Football Outsiders Playoff Odds Report

[baller101200]

Team	Conf App        Conf Win         SB Win
NE	55.0%	         32.7%	         20.0%		
DEN	45.3%	         25.2%	         15.1%		
HOU	61.6%	         29.1%	         13.5%
SF	38.5%	         21.9%	         11.8%		
SEA	29.1%	         16.2%	          8.8%		
ATL	54.5%	         24.1%            8.1%	
GB	32.2%	         16.9%	          8.0%		
CHI	19.7%	         9.7% 	          4.6%		
NYG	18.7%	         8.8%	          4.0%		
BAL	22.5%            8.4%	          3.5%		
CIN	7.6%	         2.5%             1.1%		
WAS	5.5% 	         1.9%  	          0.7%		
PIT	6.2%	         1.7%      	  0.6%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

[85BearsDefense]

Seattle is way to high, Pitt way to low, Bears should probably move up, Would love to know how they do this.

[Austeezy]

Smart guys

Interesting how the top 3 are AFC teams

[NickGB]

Interesting by their numbers AFC are favorites to win the SB

[NickGB]

Smart guys

Interesting how the top 3 are AFC teams

Practically took the words right out of my mouth lol

[FWBrodie]

Interesting by their numbers AFC are favorites to win the SB

It's because there isn't legit competition for the top few teams.

[Pinstripe power]

It's because there isn't legit competition for the top few teams.

or maybe its becuase its favoring the 3 AFC teams that already clinched a playoff spot, where a number of other teams with lower numbers haven't clinched the playoff spot yet

[baller101200]

Seattle is way to high, Pitt way to low, Bears should probably move up, Would love to know how they do this.

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

This is the explanation for how the probabilities are calculated.

[manbearchef]

I sort of cringed at PIT being last behind the Skins and Bengals. Also, despite their short-comings, Baltimore should be quite a bit higher given their post-season success. Also I can't imagine why the Giants are that low for post-season chances. It's pretty much the one time of the year that they aren't mediocre.

[iam brett favre]

How are the Steelers below the Redskins and Seahawks?

[pacofunk64]

So they're saying we got a chance...hooo raaa!!!

.2% & .1% nonetheless, lol.

[John Walls Era]

So I should be getting 9 to 1 for SF to win and 5 to 1 if Pats win.

[wissportsfan]

I can't really deny these numbers. I think they got it right. Took me a while to figure out why Seattle was up there but if they get on a run I could see them just roll into the SB.

[ombada]

The Colts arent on the list??

some of those teams wont even make the playoffs.

[Labgrownmangoat]

I can't really deny these numbers. I think they got it right. Took me a while to figure out why Seattle was up there but if they get on a run I could see them just roll into the SB.

Three home games out of four and weaker opponents are huge factors. The Football Outsiders guys are getting pretty decent at predicting these things as they have tweaked their stats over the years.