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  1. #1
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    Average WAR season for a Hall of Famer

    We all know that getting into the Hall of Fame is not based on statistical merits alone. However, if it was, what WAR would you guys like to see a player average per season over his career, (at least 10 years) to get into the Hall?

    I would like to see something around 4.5.
    Last edited by thawv; 03-07-2013 at 01:33 PM.

  2. #2
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    I would say 5 AVERAGE with a handful of 6-7.5 seasons. A WAR in the low to mid 50's isn't really a great HOF

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    Quote Originally Posted by sexicano31 View Post
    I would say 5 AVERAGE with a handful of 6-7.5 seasons. A WAR in the low to mid 50's isn't really a great HOF
    I agree! But let's say a guy only plays 10 years. Considering that 4-5 is an all star caliber player, do you think that would be enough?

    I hate to see guys get in based on longevity. A guy that plays 20 years and has a 70 WAR is really just a good player. Not so much a HOF'er.

    I think that an average year of 5 for a 10 year guy should get him in.

  4. #4
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    There are actually some really good forumulas on this topic.

    the JAFFE score is the total of the players best 7 WAR seasons for example, showing their peak value.


    The average rWAR player has a 65.0 rWAR and played an average of 18 seasons.

    But you can kick out two seasons for each player for the beginning and end of their career where their value was little to nothing. That would give you a 4 rWAR per season.

    But to take this a little further. Some hall of famers were not good baseball players but are in because of being a pioneer or executive but they did produce offensively or as a pitcher at some point.

    But let's concede that since I don't feel like looking it up. And instead lets look at rWAR per 600 PA.

    The average hall of famer produced 65.0 rWAR in 8996 PA

    138.4 PA per rWAR


    So 4.34 rWAR per 600 PA.


    So I'd say anywhere between 4-5 rWAR is your average season for a hall of famer. Which is much more impressive than you might think, considering players have declines where they are fairly worthless.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    There are actually some really good forumulas on this topic.

    the JAFFE score is the total of the players best 7 WAR seasons for example, showing their peak value.


    The average rWAR player has a 65.0 rWAR and played an average of 18 seasons.

    But you can kick out two seasons for each player for the beginning and end of their career where their value was little to nothing. That would give you a 4 rWAR per season.

    But to take this a little further. Some hall of famers were not good baseball players but are in because of being a pioneer or executive but they did produce offensively or as a pitcher at some point.

    But let's concede that since I don't feel like looking it up. And instead lets look at rWAR per 600 PA.

    The average hall of famer produced 65.0 rWAR in 8996 PA

    138.4 PA per rWAR


    So 4.34 rWAR per 600 PA.


    So I'd say anywhere between 4-5 rWAR is your average season for a hall of famer. Which is much more impressive than you might think, considering players have declines where they are fairly worthless.
    Great info!

    Yes........I was not factoring in integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played. I was just wondering what you guys thought if it was "numbers only." I figured that 4.5 could be good enough. But that might even be too low.

    Myself, I'd like the voters to be a lot more strict with who they think belongs in. These guys should be "superstars," not just "all stars."

    I'm now starting to think that 5 should be the minimum average if it's based on stats alone.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    I agree! But let's say a guy only plays 10 years. Considering that 4-5 is an all star caliber player, do you think that would be enough?

    I hate to see guys get in based on longevity. A guy that plays 20 years and has a 70 WAR is really just a good player. Not so much a HOF'er.

    I think that an average year of 5 for a 10 year guy should get him in.
    I would like to agree with you on that average of 5 for 10 years because that would mean Chase Utley is getting in. However, I dont think he would get voted in for a few reasons.

    But yes, over a 10-12 year career and average 5 WAR then thats a HOF to me

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Great info!

    Yes........I was not factoring in integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played. I was just wondering what you guys thought if it was "numbers only." I figured that 4.5 could be good enough. But that might even be too low.

    Myself, I'd like the voters to be a lot more strict with who they think belongs in. These guys should be "superstars," not just "all stars."

    I'm now starting to think that 5 should be the minimum average if it's based on stats alone.
    Well lets say this guy was never considered a super star, but made the All-star team 10/10 years he was in the league? I would like to see the numbers, but I would think that the average all star is about a 3-5 win player. Im not sure I would call a 5 win player a superstar exactly, but I assume thats why you said 5 minimum

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Great info!

