Revere Should Have Been Obtained

[NY_Heartbreak]

I think the frustration here is that the Mets have a dire need for three major league outfielders and all we see is other teams like the Phillies trading for major league outfielders.

Hell, as bad as our outfield was last year it might even be worse in 2013 since we've already lost our best hitting outfielder, Scott Hairston.

Now THAT's pathetic.

That said:

Scott Hairston came out of nowhere these last two seasons. Nothing in his past suggested he would ever hit like he did in 2011 and 2012. I'm betting that he will be the next player to test positive.

Yeah that's true. It makes sense to me though. Why commit to FA outfielders this season when Sandy doesn't even know if Dickey or Niese will be here. I'd really like to see some signings, but I can understand the delay.

As for Hairston, I think he surprised everyone. I've also seen reports that the Mets are trying to bring him back.

[Bluetug]

Wow. A fellow old timer!

But Sandy and M Donald are cut from different cloths. Sandy is a highly skilled business professional and communicator who has perfected the art of saying nothing while making it seem like something.

M. Donald was just an arrogant rich man who knew he held all the cards.

Quite true with the same results, another year of misery.

[acerimusdux]

Simply put, Revere would be the best outfielder on the Mets right now. But that isn't saying much. If it had only taken Gee to get him then I would do it. But I wouldn't trade Gee and Familia/Fulmer/Tapia for Revere. He's not enough of an impact player.

Agree.

What Revere has done so far is pretty near to his ceiling. It's hard for me to believe he can consistently be more than +15 runs above average on defense and base running combined. But I think he can sustain about that, and he can be a solid 2.0 WAR player even with a .300 wOBA. If he can get that up to a .320 wOBA, he could even be a 3.0 WAR player.

It's not certain either though, that he can sustain even a .300 wOBA. His .300 wOBA this year was based on a .325 BABIP, and while he has speed and hits a ton of groundballs, he also doesn't hit an unusual number of line drives, and hits very few doubles. So overall his BABIP will probably tend to be not too far above league average. There's little chance here of Ichiro like BABIP.

So if everything goes right, and especially if he improves those walk rates, he can be a slightly above average +3.0 WAR regular for a few years, keeping in mind, his prime is right now, as speed peaks on average at age 24. More likely though, I think he settles in as about a 1.5-2.0 WAR fringe regular.

[fanofclendennon]

Quite true with the same results, another year of misery.

Indeed.

And welcome to our forum!

[metsbulls1025]

The dude only had 29 walks in over 500 at bates. His OBP was also below .350.

I am not trading Familia who is our second best prospect since Harvey was promoted along with our 4th or 5th starter for a singles hitting OF just because we need help at all 3 OF positions.

Not to mention Familia is a name that is being tossed around as someone added to a package of Dickey or Niese to bring back a guy like Will Meyers. To many people are getting worked up over a player that was not worth it.

[SILVER SEAVER]

The dude only had 29 walks in over 500 at bates. His OBP was also below .350.

I am not trading Familia who is our second best prospect since Harvey was promoted along with our 4th or 5th starter for a singles hitting OF just because we need help at all 3 OF positions.

Not to mention Familia is a name that is being tossed around as someone added to a package of Dickey or Niese to bring back a guy like Will Meyers. To many people are getting worked up over a player that was not worth it.

Well Reyes had 27 walks in 696 AB's (.300 OBP) in 2005 but because he was able to do other things to help the team win it was overlooked. I am not saying they should have mortgaged the farm for Revere by any means but Worley ain't all that and that's all it took to acquire Revere so it was quite possible if the Mets dangled either Gee or Familia they could've landed him. Revere would give the Mets speed which in Citi Field could mean more extrabase hits like triples that we lost after Reyes and Pagan left, not to mention the guy is a sparkplug at the top of the lineup and being only 24 can work on his plate discipline and up his walk total. And defense in center would be addressed as well.

[metsbulls1025]

Well Reyes had 27 walks in 696 AB's (.300 OBP) in 2005 but because he was able to do other things to help the team win it was overlooked. I am not saying they should have mortgaged the farm for Revere by any means but Worley ain't all that and that's all it took to acquire Revere so it was quite possible if the Mets dangled either Gee or Familia they could've landed him. Revere would give the Mets speed which in Citi Field could mean more extrabase hits like triples that we lost after Reyes and Pagan left, not to mention the guy is a sparkplug at the top of the lineup and being only 24 can work on his plate discipline and up his walk total. And defense in center would be addressed as well.

He could give the Mets more speed, but with all that speed he had 13 doubles and 6 triples. So it isn't like he was doing those extra things that Reyes could. The one thing he did do was steal bases after hitting those singles. In turn that makes it an extra base hit.

Gee or Familia wouldn't have beat the Phillies package. If Gee and Familia are seen as the same type of package we would have to hope they valued our package more. If not we would have to of added to the deal and then it makes it even more of a LOL moment to do the deal.

