Bret Jackson overhauls swing

[ABE32]

If Jackson's our starting CF'er next year, I'll be forced to admit that the FO is deliberately trying to lose.

Are you saying they are trying for the 2014 Rodon Sweepstakes to pair with Mark Appel? I like the idea LOL but I hate losing.

[Rynoplasty]

I don't think Jackson's problem will be as difficult to fix as some do, either. As long as you understand that "fix" means get him back to the approach he's always had prior to last year and accept that he'll still have a lot a swing and miss to his game.

First, his cup of coffee was just that. It's pretty routine for prospects to flounder through their first brief call-up. Rizzo did it. Even Mike Trout didn't set the world on fire. I'm not going to read too much into the astronomical K-rate at the MLB level.

Looking at his AAA numbers in 2011 compared to 2012 says to me he was pressing badly. His BB% dropping the way it did says that much. He sacrificed the approach he'd been successful with in an attempt to do too much. And look at the situation he was in. There was a lot of positive chatter about him in spring training, but he was sent to AAA rather than Chicago to start the season. Then Byrd completely fell apart. Then Byrd got traded and opened up a spot in CF. Then Tony Campana started getting regular CF playing time. Brett had to be watching all that. When you're the top prospect in the system and in AAA and had been considered basically ML-ready in spring training and you see nothing but a gaping black hole blocking your position and you STILL don't get the call, yeah, I could see that cause a fair bit of pressing.

[KyleJRM]

He struck out a *ton* even in his first AAA appearance. I mean, at a level few have ever seen and survived to tell the tale at the MLB level.

[gooner]

I'm going with "for worse."

The judgement isn't based on 140 MLB plate appearances. The fatal contact problems appeared as soon as he faced advanced pitching in the minors.

No. The fatal contact problems started well before he got to advanced pitching. Whatever the hell that means. On the other hand, his walk rates have held, and his power has as well as he started to face "advanced pitching". And while he has always been slow to adjust, he has shown the ability to do so. There are many things in hitting that are not fixable. What is required to make Brett Jackson a productive offensive player is not among these things.

The larger story here is that, I don't really think the new administration and development regime has had enough time with him. I think he is one of the last remaining casualties of the prior development regime. If he had gone pro one year later, we would have seen a very different trajectory with him.

[KyleJRM]

It means that the list of people who have struck out at his level in AAA and become successful MLB hitters is very, very, very slim.

[DavidH]

I find the vitriol around a center fielder who costs next to nothing, and could very well put up a .255/.340/.445 line with average to slightly above average defense next year...odd.

Oh right. He strikes out a lot. I forgot that suddenly strikeouts matter again. (Newsflash: they still don't as much as you think they do.)

They matter in evaluating the development of a prospect and determining their ability to adapt to major league pitching. Jackson struck out at an alarming rate at AAA, not even to speak of his time in the majors.

Obviously, they don't matter much at all once a hitter is proven at the major league level. An out is an out. But they are definitely something you have to look at when you evaluate young players coming up through the system and try to determine their ability to make contact against more advanced pitching.

[KyleJRM]

They matter in evaluating the development of a prospect and determining their ability to adapt to major league pitching. Jackson struck out at an alarming rate at AAA, not even to speak of his time in the majors.

Obviously, they don't matter much at all once a hitter is proven at the major league level. An out is an out. But they are definitely something you have to look at when you evaluate young players coming up through the system and try to determine their ability to make contact against more advanced pitching.

This. Strikeouts do not matter for value purposes at the MLB level. They are, however, extremely predictive, especially for prospects.

[Rynoplasty]

He struck out a *ton* even in his first AAA appearance. I mean, at a level few have ever seen and survived to tell the tale at the MLB level.

He'll always strike out, but he put up a .939 OPS in 2011 compared to .817 in 2012. That's a significant difference within the same level. And the drop in BB% has as much to do with it as the rise in K%.

Few have survived a K-rate like his, but really, how common are players with his skillset who can realistically do enough to compensate for it? Even when it rose to over 40% in the majors, he STILL managed a positive WAR value. Minuscule value, but it's a minor miracle to somehow strike out 40% of the time and not have negative value. So if anyone could carve out a successful career with a 30% rate, it would be someone with his skillset.

[gooner]

They matter in evaluating the development of a prospect and determining their ability to adapt to major league pitching. Jackson struck out at an alarming rate at AAA, not even to speak of his time in the majors.

Obviously, they don't matter much at all once a hitter is proven at the major league level. An out is an out. But they are definitely something you have to look at when you evaluate young players coming up through the system and try to determine their ability to make contact against more advanced pitching.

So does height and weight and ability to walk and mental make-up and desire to work hard and hitting for power and ability to play defense and whether other family members have played professional baseball before...

which arbitrary set of factors should we use tomorrow?

[KyleJRM]

He had a .402 BABIP at AAA in 2011. That's a big part of it.

[KyleJRM]

So does height and weight and ability to walk and mental make-up and desire to work hard and hitting for power and ability to play defense and whether other family members have played professional baseball before...

which arbitrary set of factors should we use tomorrow?

Strikeout rates being predictive of a prospect's ability to move up the ladder are not the voodoo you are implying.

[gooner]

He had a .402 BABIP at AAA in 2011. That's a big part of it.

he has always had a high BABIP. it is most likely a function of the balls he actually ends up putting in play. as he adjusts his swing and he puts more balls in play, his BABIP will go down, but the number of balls he puts in play that wind up as hits will go up.

Strikeout rates being predictive of a prospect's ability to move up the ladder are not the voodoo you are implying.

with no other context, it kinda is.

edit: at this point, I am beginning to think you are being obtuse on purpose. So I'm gonna stop.

[KyleJRM]

"He always had a high BABIP" can't be used to handwave away an extremely high BABIP.

[Rynoplasty]

He had a .402 BABIP at AAA in 2011. That's a big part of it.

His .372 in 2012 wasn't exactly low.

All I'm saying is that "few players succeed with his K-rate" doesn't say all that much about the chance that he could, specifically. If there's a particular set of skills that could do it, it'd be his.

[SenorGato]

Hopefully this gets other teams interested btw. Hes not completely uninteresting but the bar should be higher here. Way higher....