Luck also has ran for 3-4 td's hasn't he? some of the int's were also due to mistakes by the WR's, I know some were his bad all the way. I like RG3 and think he's an incredible talent but luck has done some amazing things on a very inexperienced team. I think it may be more clear after the smoke settles and we see what teams make the playoffs and what the teams win/loss totals are.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2...ds-with-colts/Chase Stuart writes about the historical and statistical side of football at his site, FootballPerspective.com
It’s not supposed to be this easy.
Sure, Steve Young and Aaron Rodgers followed Joe Montana and Brett Favre and excelled, but the fact that those examples are so memorable shows that they are the exception to the rule.
You’re not supposed to be able to replace a Hall of Fame quarterback with another star. In Indianapolis, the Colts got a taste of what life is often like for a team in the first year after a franchise quarterback’s exit: Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Kerry Collins earned every bit of their combined 2-14 record in 2011.
But after the Colts bottomed out, Indianapolis’s fortunes changed dramatically. With the first pick in the 2012 draft, the team selected Stanford’s Andrew Luck, and the Colts appear set to be an annual contender for the next decade. Again.
Luck ranks fourth in passing yards this season, and he has shouldered the load for a Colts team that is below average in rushing, stopping the run and stopping the pass. Luck ranks “only” 19th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt and 14th in net yards per attempt, unimpressive numbers only outside of the context of a rookie quarterback playing for what was the worst team in the N.F.L. a year ago.
Luck passes the eye test and at least one advanced metric (he ranks 6th in ESPN’s Total QBR), but part of what’s impressive about him is that even when he isn’t playing well, he remains capable of carrying his team to victory. Luck struggled for much of the game against Detroit on Sunday but still managed to pull out a most improbable victory.
In the first 56 minutes of the game, Luck was 17 for 39 for 279 yards with 3 interceptions. His team trailed the Lions, 33-21, with under three minutes remaining. At that point, Advanced NFL Stats calculated Indianapolis’s odds of winning at 2 percent.
But Luck led them on two scoring drives, and the Colts became just the seventh team to win a game despite trailing by 12 or more points with so little time remaining since 2000.
Two of the other instances involved Peyton Manning with the Colts. In 2003, Manning led the Colts on a marvelous comeback against the Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football.” Six years later, Indianapolis trailed New England, 34-21, with 2 minutes 30 seconds remaining. A Colts touchdown was followed by three Patriots plays that gained 8 yards, setting up Bill Belichick’s infamous 4th-and-2 decision.
This year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, Andrew Luck, has lifted the Colts, who went 2-14 last season without the injured Peyton Manning, center.Paul Spin/Associated Press This year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, Andrew Luck, has lifted the Colts, who went 2-14 last season without the injured Peyton Manning, center.
It will be a long time before Luck could be considered anywhere near Manning’s class in terms of body of work, but his performance against the Lions is now alongside many of Manning’s memories in the annals of great Colts moments. Luck’s game-winning touchdown to Donnie Avery was just the 13th game-winning touchdown pass in the final seconds of a game since 2000.
Statistically, Andrew Luck may not be having the best year, but he has played an enormous part in the Colts’ magical run. At 8-4, the Colts are almost certainly going to make the playoffs; if they do, they will join the 2008 Miami Dolphins and 1982 Patriots on the list of N.F.L. teams to make the playoffs a year after going 2-14 or worse.
Luck will also set a couple of rookie records. With the game-winning drive he led against the Lions, he tied Ben Roethlisberger and Vince Young for the most fourth-quarter game-winning drives (five) by a rookie quarterback. By defeating Detroit and earning his eighth win, he broke a tie with Sam Bradford and now has the most wins among rookie quarterbacks selected first over all since 1950. Luck’s next victory will give him nine wins this season, tying him with Chris Chandler for the franchise record for wins by a rookie quarterback.
^ How I feel about the Colts right about now ^"[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck
http://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/12/...alk-luck-v-rg3As far as real debate topics go, if you follow me or others like me on Twitter, you'll see that there is a pretty strong movement to hype Redskins rookie Robert Griffin III as rookie of the year. Obviously, I'm biased.I think it's Luck, by a mile.
