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  1. #1
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    Football Outsiders Playoff Odds Report

    Code:
    Team	Conf App        Conf Win         SB Win
    NE	55.0%	         32.7%	         20.0%		
    DEN	45.3%	         25.2%	         15.1%		
    HOU	61.6%	         29.1%	         13.5%
    SF	38.5%	         21.9%	         11.8%		
    SEA	29.1%	         16.2%	          8.8%		
    ATL	54.5%	         24.1%            8.1%	
    GB	32.2%	         16.9%	          8.0%		
    CHI	19.7%	         9.7% 	          4.6%		
    NYG	18.7%	         8.8%	          4.0%		
    BAL	22.5%            8.4%	          3.5%		
    CIN	7.6%	         2.5%             1.1%		
    WAS	5.5% 	         1.9%  	          0.7%		
    PIT	6.2%	         1.7%      	  0.6%
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

    Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick walk into a bar... To watch Russell Wilson win the Super Bowl.

  2. #2
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    Seattle is way to high, Pitt way to low, Bears should probably move up, Would love to know how they do this.


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  3. #3
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    Smart guys

    Interesting how the top 3 are AFC teams

  4. #4
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    Interesting by their numbers AFC are favorites to win the SB

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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austeezy View Post
    Smart guys

    Interesting how the top 3 are AFC teams
    Practically took the words right out of my mouth lol

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  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by NickGB View Post
    Interesting by their numbers AFC are favorites to win the SB
    It's because there isn't legit competition for the top few teams.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by FWBrodie View Post
    It's because there isn't legit competition for the top few teams.
    or maybe its becuase its favoring the 3 AFC teams that already clinched a playoff spot, where a number of other teams with lower numbers haven't clinched the playoff spot yet
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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by 85BearsDefense View Post
    Seattle is way to high, Pitt way to low, Bears should probably move up, Would love to know how they do this.
    The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
    This is the explanation for how the probabilities are calculated.

    Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Colin Kaepernick walk into a bar... To watch Russell Wilson win the Super Bowl.

  9. #9
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    I sort of cringed at PIT being last behind the Skins and Bengals. Also, despite their short-comings, Baltimore should be quite a bit higher given their post-season success. Also I can't imagine why the Giants are that low for post-season chances. It's pretty much the one time of the year that they aren't mediocre.

  10. #10
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    How are the Steelers below the Redskins and Seahawks?

    Our QB > Yours

  11. #11
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    So they're saying we got a chance...hooo raaa!!!

    .2% & .1% nonetheless, lol.

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  12. #12
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    So I should be getting 9 to 1 for SF to win and 5 to 1 if Pats win.

  13. #13
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    I can't really deny these numbers. I think they got it right. Took me a while to figure out why Seattle was up there but if they get on a run I could see them just roll into the SB.

  14. #14
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    The Colts arent on the list??

    some of those teams wont even make the playoffs.


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  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by wissportsfan View Post
    I can't really deny these numbers. I think they got it right. Took me a while to figure out why Seattle was up there but if they get on a run I could see them just roll into the SB.
    Three home games out of four and weaker opponents are huge factors. The Football Outsiders guys are getting pretty decent at predicting these things as they have tweaked their stats over the years.
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