Are we overvaluing our players?

[Rio40]

So I suggested Myers for Niese, Flores and Valdespin in the Will Myers forum. It seems that when any of us make a trade suggestion everyone in their jumps down our throats devaluing Niese or Dickey.

I'm wondering why that is? Are we overvaluing them or is it more of the fact that its the Mets and the Mets organization is looked downed upon by other fans?

Everyone seems to believe Shields (2 years of control) is a far better trade then Niese. Why is that? Can anyone see they Royals making a run in the playoffs in the next 2 years?

[Claymation]

So I suggested Myers for Niese, Flores and Valdespin in the Will Myers forum. It seems that when any of us make a trade suggestion everyone in their jumps down our throats devaluing Niese or Dickey.

I'm wondering why that is? Are we overvaluing them or is it more of the fact that its the Mets and the Mets organization is looked downed upon by other fans?

Everyone seems to believe Shields (2 years of control) is a far better trade then Niese. Why is that? Can anyone see they Royals making a run in the playoffs in the next 2 years?

Wil Myers has his own forum? And you think we are overvaluing our prospects?

[Claymation]

Jordany has no value.

[The-rock-man]

As sports fans, its our perrogative for our favorite team. We Mets fans are especially guilty; Millege, F-Mart, and now Flores (man without a position). Heck most of us feel Mejia and Familia are untouchable.. but what are they really? Just potential relievers! I'm sure we all see front line starters, but did you see the way Duda, Kirk, V-spin and company faded last year, ouch!

To best evaluate our talent, we need to read someone elses predictions not affiliated with the team.

[The-rock-man]

Regarding Sheilds VS Niese.. Niese is the real deal and younger! If Niese had a second year of putting it all together under his belt, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

[Rio40]

Jordany has no value.

Sorry the Should K.C. trade Will Myers thread...

All I am saying is to me Niese, Flores and Valdespin (to a team with no second man) sounds like a much better deal then Shields for Myers.

Yet everyone seems to jump down your throat anytime Niese and Myers are in the same sentence. They then say Shields is far more valuable to K.C. I really just don't get that.

I'm not saying I think we are overvaluing our players. Im asking if anyone thinks we are since everyone else seems to be undervaluing Niese and Dickey.

[Rio40]

As sports fans, its our perrogative for our favorite team. We Mets fans are especially guilty; Millege, F-Mart, and now Flores (man without a position). Heck most of us feel Mejia and Familia are untouchable.. but what are they really? Just potential relievers! I'm sure we all see front line starters, but did you see the way Duda, Kirk, V-spin and company faded last year, ouch!

To best evaluate our talent, we need to read someone elses predictions not affiliated with the team.

I still believe in Kirk. I think he needs a full year to prove himself. Duda I still think can become a good MLB hitter but as a DH that could step in to play outfield and 1B when needed. V-Spin is an enigma. He has the talent to be great but can't be coached.

Flores I was never high on. He seems to be Murphy with Power. Probably has more value to another team that has holes at third or first base.

[kmo429]

No everyone else undervalues our players. Youre exactly right. I dont know why people think Shields is much better than Niese either. He's not. Niese is 5 years younger, a lefty, and coming off an awesome season that was damn similar to Shields's season. Niese isn't even in his prime yet. For the next 5 years, I will take Niese over Shields 10 times out of 10


At the same time, Why do people even want to trade Niese? He's awesome, and a DAMN good #3 starter. Harvey, Wheeler, and Niese, with maybe DIckey, Johan, Gee, etc in there a couple years down the road? Filthy rotation.

[NY_Heartbreak]

Of course we are. But so are they.

[DirtyJerZ]

I feel like KC is a bigger culprit for overvaluing their players than we are. They do it every year. They talked about Hochevar as if he was going to be a lights out ace. Hosmer had his own section of sports center updates after his late year call up a couple years ago because of all the hype. Alex Gordon, who is a nice player, was supposed to be much more than he is. Wil Meyers, who might be great, is being talked about as if he is Harper/Trout territory. I think that KC and the Yankees overvalue their system more than we do. KC just gets away with it because they are irrelevant, and the Yankees because they struck gold in their system like 20 years ago.

[Claymation]

Sorry the Should K.C. trade Will Myers thread...

All I am saying is to me Niese, Flores and Valdespin (to a team with no second man) sounds like a much better deal then Shields for Myers.

Yet everyone seems to jump down your throat anytime Niese and Myers are in the same sentence. They then say Shields is far more valuable to K.C. I really just don't get that.

I'm not saying I think we are overvaluing our players. Im asking if anyone thinks we are since everyone else seems to be undervaluing Niese and Dickey.

Myers will not be as good as Trout or Harper, Jason Parks doesn't think Myers is worth Wheeler.

[jomota]

Your top 2-3 starters are important…4-5 not so much and are expendabl

6-7 of your starting batters/fielders are important, the other 2-3 not so much and are expendable

If you have a stickout closer, he is important. The others not so much and are expendable. Note: most teams do not have such a player.

The rest of the bullpen and probably all of the bench is expendable.

You probably have 2-3-4 relatively sure fire prospects in the minors. The others are expendable.

There are certainly exceptions to this line of thinking but, in most cases, these other players are fairly easy to replace.

The Mets need 4 position players. If you have to "overspend" a little to get some of these players, you do it. If another team wants you to sweeten the pot by throwing in some replaceable, low level minor leaguer, you do it.

It's not like we are dealing from a position of strength here.

[Marty Mcfly]

Trade Flores in a package for someone who actually has a position.

[acerimusdux]

I think it's more people are over-valuing other teams' players.

Niese isn't anything that special, he's a solid #3. But that may be all Shields really is right now. But Shields had that one year where he was an all-star and finished with an ERA under 3.00, so people think he's that guy.

But look at Shields last 4 years:
year ERA+ RA9 Avg RAA
2009 105 4.63 4.60 -02
2010 075 5.67 4.10 -37
2011 134 3.00 3.88 +24
2012 108 4.07 4.24 +03

The Avg column is RA9Avg from Baseball-Reference, their estimate of what an average pitcher would have done with the same opponents, defense, and ballparks.

Compare to Niese:
year ERA+ RA9 Avg RAA
2010 093 5.03 4.36 -13
2011 083 5.03 4.57 -09
2012 113 3.64 4.58 +17

Shields is better, especially due to his ability to give you innings. But consider age, and the cost of the contract, and I'd rather have Niese. People think Shields is better than he is in part because he plays on a good team with good defense behind him. But the reality is, only one year in the last 4 has he really been better than average. You might well be better off with Niese ages 26-30 than Shields ages 31-34, for example (even if you could extend Shields, which might be unlikely).

[Marty Mcfly]

If your aim is to win the WS next year or the year after you want Shields. Otherwise take Niese. It's that simple.

Shields plays in a brutal offensive division, Niese does not.