Still, despite my bias, everyone I talk to in the league tells me Andrew Luck is better and has accomplished more than Griffin. He's also doing so with less around him. Hell, NFL.com's Adam Schein thinks Luck is the league MVP.
Also, unlike Griffin, Luck has managed his success in a pro-style offense that is completely different from the one he ran at Stanford.
Understand, I like Griffin and I think he's a very impressive rookie. However, he plays in the Washington DC market, and DC fans are so irritating they make my brain hurt. However, in the spirit of debate, let's discuss why Luck is better, and more deserved of the RotY award over Griffin.
The bolded stood out to me.
^ How I feel about the Colts right about now ^"[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck
Phil Wilson, Phil Richards, and Mike Chappell talked about Luck, RG3 and their thoughts on offensive ROY... Definitely worth the read:
http://www.indystar.com/article/2012...lis%20Sports|sWith impressive showings by rookie quarterbacks this season, we asked our Colts beat writers to weigh in on the chances of the Colts' Andrew Luck, Washington's Robert Griffin III and Seattle's Russell Wilson winning the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Who should win the rookie award, and why?
Phillip B. Wilson: No doubt, the Colts' Andrew Luck. No player, rookie or not, has meant more to a team than Luck, who has shouldered so much of the responsibility for his team's success. An overhauled 2-14 team has persevered in close games in large part because Luck has had five game-winning drives in regulation or overtime. The Colts' 7-1 record in one-possession games speaks volumes about how their rookie passer handles pressure. He's on pace to shatter NFL rookie records for pass attempts, completions and yards. He's already won more games than any No. 1 overall rookie in history.
Mike Chappell: I'll hold my vote until the end of the season. We've still got four games to go. That's 25 percent of the season. So much can happen. I remember us talking in the Ford Field press box last Sunday. After three quarters, the tenor was Andrew Luck had lost the Rookie of the Year award. After the 35-33 win, he once again was the front-runner. Jump the gun, if you must. I'll wait and see how things shake out.
Phil Richards: It's tough to say that it's not Luck; the Colts are 8-4 coming from 2-14. But the Redskins are 6-6 coming off 5-11 and could easily win three or even all four of their remaining games. That would trash any argument that Griffin is all about pretty numbers. If Washington goes 9-7 or 10-6 and makes the playoffs, Griffin's probably my guy. Griffin is the NFL's most exciting player. Luck just wins games: five of them with fourth-quarter or overtime game-winning drives, and even there he's not necessarily pretty. He directed successive touchdown drives of 85 and 75 yards to beat Detroit 35-33 Sunday. That's 160 yards in 150 seconds. Luck was 7-for-16 (with two spikes) for 112 yards and ran three times for 33 yards.
Is Russell Wilson a viable contender, too?
Wilson: No question. Wilson has been the real surprise, especially after Luck and Griffin received almost all of the draft-day hype. Seattle's selection of the Wisconsin quarterback with a third-round pick, the 75th overall, was questioned because of his listed height of 5-11. But Wilson has stood tall to lead the Seahawks (7-5) into the NFC playoff hunt. If the playoffs were today, Seattle would be in because Wilson has been steady. He has beaten New England and Green Bay at home and Chicago on the road. It goes beyond completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,344 yards. What stands out is how the rookie has minimized mistakes with 19 TD passes and just eight INTs.
Chappell: No question, in my mind, this isn't a two-horse race. Even a three-horse race. Most of the attention has focused on the top two players in the draft. But as we sit here today, Wilson has Seattle sitting at 7-5 and as the tentative No. 6 seed in the NFC. He's made the city of Seattle forget Matt Flynn. But before we give the Rookie of the Year award to a QB, let's not dismiss Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin. The Bucs' first-round pick is third in the league in rushing with 1,106 yards, No. 2 in total yards from scrimmage with 1,480 and tied for No. 2 with 10 touchdowns.
