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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by kokes View Post
    Like I said, he's great at getting walks and power. Hitting wise, if you truly believe he's better than Ichiro I don't know what to tell you other then watch a little more baseball.
    He wasn't saying that Dunn is a better all-around player than Ichiro. He's just saying that Dunn has been a more productive hitter, which is true. If you look at them just as batters "in a vacuum", i.e. removing other variables like defense, team needs, salary, etc, Dunn > Ichiro.

    By the way Bags, you've really beaten this Dunn/Ichiro hitting comp into the ground now.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by kokes View Post
    Like I said, he's great at getting walks and power. Hitting wise, if you truly believe he's better than Ichiro I don't know what to tell you other then watch a little more baseball.
    I don't know why Bagwell brought up Ichiro again.

    But he is significantly better with the bat alone than Ichiro.

    By a good margin.

    He creates so many more runs than Ichiro who is singles only. Dunn actually moves around the bases and gets on a lot more often. Vastly better, bat alone mind you, than Ichiro.

    Ichiro is better defensively (obviously) and a better base runner, and thus, likely a better overall player. But with the bat alone, Dunn is much better (career wise).

  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShockerArt View Post
    He wasn't saying that Dunn is a better all-around player than Ichiro. He's just saying that Dunn has been a more productive hitter, which is true. If you look at them just as batters "in a vacuum", i.e. removing other variables like defense, team needs, salary, etc, Dunn > Ichiro.

    By the way Bags, you've really beaten this Dunn/Ichiro hitting comp into the ground now.
    You can't really compare the 2, both totally different styles of hitting.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by kokes View Post
    You can't really compare the 2, both totally different styles of hitting.
    But one creates more value than the other, which is all the point really is.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    But one creates more value than the other, which is all the point really is.
    How does Dunn get the edge on value?
    If guys like Ichiro don't get on in front of him, then Dunn does nothing. IMO, hitter like Dunn depends on the guys hitting above him. His value goes down if nobody is on. He then turns into Mark Reynolds. On the other hand, Ichiro stays the same no matter what.

    When Ichiro came to the Majors, many Seattle execs and people around the league stated often that if Ichiro didn't slap hit he would probably be able to hit 40 homers.

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by kokes View Post
    How does Dunn get the edge on value?
    If guys like Ichiro don't get on in front of him, then Dunn does nothing.
    Well, he doesn't necessarily need Ichiro to get on in front of him, since he has driven himself in well over 400 times in his career.

    Here, I'll break it down for you.

    Runs Created
    Runs Created is the amount of runs a player creates for his team. It's not Runs Scored + Runs Driven In. It's the amount of runs he creates as it relates to singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, hit by pitches etc. How many runs does that player create

    Since 2001, when both players entered the league
    Ichiro - 1145
    Dunn - 1146

    But Ichiro has hit leadoff, so he has had a lot more opportunities.

    Plate Appearances

    Ichiro - 8723
    Dunn - 7210

    In 1500 more PA, Ichiro has created one less run than Dunn offensively.

    Let's break it down in this way.

    With the 1500 more PA in play

    Ichiro has created
    BB - 518
    1B - 2114
    2B - 308
    3B - 80
    HR - 104
    Total Bases reached counting walks - 3124 in 8700 PA, about 37%

    Dunn
    BB - 1170
    1B - 705
    2B - 301
    2B - 10
    HR - 406
    Total Bases reached counting walks - 2892 in 7200 PA, about 40%

    Dunn not only reaches base more, but when he does, he goes more bases per PA. 717 extra base hits for Dunn in 1500 les PA to Ichiro's 492.

    Total bases reached (2B = 2, 3B = 3, HR = 4, 1B = 1)
    Ichiro - 3386
    Dunn - 2961

    1500 PA, add in the walks, and Dunn kills Ichiro.

    Batting average is just so misleading. It doesn't tell you enough. Ichiro doesn't draw walks, and doesn't hit extra base hits. Adam Dunn draws walks, and hits home runs, and doesn't hit singles.

    Here is an additional tidbit of information
    Outs created
    Ichiro - 5550
    Dunn - 4542
    Again, 1500 PA, and 1000 less outs created. Dunn would have to be horrible to create that many outs over his next 1500 PA.

    So Ichiro has a ton more singles. But singles aren't worth as much as a HR or a 2B. But it's worth more than a BB because if men are on base, it advances those runners potential more than one base (but it's essentially equal in value to the walk overall)


    Batting average doesn't give you credit for drawing a walk. It treats it as a non-at bat. But it's close in value to a single.

    And it treats a single as equal to a home run. Well it obviously isn't equal to a home run. A home run moves 4 bases, and every base runner scores. A single moves every base runner either one base, or at most two.



    IMO, hitter like Dunn depends on the guys hitting above him. His value goes down if nobody is on. He then turns into Mark Reynolds. On the other hand, Ichiro stays the same no matter what.
    If Dunn comes up and nobody is on, he has a 40% chance of getting on base. So even if nobody is on, he has a 2 in 5 chance of standing on first base, or a decent chance of driving himself in creating a run completely on his own. Ichiro can't do that. He has to have guys on after him to score him, and he gets on base less.

    When Ichiro came to the Majors, many Seattle execs and people around the league stated often that if Ichiro didn't slap hit he would probably be able to hit 40 homers.
    He probably could, I have seen him take batting practice. It's amazing how much power he generates when he tries to. But he chooses not to. Regardless, that isn't what we are discussing. We are discussing what the players actually produce. For whatever reason, Ichiro relies on his speed and hits ground balls (second highest ground ball rate in baseball behind Jeter). Dunn swings aggressive for the fences, and pitchers nibble with him and he draws a lot of walks, hits a lot of home runs, or chases the bad pitch and strikes out.

    Dunn does create more runs than Ichiro though. OBP, Slugging. These are stats a lot more indicative of creating runs than batting average.

    Dunn vs Ichiro is an extreme example, because both players are at the extreme in the spectrum in both directions. Dunn a very low batting average hitter with a lot of power and on base ability. Ichiro a pure ground ball slapper who tries to out-run every ground ball. He dosen't get extra base hits and he doesn't take pitches. Likewise, no pitchers are afraid of him, they just sort of lob the ball up there and try to help out on defense to get the out.

    Ichiro is a good overall player, because he is elite at both base running and defense. Something Dunn struggles at in both regards. Dunn is just a hitter only. But offensively only. Dunn creates a lot more runs for his team than Ichiro does.


    To be even more specific. Based on the total number of runs created in baseball every season, for instance, last year it was 21,017. How many of those runs were created by walks, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, hit by pitches, etc.

    A walk creates a run 38.9% of the time
    A single creates a run 44.9% of the time
    A double creates a run 63% of the time
    A triple creates a run 80% of the time
    A home run creates a run 100% of the time (and often times multiple runs)
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 12-11-2012 at 09:02 PM.

  7. #52
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    Good for Cleveland. Reynolds does strike out a lot but there's not many better power hitters in the majors right now than him.
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