBoard]

Who has called Myers 'a guaranteed stud?'

I saw someone (might have been you? Honestly don't know...) that said Wil Myer's floor is Nick Swisher, who's a pretty damn good ball player.

His floor is.... Lasting Millage or someone else who's out of the league because the guy has not played a MLB game yet.

[Jeffy25]

I saw someone (might have been you? Honestly don't know...) that said Wil Myer's floor is Nick Swisher, who's a pretty damn good ball player.

His floor is.... Lasting Millage or someone else who's out of the league because the guy has not played a MLB game yet.

His floor is that of a 2 WAR player at this point (I never said Swisher, maybe someone else?)

His defense in right will provide enough value, that he could be a .650 OPS hitter and still be a 2 WAR player.

As long as he remains healthy, he will at least be worthy of a big league roster spot through his 20's. That's his floor. His defense will be good enough to keep him around even if he never hits at this level.

Most kids that hit like he did at his age at least get to stick around in the big leagues.

And Snider wasn't a CF capable of catching and playing third.

[StayOnBoard]

His floor is that of a 2 WAR player at this point (I never said Swisher, maybe someone else?)

His defense in right will provide enough value, that he could be a .650 OPS hitter and still be a 2 WAR player.

As long as he remains healthy, he will at least be worthy of a big league roster spot through his 20's. That's his floor. His defense will be good enough to keep him around even if he never hits at this level.

Most kids that hit like he did at his age at least get to stick around in the big leagues.

And Snider wasn't a CF capable of catching and playing third.

I don't really have an interest with the Snider vs Myers comparison. It was merely an example, which to I can give plenty to. There are TONS of prospects ranked in the top 10 of every baseball America or MLB ranking systems you can find who have flamed out. If you want to toss defense in there too, that's fine and I'll certainly give you that, but I thought majority of the conversation was cycling around whether his bat was going to stick at the big league level. For the record, I agree with you and I think it will. I also think his defense will keep him around long enough to get plenty of chances to mature and have a starting job.

That said, some of the best prospects in baseball were guys like Ian Stewart, Delmon Young, Andy Marte, Cameron Maybin, Brandon Wood, etc. Just can't assume they're going to be good.

[ATL#22]

This wouldn't be a horrible trade for the Royals if they were actually going to contend. Shields is a fantastic pitcher and they tend to cost a lot of money or prospects to acquire. I just wish the Royals had made a few better decisions before this.

[gaughan333]

dom brown


Cameron Maybin has been decent the last couple years