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View Poll Results: Where Will Hamilton Sign?

Voters
178. You may not vote on this poll
  • Red Sox

    17 9.55%
  • Rangers

    40 22.47%
  • Yankees

    29 16.29%
  • Mariners

    37 20.79%
  • Orioles

    10 5.62%
  • Other (specify)

    45 25.28%
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  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoCrew5 View Post
    You guys need a lot more than Hamilton if you wanna pass the Angels, Rangers, or A's. You'll probably be 4th regardless of what you do this off-season ahead of the Astros.

    Hamilton is a good player, but he's a huge risk, and a risk that the Mariners SHOULDN'T take. Save the money for next off-season when the FA class should be a lot bigger.
    It's really not IMO

  2. #77
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    The lost player that is often forgotten on the Seattle Mariners is their third baseman Kyle Seager. A very good ball player.

    His #s last season:

    20 HR's, 86 RBIs, 13 SBs, 16.9 K% and 7.1 BB%
    .259 AVG, .316 OBP, .423 SLG, .321 wOBA, 108 wRC+

    Are these numbers anything special? Not really, but then take a look at his splits:

    Home:

    5 HRs, 26 RBIs, .223 AVG, .307 OBP, .325 SLG, .632 OPS, .102 ISO, .284 wOBA, 83 wRC+

    Away:

    15 HRs, 60 RBIs, .293 AVG, .324 OBP, .511 SLG, .835 OPS, .219 ISO, .357 wOBA, 132 wRC+

    A good ball player who generated a 3.6 WAR last year, and suffered from Safeco.

    I could be wrong, but are the Mariners bringing the walls in this year? Expect a big season from Kyle Seager.

  3. 12-08-2012, 04:01 PM
    Reason
    Trolling

  4. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by jammastershake View Post
    somebody hand me my calculator so i can calculate his wOBA lol and his wRC+ haha and his war ha lol
    what the hell are you talking about...?

  5. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtf View Post
    what the hell are you talking about...?
    he doesn't know.

  6. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    So we should just sit around and suck? Yeah, that makes sense when we were last in attendance. Don't try to improve just because the division is good.

    And the 80 win projection is a little of base. Won 75 last year, so to assume 80 is to assume no one on the team improve whatsoever.

    I think if we get Hamilton and trade for a bat, we have a shot at contention. We have one of the top MiL systems in the league too.
    It'd be better for the Mariners to continue to suck for a little while longer so they can get better draft picks. Even with the addition of Hamilton and even another hitter, the Mariners won't be able to compete with the Rangers or Angels. Additionally, with the fences moving in, the pitchers are going to become more susceptible to giving up runs and that will cause their home splits to start resembling their road splits a little more. More than half of the Mariners' pitching staff had terrible road splits in 2012, so it'd be dumb to assume that the M's would be able to compete without good pitching and an offense on par with the Angels or Rangers.

    But look on the bright side. The Mariners won't finish last in the AL West this year.

  7. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by TO Rapz View Post
    The lost player that is often forgotten on the Seattle Mariners is their third baseman Kyle Seager. A very good ball player.

    His #s last season:

    20 HR's, 86 RBIs, 13 SBs, 16.9 K% and 7.1 BB%
    .259 AVG, .316 OBP, .423 SLG, .321 wOBA, 108 wRC+

    Are these numbers anything special? Not really, but then take a look at his splits:

    Home:

    5 HRs, 26 RBIs, .223 AVG, .307 OBP, .325 SLG, .632 OPS, .102 ISO, .284 wOBA, 83 wRC+

    Away:

    15 HRs, 60 RBIs, .293 AVG, .324 OBP, .511 SLG, .835 OPS, .219 ISO, .357 wOBA, 132 wRC+

    A good ball player who generated a 3.6 WAR last year, and suffered from Safeco.

    I could be wrong, but are the Mariners bringing the walls in this year? Expect a big season from Kyle Seager.
    That OBP is going to have to come up a little more before I consider him a good hitter.

  8. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by GA16Angels View Post
    It'd be better for the Mariners to continue to suck for a little while longer so they can get better draft picks. Even with the addition of Hamilton and even another hitter, the Mariners won't be able to compete with the Rangers or Angels. Additionally, with the fences moving in, the pitchers are going to become more susceptible to giving up runs and that will cause their home splits to start resembling their road splits a little more. More than half of the Mariners' pitching staff had terrible road splits in 2012, so it'd be dumb to assume that the M's would be able to compete without good pitching and an offense on par with the Angels or Rangers.

