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  1. #61
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    Don't get me wrong I know that a perfect throw in stride helps your WR get YAC, but as soon as he makes one defender miss or utilizes a block it is no longer the QB's great pass that did anything.

  2. #62
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    SF, how many passes like last week's TY Hilton 70 yarder has RGIII thrown???? I see a whole bunch dink's and dunk's that are taken to the house by him. They still count as 6 points though but it is skewed reasoning at best for YPA?
    If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthollabak View Post
    Just confirmed your hunch with some math.

    RG3 has 3200 passing yards with 393 attempts

    3200/393=8.14, which is listed as RG3's YPA
    Thank you very much. So it factors every type of throw and how much total yardage the QB gets. What's the stat for finding out how far each attempt goes?

    The 2 things i want to know: is there a way to find out the % of screen passes per pass thrown? Also what's the stat that shows how far each ball is thrown? I remember reading how Luck was 3rd in that category, but I can't remember where i saw that.
    So Anna, what do you think about the notion that Russell Wilson is better than Andrew Luck?

    <3
    "[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck
    "Luck has the most diverse skill set of any NFL quarterback" - Ron Jaworski on Andrew Luck being a top 5 QB

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfgiants5518 View Post
    Thank you very much. So it factors every type of throw and how much total yardage the QB gets. What's the stat for finding out how far each attempt goes?
    Yards per completion maybe? If not at the very least it would be some advanced stat that ESPN or any other main stream site doesn't have listed I assume.

    I don't know any good advanced stat sites...I've looked and usually end up confusing myself on mediocre websites trying to look at advanced stats.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthollabak View Post
    Yards per completion maybe? If not at the very least it would be some advanced stat that ESPN or any other main stream site doesn't have listed I assume.

    I don't know any good advanced stat sites...I've looked and usually end up confusing myself on mediocre websites trying to look at advanced stats.
    I found it the stat: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php

    It's %Deep (% pass attempts > 15 yards). So RG3 is 27th in the league, Luck is 3rd. Wouldn't that confirm that luck was asked to do a lot more?
    So Anna, what do you think about the notion that Russell Wilson is better than Andrew Luck?

    <3
    "[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck
    "Luck has the most diverse skill set of any NFL quarterback" - Ron Jaworski on Andrew Luck being a top 5 QB

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfgiants5518 View Post
    I found it the stat: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php

    It's %Deep (% pass attempts > 15 yards). So RG3 is 27th in the league, Luck is 3rd. Wouldn't that confirm that luck was asked to do a lot more?
    Nice Bro!!!!!!!!!!!! Bringing out the Advanced Stats!!!!!!!!! Yeeeeeeeeaaaahhhh! Like I said earlier, how many 70 plus td passes has RGIII thrown like AL did last week????
    If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyld1 View Post
    Nice Bro!!!!!!!!!!!! Bringing out the Advanced Stats!!!!!!!!! Yeeeeeeeeaaaahhhh! Like I said earlier, how many 70 plus td passes has RGIII thrown like AL did last week????
    I don't know. Is there a stat for that LOL?
    So Anna, what do you think about the notion that Russell Wilson is better than Andrew Luck?

    <3
    "[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck
    "Luck has the most diverse skill set of any NFL quarterback" - Ron Jaworski on Andrew Luck being a top 5 QB

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfgiants5518 View Post
    I found it the stat: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php

    It's %Deep (% pass attempts > 15 yards). So RG3 is 27th in the league, Luck is 3rd. Wouldn't that confirm that luck was asked to do a lot more?
    At the very least it confirms that he took many more high risk or low completion rate passes. I would also think that Luck attempting 627 and RG3 only 394 would strengthen that case too.

    I also looked at the win percent added...no clue how they factor that but it has Luck at 4th in the league...we will ignore the fact that Romo is 5th on the WPA right above Peyton though
    Last edited by matthollabak; 01-03-2013 at 04:12 PM.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfgiants5518 View Post
    I don't know. Is there a stat for that LOL?
    I am unsure....but the human eye test can prove it
    If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthollabak View Post
    At the very least it confirms that he took many more high risk or low completion rate passes. I would also think that Luck attempting 627 and griffin only 394 would strengthen that case too.

    I also looked at the win percent added...no clue how they factor that but it has Luck at 4th in the league...we will ignore the fact that Romo is 5th on the WPA right above Peyton though
    Luck had the 3rd worst YAC% in regards to his air yards.... If i'm interpreting this right: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

    38% of his total yards came on YAC while RG3 is 48%.
    So Anna, what do you think about the notion that Russell Wilson is better than Andrew Luck?

