Zack Greinke and Dodgers agree to 6-year, $147M deal

[SFrush90]

I love the "Ethier is a platoon hitter" argument

Because that means his career .311/.387/.526 vs RHP is irrelevant. He's a platoon hitter.

And the Hanley thing, Hanley's level of play isn't even close to comparable to Crawford's. Crawford has been a negative win player, Hanley is a 3 win SS on his worst day.

Well, typically, platoon hitters hit only a specific pitcher well (righty or lefty) and suck against the opposite arm, which Ethier does. He's a glorified platoon hitter.

[1908_Cubs]

I love the "Ethier is a platoon hitter" argument

Because that means his career .311/.387/.526 vs RHP is irrelevant. He's a platoon hitter.

And the Hanley thing, Hanley's level of play isn't even close to comparable to Crawford's. Crawford has been a negative win player, Hanley is a 3 win SS on his worst day.

He has a .300 point OPS split between RHP and LHP. He's fresh off of a season with 200 AB's and a .606 OPS against LHP. He had a .563 OPS against LHP in 2011.

That's the clear definition of a platoon hitter.

[ccugrad1]

Can I ask a dumb question: What is so special about Zach Greinke? Has never won more than 16 games; has a career ERA approaching 4.00; not a real big strikeout guy. Nowhere near worth a Sabathia like contract and probably not worth any more than CJ Wilson or what Anibal Sanchez will get.

[PraiseJesus]

And if he signed with LA, so-so would become elite. I've heard the same stuff from other dodger fans. When Greinke was a favorite for LA, they rubbed it in people's faces. Now, they are saying they never really wanted him because of anxiety issues.

At the end of the day, he isn't worth anywhere near the money that's being offered.

I don't know how any knowledgeable fan could disagree with that

[VRP723]

He has a .300 point OPS split between RHP and LHP. He's fresh off of a season with 200 AB's and a .606 OPS against LHP. He had a .563 OPS against LHP in 2011.

That's the clear definition of a platoon hitter.

No ****. But when using that in attempt to discredit him, people act as if it's the end all, be all. It's not.

[doyerfan59]

Yeah people focus 100% of the attention on Ethier's numbers vs. lefties, and tend to forget he is a top MLB hitter vs. Righties, which is really valuable.

[Greedy22]

Can I ask a dumb question: What is so special about Zach Greinke? Has never won more than 16 games; has a career ERA approaching 4.00; not a real big strikeout guy. Nowhere near worth a Sabathia like contract and probably not worth any more than CJ Wilson or what Anibal Sanchez will get.

Wouldn't say anything special, but he's the best and most high profile pitcher on the FA market right now. Also wins are a terrible thing to measure a pitcher on, look at the season Clayton Kershaw had this year, the season Tim Lincecum had in 2011, and King Felix 2010 Cy Young season where he only had 13 wins. I agree on the Sabathia ordeal, but he's better than the other 2.

[mtf]

Can I ask a dumb question: What is so special about Zach Greinke? Has never won more than 16 games; has a career ERA approaching 4.00; not a real big strikeout guy. Nowhere near worth a Sabathia like contract and probably not worth any more than CJ Wilson or what Anibal Sanchez will get.

Well, you can start by ignoring wins since that's a team statistic and not a valuable means of evaluating an individual. His ERA is not approaching 4.00, last year he pitched to a 3.48 ERA lowering his career ERA to 3.77. More importantly, his FIP/xFIP have been extremely good over the past 5 seasons.

	FIP	xFIP
2008	3.56	3.71
2009	2.33	3.09
2010	3.34	3.60
2011	2.98	2.56
2012	3.10	3.22

He, and his agent, are aiming a bit high on this contract but that's mostly because of supply and demand. Right now, the free agent pool and trade market for top tier starting pitchers is pretty shallow and he can cash in.

[Greedy22]

Well, you can start by ignoring wins since that's a team statistic and not a valuable means of evaluating an individual. His ERA is not approaching 4.00, last year he pitched to a 3.48 ERA lowering his career ERA to 3.77. More importantly, his FIP/xFIP have been extremely good over the past 5 seasons.

	FIP	xFIP
2008	3.56	3.71
2009	2.33	3.09
2010	3.34	3.60
2011	2.98	2.56
2012	3.10	3.22

He, and his agent, are aiming a bit high on this contract but that's mostly because of supply and demand. Right now, the free agent pool and trade market for top tier starting pitchers is pretty shallow and he can cash in.

[Jeffy25]

Well, you can start by ignoring wins since that's a team statistic and not a valuable means of evaluating an individual. His ERA is not approaching 4.00, last year he pitched to a 3.48 ERA lowering his career ERA to 3.77. More importantly, his FIP/xFIP have been extremely good over the past 5 seasons.

	FIP	xFIP
2008	3.56	3.71
2009	2.33	3.09
2010	3.34	3.60
2011	2.98	2.56
2012	3.10	3.22

He, and his agent, are aiming a bit high on this contract but that's mostly because of supply and demand. Right now, the free agent pool and trade market for top tier starting pitchers is pretty shallow and he can cash in.