    But look on the bright side. The Mariners won't finish last in the AL West this year.
    The fanbase isn't going to let that fly. Why not try to win now and later? If we aren't gonna win for 4 years anyway, Hamilton won't hold them back.

    And woo fricken hoo, the fences are coming in. I can guarantee it is still a pitchers park. If guys need the worst offensive park in the league to succeed, then they blow anyway.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  9. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    So we should just sit around and suck? Yeah, that makes sense when we were last in attendance. Don't try to improve just because the division is good.
    What's the difference for the M's from winning 75 games to 80 games next season?

    Is it worth all the money that Hamilton is going to cost (and this is assuming he plays to his full potential mind you).

    And then still be committed to an aging player for another 3 seasons (at least) at very high payroll amounts.

    He is going to become a bad contract in Seattle. He needs to go somewhere where they don't need the draft pick they are forfeiting for the player, and his pay won't inhibit the team from doing future moves.

    Seattle is rebuilding. Hamilton doesn't help them enough next season, or in the next 4 seasons, so why waste the 100 million, or whatever he is going to get?

    If he you can get him for something like 4/60, then maybe. But he will cost you the 12th overall pick, and a ton of money and a roster spot. I am assuming he is going to gross somewhere close to 20 million a year. And that just makes no sense for Seattle when they are so far away.


    And the 80 win projection is a little of base. Won 75 last year, so to assume 80 is to assume no one on the team improve whatsoever.
    What makes you think they would be anything greater than an 80 win team?

    You have a lot of good young players, but none of them made the adjustments last season.

    Ackley, Montero, and Smoak are pivotal to the teams future success. For the M's to have a fighting chance in 2013, these three guys will need to turn in .800+ OPS seasons, and likely push .900

    And the rotation behind Felix is really really weak. You have some superstar prospects coming along, but you can't really depend on them to be reliable starters as soon as next season, and Vargas is a really bad number 2.

    I think if we get Hamilton and trade for a bat, we have a shot at contention. We have one of the top MiL systems in the league too.
    What bat are you going to trade for?

    And your minor league system isn't likely to help you very much in 2013, or really even 2014.

    The team is relying on Montero, Ackley, and Smoak to turn into the players you hope they can be. If they can produce well next season, then in the 13-14 off-season you will have a better idea what kind of an organization you have, and then you can determine if a big named free agent makes sense for you.

    Maybe you'll want one or two of:
    Brian McCann
    Justin Morneau
    Mike Morse
    Robinson Cano
    Chase Utley
    Jacoby Ellsbury
    Curtis Granderson
    Beltran
    Nelson Cruz
    Shin Soo-Choo
    Hunter Pence
    Cory Hart

    In a year, your organization is going to look a lot different. Keep your draft pick, give a young guy the chance to start and potentially earn his way onto the competitive 2014 team, and let Hamilton age somewhere else. You won't be financially stuck with him, and you can have the freedom to do some other things.

    But you don't know what sort of offensive team you have for 2013. You have young guys that could be awesome. But they need another year, and if they play well, then you can add to the list of awesomeness. If they don't, you will need to re-evaluate, and consider another wave of rebuilding, because this group of players didn't work out (on the offensive side). If that happens, you will be thankful you don't have Josh Hamilton on your roster eating 20% of your payroll. If you are good, then you can still add a Josh Hamilton caliber player, who likely doesn't have the flaws that he has.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 12-08-2012 at 04:54 PM.

  10. #84
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    Hamilton only makes sense for a handful of teams. I know it's nice to fantasize about how he improves your lineup. But he hurts most organizations more than he helps. His contract is not going to be a good one, unless he signs for less than B.J. Upton. He is not going to age well (this isn't really an opinion so much as it's proof of the history of the game) and he has gigantic holes in his swing. He can't really play center any longer, he will be forced to LF/1B/DH very soon (as soon as this season).

    The only way I would want Hamilton would be on a very short term deal. Like 3 years maximum.

  11. #85
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    5 of the targets you named are the same age or older than Josh. How does signing a 33 year old next year make any more sense than a 32 year old this year? None of which are better than Josh Hamilton by the way.

    I don't think they need to push .900 OPS to make us contenders. That's absurd. How many teams have 4 .850+ OPS players?

    Bill James projects over a .800 OPS from Montero at age 23. Ackley should improve. Seager hit well last year, as did Saunders. they should both improve. Zunino could be up as soon as next year.