    <3
    "[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck
    "Luck has the most diverse skill set of any NFL quarterback" - Ron Jaworski on Andrew Luck being a top 5 QB

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthollabak View Post
    At the very least it confirms that he took many more high risk or low completion rate passes. I would also think that Luck attempting 627 and RG3 only 394 would strengthen that case too.

    I also looked at the win percent added...no clue how they factor that but it has Luck at 4th in the league...we will ignore the fact that Romo is 5th on the WPA right above Peyton though
    I’ve begun using some new stats here lately, and I want to take the opportunity to explain them clearly. Readership has been increasing rapidly too, and some readers aren't as familiar with the terms we use around here. This post will serve as a reference each time I use the new stats in the future.

    Although it’s been used in baseball sabermetrics for several years now, Win Probability Added (WPA) is a new, or at least rediscovered, concept for football stats. It measures each play in terms of how much it increased or decreased a team’s chances of winning the game.

    WPA starts with a Win Probability (WP) model of the game of football. Every situation in a game gives each opponent a particular chance of winning, and a WP model estimates those chances. The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time--in other words a 0.36 WP.

    On that 2nd down and 5, let’s say there is a 30-yard pass, setting up a 1st down and 10 on the opponent’s 45. Now that team has gone from a 0.36 to a 0.39 WP. The WPA for that play would be +0.03.

    If instead the quarterback throws an interception returned back to the line of scrimmage, the opponent now has the ball at the 25, giving the trailing team a 0.28 WP. The WPA for the interception would be -0.08.

    WPA is very sensitive to the context of the game. That same interception that cost -0.08 when a team was down by 7 points in the 2nd quarter would cost much more if it the offense was leading by a point late in the 4th quarter. Putting your opponent in immediate field goal range would be nearly fatal.

    Stats are tools, and each tool has its own purpose. WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing.

    WPA has a number of applications. For starters, we can tell which plays were truly critical in each game. From a fan’s perspective, we can call a play the ‘play of the week’ or the ‘play of the year.’ And although we still can't separate an individual player's performance from that of his teammates', we add up the total WPA for plays in which individual players took part. This can help us see who really made the difference when it matters most. It can help tell us who is, or at least appears to be, “clutch.” It can also help inform us who really deserves the player of the week award, the selection to the Pro Bowl, or even induction into the Hall of Fame.

    As interesting as that might be to us as fans, WPA might be even more useful to coaches and strategists. We can measure whether a kicker’s high field goal accuracy was worth a trade-off in short kickoffs. And for the first time, we can measure the effectiveness of clock management strategies—is it better to run three times and punt, or pass and go for the first down to end the game?

    Even better, WPA can measure the risk-reward balance of a given situation. For example, when is it best to take a sack, and when is it best to take your chances throwing into traffic? Or for defenses, when is it best to roll the dice on a big blitz and risk a long completion due to a big hole in the secondary? We can measure which interceptions were the most costly, and which quarterback tends to throw the costliest ones. WPA may actually be able to measure decision-making ability on the field and on the sideline.

    WPA is not ‘the one stat to rule them all,’ and it does have its disadvantages. It can certainly be improved in several respects, and I’m already working on several ideas. As time goes on, we’ll find even more new and interesting applications for it, and this is only the beginning. More than any other sport, football is about strategy, risk, and reward, and WPA is well suited to capturing much of what makes football so compelling.
    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...explained.html
    So Anna, what do you think about the notion that Russell Wilson is better than Andrew Luck?

    <3
    "[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck
    "Luck has the most diverse skill set of any NFL quarterback" - Ron Jaworski on Andrew Luck being a top 5 QB

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by sfgiants5518 View Post
    Luck had the 3rd worst YAC% in regards to his air yards.... If i'm interpreting this right: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/airYardsStats.php

    38% of his total yards came on YAC while RG3 is 48%.
    Air yards is a big difference too, I guess that is just backwards looking at the YAC% but that is the stat we were originally talking about with the YAC taken out. Luck has 2572 RG3 1618...that means about half of RG3's 3200 passing yards were YAC.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by matthollabak View Post
    Air yards is a big difference too, I guess that is just backwards looking at the YAC% but that is the stat we were originally talking about with the YAC taken out. Luck has 2572 RG3 1618...that means about half of RG3's 3200 passing yards were YAC.
    Yep, and my Human Eye Test saw that too
    If winning isn't everything, why do they keep score?

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyld1 View Post
    Yep, and my Human Eye Test saw that too
    It's fun when math and science confirm what we have seen all season

  15. #75
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    I'll take our guy.. just saying.
    "Only Losers Blame Refs" - Seth Davis


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