Said basically everything I was going to say.

[Jeffy25]

Yeah people focus 100% of the attention on Ethier's numbers vs. lefties, and tend to forget he is a top MLB hitter vs. Righties, which is really valuable.

Yes.

But he is paid, and treated like he should be this full time player, perennial all-star that every team should be falling over themselves to land.

He has to be limited against lefties, and that digs into his value.

If he only faced righties, and had a platoon partner to face lefties for him. His value would sky rocket. But he keeps getting used as an every day player, and he shouldn't be facing lefties.

That's 30% of the pitchers in baseball....and he shouldn't face them.

He is a platoon hitter, and he is solid defensively. He does get to face 70% of the pitchers in baseball. But you have to carry someone on your roster to take those PA's vs lefties against him.

He is Paul Konerko when he faces righties, and he is Clint Barnes when he faces lefties, which is 30% of the time.

[PraiseJesus]

Well, you can start by ignoring wins since that's a team statistic and not a valuable means of evaluating an individual. His ERA is not approaching 4.00, last year he pitched to a 3.48 ERA lowering his career ERA to 3.77. More importantly, his FIP/xFIP have been extremely good over the past 5 seasons.

	FIP	xFIP
2008	3.56	3.71
2009	2.33	3.09
2010	3.34	3.60
2011	2.98	2.56
2012	3.10	3.22

He, and his agent, are aiming a bit high on this contract but that's mostly because of supply and demand. Right now, the free agent pool and trade market for top tier starting pitchers is pretty shallow and he can cash in.

hahah

Some people have him getting a bigger contract than CC sabathia!

The market is thin - thats too bad.

Hopefully someone besides the Dodgers overpays for this tool

[d79cheese]

Well, you can start by ignoring wins since that's a team statistic and not a valuable means of evaluating an individual. His ERA is not approaching 4.00, last year he pitched to a 3.48 ERA lowering his career ERA to 3.77. More importantly, his FIP/xFIP have been extremely good over the past 5 seasons.

	FIP	xFIP
2008	3.56	3.71
2009	2.33	3.09
2010	3.34	3.60
2011	2.98	2.56
2012	3.10	3.22

He, and his agent, are aiming a bit high on this contract but that's mostly because of supply and demand. Right now, the free agent pool and trade market for top tier starting pitchers is pretty shallow and he can cash in.

Yeah, the wins argument against him is stupid. But, his "un ace" like career ERA can def. be used to justify he has not pitched nearly as well as his FIP/xFIP would indicate. And pointing out his career ERA is now 3.77 isn't necessarily a good thing considering he had a season with an ERA of 2.16 and ERA+ of 205 (both of which are basically impossible for him to repeat). A 3 year trend of pitching underwhelmingly below his FIP and xFIP numbers is not a good trend. You can only play the "unlucky" card for so long. When runners get on base he usually allows them to score. Again, it can be considered unlucky but the sample size is pretty stong the last 3 seasons. You're absolutely correct, he is cashing in on an extremley weak FA class and lack of top arms available in the trade market. He should donate the extra 50-60 million he's gonna earn to the Giants and Phillies for locking up Cain and Hamels. Because he'd be laughed at if he tried commanding these figures with both of those pitchers on the market

[VRP723]

I think it's fair to say Greinke's numbers could easily look a lot like Cain's if he played his whole career in San Fran.

[mtf]

Yeah, the wins argument against him is stupid. But, his "un ace" like career ERA can def. be used to justify he has not pitched nearly as well as his FIP/xFIP would indicate. And pointing out his career ERA is now 3.77 isn't necessarily a good thing considering he had a season with an ERA of 2.16 and ERA+ of 205 (both of which are basically impossible for him to repeat). A 3 year trend of pitching underwhelmingly below his FIP and xFIP numbers is not a good trend. You can only play the "unlucky" card for so long. When runners get on base he usually allows them to score. Again, it can be considered unlucky but the sample size is pretty stong the last 3 seasons.

I only mentioned Greinke's ERA because the poster I was replying to said something to the effect of "...and his ERA is approaching 4" which is inaccurate. He had an ERA last season under his career ERA, so it was not approaching 4, it was doing the opposite.

You're absolutely correct, he is cashing in on an extremley weak FA class and lack of top arms available in the trade market. He should donate the extra 50-60 million he's gonna earn to the Giants and Phillies for locking up Cain and Hamels. Because he'd be laughed at if he tried commanding these figures with both of those pitchers on the market

Just because he and his agent are setting the asking price high doesn't mean someone is going to pay it. The Dodgers, his most likely suitor, have already pulled out of the Greinke sweepstakes. He's entitled to ask for whatever he wants, but I personally believe it's unlikely he gets it. We can all get upset at how much one individual employer pays an individual employee after they agree to a contract.