The lost player that is often forgotten on the Seattle Mariners is their third baseman Kyle Seager. A very good ball player.
His #s last season:
20 HR's, 86 RBIs, 13 SBs, 16.9 K% and 7.1 BB%
.259 AVG, .316 OBP, .423 SLG, .321 wOBA, 108 wRC+
Are these numbers anything special? Not really, but then take a look at his splits:
5 HRs, 26 RBIs, .223 AVG, .307 OBP, .325 SLG, .632 OPS, .102 ISO, .284 wOBA, 83 wRC+
15 HRs, 60 RBIs, .293 AVG, .324 OBP, .511 SLG, .835 OPS, .219 ISO, .357 wOBA, 132 wRC+
A good ball player who generated a 3.6 WAR last year, and suffered from Safeco.
I could be wrong, but are the Mariners bringing the walls in this year? Expect a big season from Kyle Seager.
But look on the bright side. The Mariners won't finish last in the AL West this year.
And woo fricken hoo, the fences are coming in. I can guarantee it is still a pitchers park. If guys need the worst offensive park in the league to succeed, then they blow anyway.
Is it worth all the money that Hamilton is going to cost (and this is assuming he plays to his full potential mind you).
And then still be committed to an aging player for another 3 seasons (at least) at very high payroll amounts.
He is going to become a bad contract in Seattle. He needs to go somewhere where they don't need the draft pick they are forfeiting for the player, and his pay won't inhibit the team from doing future moves.
Seattle is rebuilding. Hamilton doesn't help them enough next season, or in the next 4 seasons, so why waste the 100 million, or whatever he is going to get?
If he you can get him for something like 4/60, then maybe. But he will cost you the 12th overall pick, and a ton of money and a roster spot. I am assuming he is going to gross somewhere close to 20 million a year. And that just makes no sense for Seattle when they are so far away.
What makes you think they would be anything greater than an 80 win team?And the 80 win projection is a little of base. Won 75 last year, so to assume 80 is to assume no one on the team improve whatsoever.
You have a lot of good young players, but none of them made the adjustments last season.
Ackley, Montero, and Smoak are pivotal to the teams future success. For the M's to have a fighting chance in 2013, these three guys will need to turn in .800+ OPS seasons, and likely push .900
And the rotation behind Felix is really really weak. You have some superstar prospects coming along, but you can't really depend on them to be reliable starters as soon as next season, and Vargas is a really bad number 2.
What bat are you going to trade for?I think if we get Hamilton and trade for a bat, we have a shot at contention. We have one of the top MiL systems in the league too.
And your minor league system isn't likely to help you very much in 2013, or really even 2014.
The team is relying on Montero, Ackley, and Smoak to turn into the players you hope they can be. If they can produce well next season, then in the 13-14 off-season you will have a better idea what kind of an organization you have, and then you can determine if a big named free agent makes sense for you.
Maybe you'll want one or two of:
In a year, your organization is going to look a lot different. Keep your draft pick, give a young guy the chance to start and potentially earn his way onto the competitive 2014 team, and let Hamilton age somewhere else. You won't be financially stuck with him, and you can have the freedom to do some other things.
But you don't know what sort of offensive team you have for 2013. You have young guys that could be awesome. But they need another year, and if they play well, then you can add to the list of awesomeness. If they don't, you will need to re-evaluate, and consider another wave of rebuilding, because this group of players didn't work out (on the offensive side). If that happens, you will be thankful you don't have Josh Hamilton on your roster eating 20% of your payroll. If you are good, then you can still add a Josh Hamilton caliber player, who likely doesn't have the flaws that he has.
Last edited by Jeffy25; 12-08-2012 at 04:54 PM.
Hamilton only makes sense for a handful of teams. I know it's nice to fantasize about how he improves your lineup. But he hurts most organizations more than he helps. His contract is not going to be a good one, unless he signs for less than B.J. Upton. He is not going to age well (this isn't really an opinion so much as it's proof of the history of the game) and he has gigantic holes in his swing. He can't really play center any longer, he will be forced to LF/1B/DH very soon (as soon as this season).
The only way I would want Hamilton would be on a very short term deal. Like 3 years maximum.
5 of the targets you named are the same age or older than Josh. How does signing a 33 year old next year make any more sense than a 32 year old this year? None of which are better than Josh Hamilton by the way.
I don't think they need to push .900 OPS to make us contenders. That's absurd. How many teams have 4 .850+ OPS players?
Bill James projects over a .800 OPS from Montero at age 23. Ackley should improve. Seager hit well last year, as did Saunders. they should both improve. Zunino could be up as soon as next year.
See you are willing to make assumptions about the decline of Hamilton, but not the improvement from the other guys.
Last edited by jej; 12-08-2012 at 05:33 PM.
Tigers did last yearI don't think they need to push .900 OPS to make us contenders. That's absurd. How many teams have 4 .850+ OPS players?
Rockies, Cardinals, Rangers, and Brewers each had 3, and another 7 teams had 2.
Mariners were one of 7 teams with none.
And I'm not saying .850 is what they have to do, but .800 OPS (or close to) will be necessary from these guys.
Btw, the Rockies had 6 last year (.800 and better)
Cardinals and Nationals 5 each
11 teams had 4, 2 more had 3
M's and Astros were the only teams without a single player who posted a .800 OPS.
Yes, they could all do well. But why not wait until they have actually done this before you start spending a ton of money? What if these guys don't do well? You will be stuck with an aging, overpaid Hamilton for years to come on a roster that has to be rebuilt again.Bill James projects over a .800 OPS from Montero at age 23. Ackley should improve. Seager hit well last year, as did Saunders. they should both improve. Zunino could be up as soon as next year.
And Zunino, even if called up, likely won't make any impact to the 2013 team.
I'm saying it's premature to sign Hamilton without seeing the improvements of the other guys first.See you are willing to make assumptions about the decline of Hamilton, but not the improvement from the other guys.
If they all had performed well this season, and you guys turned in a 84+ win season in 2012 (without an unsustainable reasoning like 1-run records or something) then I would support this.
But it's too pre-mature, and you should keep that 12th overall pick.
And that's kind of my point about the pitchers. They do blow. Vargas, I can almost guarantee you, is not going to have a good year next year. And that's the same for many of the other pitchers with Seattle.
Either contract is horrible and Gordon is barely a major leaguer.. Dodgers already have the most expensive outfield in all of baseball.. Dodgers would be better served to wait for Cano next offseason.. Cano has a big year and the Yanks team rule about no extensions during the season.. I could see Cano being annoyed with that and the Dodgers ponying up major cash for him.
I don't understand people. Last year Montero was gonna be the next big thing. He had an okay season, and you don't think putting a power left handed batter in front of him wouldn't help? It's a dynamic the Mariners need badly.
What's with all this "they need higher draft picks". They got one of the best farm systems in the MLB. They could end up trading for a hitter, and signing Josh Hamilton.
East coast fans don't know anything about west coast player till they're up for trade, or free agents.
You guys don't know much about the Seattle fanbase. We were last in attendance last year, and it will probably stay that way. We need an impact player.
I'll be the first to say that Seattle sports fans are pretty crappy. Tons of fair weather fans.
Morse is a secondary piece. He isn't gonna be a huge impact bat like Hamilton. We can get him and Hamilton, and keep 3/4 of our top pitching specs.
We can't just sit back and do nothing.
I am against Hamilton for more than 4. 100%. But I am for him for 4 years and under $100M. There's people in the Ms forum that want him for 7/175 if that's what it takes, and I get **** for saying that's nuts. I am one of the more skeptical. That should tell you something about our fan base.