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  1. #121
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    Right, Hamilton is a much higher risk for injury than skill deterioration. But Swisher's risk is split between the two factors. At a certain age, playing a lot in the past is an indicator for injury risk. Swisher is past that threshold. He's also had periods of utter futility throughout the last couple seasons.

    I'd expect a Swisher signing to work out a lot like Ibanez. Year 1 might be nice and then it'll get ugly.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by The A Team View Post
    Right, Hamilton is a much higher risk for injury than skill deterioration. But Swisher's risk is split between the two factors. At a certain age, playing a lot in the past is an indicator for injury risk. Swisher is past that threshold. He's also had periods of utter futility throughout the last couple seasons.

    I'd expect a Swisher signing to work out a lot like Ibanez. Year 1 might be nice and then it'll get ugly.
    do you really see Swisher deteriorating like that though, especially in the field? i mean obviously a LF like Ibanez, being that it's the place where your worst OF plays, it's easy to assume his defense would deteriorate. but Swisher being a RF, idk i just don't see the decrease coming that rapidly.

    also Swisher being a switch hitter IMO at least makes him less susceptible to deterioration at the plate due to the fact that he's never facing a specialist, so bat speed isn't as much of an issue as it would be for a dominant side hitter who can't catch up with a same-sided pitcher's fastball or can't read the slider anymore.


    idk it's probably horse **** but it's just my opinion.


    he's also not NEARLY as old as ibanez was when we signed him.

  3. #123
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    Maybe I'm overstating with my expectation of a sharp decline. I've seen a lot of players with that rough profile go from lineup mainstay to out of baseball very quickly.

    Regardless, that is risk is real and needs to be accounted for, even if it's less likely than I expect.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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