    Yes........I was not factoring in integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played. I was just wondering what you guys thought if it was "numbers only." I figured that 4.5 could be good enough. But that might even be too low.

    Myself, I'd like the voters to be a lot more strict with who they think belongs in. These guys should be "superstars," not just "all stars."

    I'm now starting to think that 5 should be the minimum average if it's based on stats alone.
    The only issue with average per season is that many players will play several years past their prime or well before their prime. So they will have a lot of seasons that have no value for them lowering their average if they had just quit or gotten called up later.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    The only issue with average per season is that many players will play several years past their prime or well before their prime. So they will have a lot of seasons that have no value for them lowering their average if they had just quit or gotten called up later.
    Agreed!

    Also, they may have 2-3 years of 7-8 WAR that would inflate their average.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by sexicano31 View Post
    Well lets say this guy was never considered a super star, but made the All-star team 10/10 years he was in the league? I would like to see the numbers, but I would think that the average all star is about a 3-5 win player. Im not sure I would call a 5 win player a superstar exactly, but I assume thats why you said 5 minimum
    Is a 10 year, 10 time all star a HOF'er? You're right. We'd have to see the numbers.

    But being an all star doesn't have much value in baseball. First, every team must have a representative. That's a rubbish rule. Second, the fans decide, so it's basically a popularity contest.

    Plenty of times, a lesser of a player is in the game, while a superior player to the "all star" is at home.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by thawv View Post
    Is a 10 year, 10 time all star a HOF'er? You're right. We'd have to see the numbers.

    But being an all star doesn't have much value in baseball. First, every team must have a representative. That's a rubbish rule. Second, the fans decide, so it's basically a popularity contest.

    Plenty of times, a lesser of a player is in the game, while a superior player to the "all star" is at home.
    That is very true, however if they are voted in or picked by their peers they usually deserve it.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by sexicano31 View Post
    I would say 5 AVERAGE with a handful of 6-7.5 seasons. A WAR in the low to mid 50's isn't really a great HOF
    Not true for catchers at all.

    Not many catchers play over 120 games/yr, which cuts down WAR. Lots of injuries. And defensive metrics at C - in UZR are pathetic, BR a bit better.

    I think you have to look at the dominant position. The #19 SS is Fregosi with 45 rWAR. What about a 1B - a 55 rWAR player is Harmon Killebrew.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 03-08-2013 at 09:52 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  13. #13
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    rWAR/600 PA or fWAR/600 PA and PA are the best indicators for HOF.

    Derek Jeter
    3.50 rWAR/600 PA | 11895 PA (HOF numbers)

    Alex Rodriguez
    5.99 rWAR/600 PA | 11163 PA (HOF numbers)

    Mike Trout
    8.76 rWAR/600 PA | 774 PA (HOF projection)
    through 09/03/2014...

    2014 Giancarlo Stanton

    138/138 G
    .295/86/36/102/10 | .410 wOBA | 163 wRC+ | 5.64 WPA | 5.9 fWAR | 6.4 rWAR

    He's comin' for that title, Mike Trout

    134/138 G
    .285/92/31/98/13 | .396 wOBA | 161 wRC+ | 5.51 WPA | 6.3 fWAR | 6.6 rWAR

  14. #14
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    Bryce Harper
    5.02 rWAR/600 PA | 597 PA

    Jason Heyward
    4.92 rWAR/600 PA | 1730 PA

    Evan Longoria
    6.27 rWAR/600 PA | 2726 PA

    Chase Utley
    6.22 rWAR/600 PA | 5140 PA
    through 09/03/2014...

    2014 Giancarlo Stanton

    138/138 G
    .295/86/36/102/10 | .410 wOBA | 163 wRC+ | 5.64 WPA | 5.9 fWAR | 6.4 rWAR

    He's comin' for that title, Mike Trout

    134/138 G
    .285/92/31/98/13 | .396 wOBA | 161 wRC+ | 5.51 WPA | 6.3 fWAR | 6.6 rWAR

  15. #15
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    Kind of an off-topic question here but...

    I will admit I'm not a huge sabermetrics guy, so although I understand the WAR stat , I never really looked to deep into how it is calculated

    So after doing some research, I found that there is no specific formula to calculate it...for example, Baseball Prospectuc, Fangraphs, and Baseball reference all use different formulas

    I guess my question is , is this true? And if so how is this regarded as such a fool proof stat that clearly determines player's value if the same evaluation is not applied universally?

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