    See you are willing to make assumptions about the decline of Hamilton, but not the improvement from the other guys.
    Last edited by jej; 12-08-2012 at 05:33 PM.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  12. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    5 of the targets you named are the same age or older than Josh. How does signing a 33 year old next year make any more sense than a 32 year old this year? None of which are better than Josh Hamilton by the way.
    I'm not saying you certainly sign those guys over Hamilton. I'm just saying your teams needs will be more prevalent in a year, and you might want someone like a Mike Morse on a three year deal next year, especially when he won't cost what Hamilton will, and you will have plenty of money and flexibility to do things. If you sign Hamilton, you won't have a lot of freedom to be active next off-season if you need to be, or if Hamilton fails.

    I don't think they need to push .900 OPS to make us contenders. That's absurd. How many teams have 4 .850+ OPS players?
    Tigers did last year
    Rockies, Cardinals, Rangers, and Brewers each had 3, and another 7 teams had 2.

    Mariners were one of 7 teams with none.

    And I'm not saying .850 is what they have to do, but .800 OPS (or close to) will be necessary from these guys.

    Btw, the Rockies had 6 last year (.800 and better)
    Cardinals and Nationals 5 each
    11 teams had 4, 2 more had 3

    M's and Astros were the only teams without a single player who posted a .800 OPS.

    Bill James projects over a .800 OPS from Montero at age 23. Ackley should improve. Seager hit well last year, as did Saunders. they should both improve. Zunino could be up as soon as next year.
    Yes, they could all do well. But why not wait until they have actually done this before you start spending a ton of money? What if these guys don't do well? You will be stuck with an aging, overpaid Hamilton for years to come on a roster that has to be rebuilt again.

    And Zunino, even if called up, likely won't make any impact to the 2013 team.

    See you are willing to make assumptions about the decline of Hamilton, but not the improvement from the other guys.
    I'm saying it's premature to sign Hamilton without seeing the improvements of the other guys first.

    If they all had performed well this season, and you guys turned in a 84+ win season in 2012 (without an unsustainable reasoning like 1-run records or something) then I would support this.

    But it's too pre-mature, and you should keep that 12th overall pick.

  13. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    The fanbase isn't going to let that fly. Why not try to win now and later? If we aren't gonna win for 4 years anyway, Hamilton won't hold them back.

    And woo fricken hoo, the fences are coming in. I can guarantee it is still a pitchers park. If guys need the worst offensive park in the league to succeed, then they blow anyway.
    Well the "fan base" has been dealing with it for a while now. 2-3 more years won't hurt them. The fans will come back once the M's start winning again, and Josh Hamilton won't do that for them. If they sign him and they don't win, it'd essentially be a waste of money.

    And that's kind of my point about the pitchers. They do blow. Vargas, I can almost guarantee you, is not going to have a good year next year. And that's the same for many of the other pitchers with Seattle.

  14. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan View Post
    I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers made a big play for him and not Grienke. They could move Gordon and Ethier for a starter and still sign a guy like Marcum or McCarthy.

    Either contract is horrible and Gordon is barely a major leaguer.. Dodgers already have the most expensive outfield in all of baseball.. Dodgers would be better served to wait for Cano next offseason.. Cano has a big year and the Yanks team rule about no extensions during the season.. I could see Cano being annoyed with that and the Dodgers ponying up major cash for him.

  15. #89
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    I don't understand people. Last year Montero was gonna be the next big thing. He had an okay season, and you don't think putting a power left handed batter in front of him wouldn't help? It's a dynamic the Mariners need badly.

    What's with all this "they need higher draft picks". They got one of the best farm systems in the MLB. They could end up trading for a hitter, and signing Josh Hamilton.

    East coast fans don't know anything about west coast player till they're up for trade, or free agents.

  16. #90
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    You guys don't know much about the Seattle fanbase. We were last in attendance last year, and it will probably stay that way. We need an impact player.

    I'll be the first to say that Seattle sports fans are pretty crappy. Tons of fair weather fans.

    Morse is a secondary piece. He isn't gonna be a huge impact bat like Hamilton. We can get him and Hamilton, and keep 3/4 of our top pitching specs.

    We can't just sit back and do nothing.

    I am against Hamilton for more than 4. 100%. But I am for him for 4 years and under $100M. There's people in the Ms forum that want him for 7/175 if that's what it takes, and I get **** for saying that's nuts. I am one of the more skeptical. That should tell you something about our fan base.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


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