Richards: Wilson merits consideration but doesn't rise to Griffin's and Luck's levels. Wilson clearly is a victim of East Coast bias. His Seahawks are 7-5. He has helped them beat the Bears, the Packers and the Patriots, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Still, Wilson has been asked to do less because the Seahawks have more. They were 7-9 last season. They not only made the playoffs, they won a wild-card game. They have one of the league's top defenses and a stout running game. Wilson's 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions are handsome stuff.
How big of a factor is Luck's low completion percentage to the discussion?
Wilson: Critics will point to Luck's lower numbers, obviously, but they must consider interim coach Bruce Arians has installed an offense that requires longer pass routes to stretch defenses. Arians doesn't care for dink-and-dunk, so Luck doesn't benefit as much from short throws to boost completion percentages. RG3 has completed 67.1 percent of his passes, Wilson 63.4 and Luck just 55.5. That seems like a large disparity, but be mindful of another statistic. Luck is asked to throw a lot more, so 503 attempts compared to Griffin's 325 and Wilson's 317 is an indication of a one-dimensional offense that relies too much on passing, hence the completion percentage suffers. It's often said offenses need to have balance. The Redskins are the NFL's No. 1 rush offense, the Seahawks are ranked seventh and the Colts 18th. The Seahawks have 393 rushes, the Redskins 379 and the Colts 326.
Chappell: Not much of a factor at all to me. Bruce Arians' aggressive approach requires Luck to chuck the ball down the field. This isn't a dink-and-dunk offense. The Colts take their shots, early and often. When you do that, the completion percentage is going to dip. Besides, I always recall Peyton Manning's completion percentage as a rookie: 56.7.
Richards: Completion percentage is insignificant compared to results. If it were a huge drag on the offense it would show up in first downs. The Colts average 14.1 passing first downs a game, No. 7 in the NFL. Washington is 29th (10.4), Seattle 31st (9.7).
How about the interceptions thrown by each QB?
Wilson: Griffin has just four INTs, so he's going to get a boost in this comparison. But aside from factoring in the Colts' penchant for passing long distances and throwing more often, it's doubtful any QB has faced more pocket pressure than Luck. And that can lead to mistakes, especially when trailing. Luck has taken 28 sacks, but he has shaken off about a dozen more with his toughness, unloading the ball after getting hit or scrambling. Griffin has 25 sacks, but he looks to run more, as evidenced by his 714 yards rushing and six run scores. Wilson has taken 23 sacks and he tends to scramble more, too, with 66 rush attempts. Griffin has run 105 times. Luck has 44 carries.
Chappell: I'm not going to make excuses for Luck's interceptions. There have been too many. A few have been the result of poor route-running by his receivers, a few the result of pressure in the pocket. Others are on Luck. But again, Arians has Luck throwing down the field. This isn't an excuse, but a reason. Of Luck's 16 interceptions, 13 have come on the road and 11 against Chicago, the Jets, New England and Detroit. Most came with the Colts behind and Luck trying to mount a comeback. Having said all that, it's pretty impressive that RG3 has just four interceptions and Wilson eight. But what's important is the total body of work.
Richards: One of the most remarkable aspects of Griffin's extraordinary season is his touchdown-interception differential, 17-4. No wonder his 104.4 passer rating trails only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. The best you can say for Luck's 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions is he has thrown the latter in gobs. Eight came in blowout road losses. Give the Colts' undermanned, injury-torn defense extraordinary credit for damage control on the rest. The Colts have yielded merely 16 points on 14 interceptions. The other two were returned for touchdowns. The defense never got on the field.
Is the winner of this year's Rookie of the Year the best rookie QB ever?
Wilson: Depends on who wins. It's an easy argument for Luck because of all the records he will break. Griffin has also set some rookie records, including back-to-back games with four TD passes. Numbers can substantiate each case. Wilson still would be in the shadow of both if he won the award because many would insist Luck or Griffin should have won. Therefore few would suggest Wilson is the best rookie ever. Perhaps a telling comparison will be how their teams finish. If the Colts reach the playoffs after such a disastrous 2011, that's a plus for Luck. The Seahawks are clinging to the last wild-card spot at the moment and should they not make it, that hurts Wilson. Same with Griffin, whose Redskins are 6-6 and will need a strong close to qualify.