I want this team improved just like the next guy. I also understand they want to see what they get back for Dickey if they trade him to move on. I will be pissed if we end up keeping Dickey, don't improve by trades, and have to sign some bums to play the OF.

It was my understanding though that at least 1 of Kirk and Duda were going to be in the OF anyways to start the year.

[wdwyer]

Meh, if I sit here and question every single move the NL East makes and trying to convince myself that the Mets missed out...I'd go crazy. Revere is not the end all answer for the Mets woes. He'd be just another warm body.

Right now it's clear the Mets are not just going to throw away prospects just for the sake of making trades.

[NY_Heartbreak]

Agree.

What Revere has done so far is pretty near to his ceiling. It's hard for me to believe he can consistently be more than +15 runs above average on defense and base running combined. But I think he can sustain about that, and he can be a solid 2.0 WAR player even with a .300 wOBA. If he can get that up to a .320 wOBA, he could even be a 3.0 WAR player.

It's not certain either though, that he can sustain even a .300 wOBA. His .300 wOBA this year was based on a .325 BABIP, and while he has speed and hits a ton of groundballs, he also doesn't hit an unusual number of line drives, and hits very few doubles. So overall his BABIP will probably tend to be not too far above league average. There's little chance here of Ichiro like BABIP.

So if everything goes right, and especially if he improves those walk rates, he can be a slightly above average +3.0 WAR regular for a few years, keeping in mind, his prime is right now, as speed peaks on average at age 24. More likely though, I think he settles in as about a 1.5-2.0 WAR fringe regular.

Great analysis, man.

[acerimusdux]

I am not saying they should have mortgaged the farm for Revere by any means but Worley ain't all that and that's all it took to acquire Revere so it was quite possible if the Mets dangled either Gee or Familia they could've landed him.

They also gave up a pretty good pitching prospect, Trevor May, as well as Worley. Now Trevor May is a guy who was badly over-valued in prospect circles. I never thought he was a good prospect, and was baffled when people had him in the top 100 last year. But that was the consensus, people had him as the Phillies top prospect heading into this season.

[WrightStuff82]

They also gave up a pretty good pitching prospect, Trevor May, as well as Worley. Now Trevor May is a guy who was badly over-valued in prospect circles. I never thought he was a good prospect, and was baffled when people had him in the top 100 last year. But that was the consensus, people had him as the Phillies top prospect heading into this season.

Bull. Trevor May is a loser. Worley is overrated and damaged goods. Phillies cleaned house.

[acerimusdux]

Bull. Trevor May is a loser. Worley is overrated and damaged goods. Phillies cleaned house.

I agree. It's hard for the Mets to make this kind of trade though when our guys lately are getting routinely undervalued.

One of my comments from nearly 2 years ago on the Phillies and Red Sox systems:

http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/sho...y#post17703189

Brown, Singleton, and Cosart seem interesting. I saw Trevor May twice last year, thought he was over-rated, no better than Kyle Allen. Don't like that system as much as the Mets, but it's not too bad.

Boston Red Sox seem to be one of the most over-rated systems recently. Anthony Ranaudo is interesting. After that, Khalish and Iglesias are at best comparable to Nieuwenhuis and Tejada, and not off to good starts. Yamaico Navarro can hit, and can probably play a decent 3B, and might be under-rated a tick, and Oscar Tejada could be good, but after that there seem to be so many guys in that system who have been over-rated. I think it should probably be bottom third overall.

The Red Sox still have some nice depth. But they trade away the guys at the top, and then people just promote the next guys in line and start treating mediocre talents as top 100 guys (I don't mean Bogaerts here, he certainly seems to be the real deal).

Lately people have been doing the same with the Phillies system. The Phillies have traded away a lot of guys, there's really not much left there.

The truth is, Familia was always easily a better prospect than Trevor May, regardless of what the "experts" said. I'm amazed when I see people here wanting to deal Familia for a backup catcher, or use him as a throw in on a trade for a fringe-regular.

[YoungStuna]

I think Met fans want to trade Familia because he's one of our most valuable trade chips and is seen as expendable with Harvey/Wheeler. His stuff is probably as good as either, but his conmand is still and likely will always be a big issue.

[Sick Of It All]

I have become a Familia believer and by no means I would like the Mets to trade him for a fringe or back up player. Obviously his stock is not as high as you would like it to be in order for him to be the key piece in a deal that would net you a better player the way a Harvey or Wheeler are, but I think if he was left in the minors he could improve on that.

I like Revere, but I also thought that what the Phils gave seem more appetizing considering that May has better value than a Familia or Mejia even if he should not.

Had the Mets been able to trade Gee and Mazzoni then I probably would of pulled the trigger.

[WrightStuff82]

Gee > Worley.