No doubt our core has a good or very good upside. But what are the "Los Vegas" odds?
13 guys?
In 2013, how many will be fairly close either way to their career average? 4 or 5?
Wow many will have career years? 1 or 2? How many will be awful or injured 1 or 2?
How many will have a best or worst 3 career season this year? 2 or 3?
Probability says it will be near the mean. If this team was loaded up with best or near best players like say 2007 (LF, DH, SP, SP, CL, 2B) you could argue that this group is going to be special based on facts in evidence. Outside of DH and 2B I do not see a top 3 player at any other position - maybe Ellsbury in a contract year, and maybe WMB because AROD is again out of the running. How does this team escape being near average.
How does it escape Buchholz not pitching 190 IP again? How about Ortiz's decline? Bailey's what? Injuries. Many of our hitters are very weak against the wrong sort of pitcher - I.E. we have a lot of platoon guys. With the heavy usage of RP in innings 7-9 how does that not make us very vulnerable offensively?
Blind faith and optimism I believe are all that can explain such an attitude at this time.
Last edited by bagwell368; 12-04-2012 at 02:20 PM.
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Guess who? The future X-Presdent...