Are we overvaluing our players?

[acerimusdux]

Depends how you look at it. F-Mart wouldn't be on the field so he's out, Milledge is so bad he's in Japan because nobody wants him and only Gomez is respectable out of the three but his career OBP is putrid at .294

Fernando played over 100 games in the outfield last season. And he had an .875 OPS in AAA and .766 in MLB.

Milledge in Japan hit .300/.379/.485 with 21 homers and 65 RBI. And he walked nearly as often as he struck out.

And Gomez last year was worth 3.5 WAR; he only had a .305 OBP, but he hit 19 HR to go along with the plus defense and base running.

Not saying these guys are great. But, Lucas Duda was worth -1.1 WAR last year, Kirk was worth +0.9, Valdespin worth +0.2, and Baxter worth +1.2. Those are your options on the current roster. Are you really at all confident they are any better?

I tend to think Fernando wouldn't be at least better defensively than Duda, and will probably hit nearly as much as well. And Milledge at this point might be about as good as Kirk. Maybe he's making more money in Japan, but he's a better overall player than most of the guys who the Mets are looking at as right handed bench options.

[bklynny67]

No everyone else undervalues our players. Youre exactly right. I dont know why people think Shields is much better than Niese either. He's not. Niese is 5 years younger, a lefty, and coming off an awesome season that was damn similar to Shields's season. Niese isn't even in his prime yet. For the next 5 years, I will take Niese over Shields 10 times out of 10


At the same time, Why do people even want to trade Niese? He's awesome, and a DAMN good #3 starter. Harvey, Wheeler, and Niese, with maybe DIckey, Johan, Gee, etc in there a couple years down the road? Filthy rotation.

Good example of overvaluing Niese going on right here...

Look, i like Niese, but if it weren't for a .340 ERA season he just had, you wouldn't be valuing him very high at all. His two previous seasons were not good. High ERA, terrible pathetic WHIP, just all around mediocre-bad numbers. One season doesn't make his value go through the roof. I wouldn't mind holding onto Niese but if we can get a young hitting prospect like Myers, you do that deal all day and without hesitation. And the Mets would make that deal, problem is KC is smarter than that. But i would definitely trade Niese, Flores, and another mid-low level prospect for him if that'd be enough.

[YoungStuna]

This is the pitcher Niese was supposed to be. His peripherals suggested it, and now he has done it. I don't expect him to go back into that mid 4 ERA mode again.

[bklynny67]

I'd keep him around a little longer. There are still people out there who think he's not as good a prospect as Mike Olt.

Where I want Flores this spring training, is right there at 3B taking reps alongside David Wright. I want him following Wright around all camp. I want him working on his footwork at 3B, and convincing people by the end of this season that he can not only be an acceptable defender there, but that he can actually be good. I'm confident the bat is going to be good, he only just turned 21 a couple of months ago. You aren't going to hurt yourself hanging onto this kid until he's 22 or 23. Assuming he's ready for a big league job by then, I'm not worried about if that is going to come with another team.

I agree with this. We don't have to trade Flores right now unless we're getting a Myers or d'Arnaud type prospect. Even if he doesn't have a position with us, it'd be very hard for him to lower his trade value over the next couple years. Chances are his value goes up and we'd be able to get more for him later if it comes to that..... or maybe he slots into RF.. who knows..

[dunbummin]

I agree with this. We don't have to trade Flores right now unless we're getting a Myers or d'Arnaud type prospect. Even if he doesn't have a position with us, it'd be very hard for him to lower his trade value over the next couple years. Chances are his value goes up and we'd be able to get more for him later if it comes to that..... or maybe he slots into RF.. who knows..

Of course, we don't have to trade Flores now. Last season at Binghamton he played 24 games at 2B as opposed to 26 at third, and he handled it well. If we can get value for Murphy in a trade this off season, I could see Wilmer in a platoon with Valdespin at 2B next season, and possibly winning the job outright by 2014.

On the other hand, if the only way we could get a Myers or D'Arnaud was by including Flores, I'd drive him to the airport and load his bags onto the conveyor.

[fanofclendennon]

Yes it is a good thing, in general. With the way the Mets have failed to produce posi prospects however, ie they usually flop badly or they get here and they're 26 and limited, I would prefer they cashed in say Flores whose only real posi is 3B.

To be honest I am sick and tired of the prospect position merry-go-round. Look at the evidence, the last kid we messed round with because he couldn't play defense anywhere, has only developed into a just-about-ok 2B - overall.

Is it worth spending 3-4 years messing round with Flores? I think not. And please, don't say 'It won't take that long' because the Mets set their minds on one course of action (finding a position for Murphy is a great example) they will continue with it come hell or high water.

If you're giving a 21 year old another added pressure, don't expect great results, there are lots of 3B needy teams, a quality 3B is one of the areas in the game where supply vastly exceeds demand.

When was the last time the Mets changed the position of a prospect who went on to become a 'big bat' whilst also playing good defense? I assume they're talking the OF, we already know this kid is pretty slow.

Don't over think it, we have a good 3B for another 8 years, he is surplus to reqs.

I don't think Murphy is a great example because he didn't come up as a shortstop like Flores did, and that speaks to a certain level of athleticism that Murphy never had.

That said, i think your barometer of 1-2 years is a good one. I'd hold on to him for another two years. At that point, if they havent' crapped or gotten off the pot yet and found him a position, then they have to trade him.

It really shouldnt take 2-3 years but your point is well taken nonetheless.

[Marty Mcfly]

I don't think Murphy is a great example because he didn't come up as a shortstop like Flores did, and that speaks to a certain level of athleticism that Murphy never had.

That said, i think your barometer of 1-2 years is a good one. I'd hold on to him for another two years. At that point, if they havent' crapped or gotten off the pot yet and found him a position, then they have to trade him.

It really shouldnt take 2-3 years but your point is well taken nonetheless.

Trouble is in 1-2 years he COULD have regressed badly, whilst still being a prospect his value is about as high as it is likely to get.

Let's not flop-Mart this by getting greedy.

[metswon69]

Trouble is in 1-2 years he COULD have regressed badly, whilst still being a prospect his value is about as high as it is likely to get.

Let's not flop-Mart this by getting greedy.

That's not true.

Flores is moving to a much more hitting friendly environment soon in the PCL where the league batting average is .278.

He should rake there and it certainly should increase his trade value with better offensive numbers overall.

Cashman field (home of the Las Vegas 51's) is known as Coor's Field Jr. and much of the PCL has similar hitter friendly environments.

I would hold off on comparing Flores to any of the Met's prior failures prospect wise.

Almost all scouting reports on the kid (from BA,BP,etc etc) don't question his bat but more his play in the field.

[fanofclendennon]

Trouble is in 1-2 years he COULD have regressed badly, whilst still being a prospect his value is about as high as it is likely to get.

Let's not flop-Mart this by getting greedy.

I think it's worth the risk. Let's not forget F-Mart was already injury prone at this stage. Meanwhile, not only is Flores raking but he's staying on the field too.

Also, let's not forget the whole point of having minor leaguers in the first place. It's to develop them so they can help the big league team. Of course for the right deal you trade anyone. But i wouldnt be so quick to toss in Flores so we can get a high mediocre player in return.

[metswon69]

Three letters:

P

C

L

He'll hit, and there is little question he can hit.

It's his glove and the fact he is a below average runner that are issues.