Chappell: I'm not going there, unless one of these guys takes his team deep into the playoffs. Then we'll reconsider. Even then, the bar has been set rather high. In 2004, Ben Roethlisberger directed the Pittsburgh Steelers to a 15-1 record and the AFC title game, where they lost to New England. As a rookie.
Richards: Dan Marino didn't start the first five games in 1983, but he became the first rookie to lead his conference in passing with 2,110 yards, threw 20 touchdown passes with six interceptions, set a rookie record with a 96.0 passer rating, took the Dolphins (12-4) to the playoffs and became the first rookie quarterback to start a Pro Bowl. So let's think about that, take a tranquilizer and watch the rest of the season. We don't even know who the 2012 Offensive Rookie of the Year is.
^ How I feel about the Colts right about now ^"[He's] a really complete player... There's not really any weaknesses to his game." - Bill Belichick on Andrew Luck
CBS's ClarK Judge:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/2...time-of-seasonFor the record, that was Andrew Luck's sixth fourth-quarter comeback victory, the most for a rookie since the league merger in 1970. When you're comparing stats with Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, remember to include that one.
^ How I feel about the Colts right about now ^
I'm wondering if Cousins may hold all the cards in the OROY race if he is given a start. If he gets the start, comes out and throws for 300 and 2-3 TDs many voters on the fence will suddenly say Griffin is a "system QB" and side with Luck. If Cousins comes out and looks terrible all those same on the fence voters will say that he makes this system work and side with him.
After watching Luck play reminds me why the Pacers will never be a championship contender. The Pacers do not have a true leader who can pass excellent and carry the team, with the ability to close out a game and provide answers in the clutch. While I will save the Pacers banter for that forum, it is clear Luck has the "clutch gene" or "it" factor and can carry this team for years. I really don't think he cares if he wins this award or not. Hell he lost the Heismann to RG3 last year. Whats the difference? Luck was still the top pick and has turned around the franchise faster than any first overall pick before him. If Andrew doesn't win this award he will just laugh it off.. Nothing phases this kid but interceptions.
Stampede Blue: "Andrew Luck should win 2012 NFL Rookie of the year, and here's why:
http://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/12/...-and-heres-whyThe unfortunate reality that we must face is that, despite a record-breaking rookie season, Andrew Luck is probably not going to win the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award. In fact, one could argue he isn't even a factor in a contest. Most fickle, national media types are suggesting the race is more between Seattle's Russell Wilson and Washington's Robert Griffin III.
But, it isn't just the traditional media that is in this mindset.
Recently, I helped SB Nation poll 28 of their 32 NFL team bloggers. Of that group, 15 picked Griffin, 8 picked Russell, and only 4 (including me) picked Luck. After last week's Sunday Night Football game, featuring a Seahawks 42-13 beatdown of the 49ers, some of the bloggers emailed the internal list group and said, "Can I change my vote to Wilson?"
THAT is how fickle this whole thing is.
Part of the reason Luck is unlikely to get serious consideration for RotY is the fact that few have watched him play. Like it or not, the perception is that national media types who vote on these sorts of awards often don't watch film or even full games. They base their votes on prime time games, or on games that are in the local market, or, worse yet, on highlights. Since most of the US sports media resides in DC and NYC, this means they've likely seen several Redskins games, primetime or otherwise. Seattle has played in three primetime games, going 2-1.
The three Colts games these same markets likely saw? The Jets game (a 35-9 blowout loss), the Patriots game (a 59-24 blowout loss) and the Thursday Night Football game against the Jaguars (a 27-10 win).
However, with NFL.com now offering everyone both the previous week's games and the All-22 coaches game tape, it really is unacceptable for anyone with a vote not to have seen the games. If you have watched them, it's clear (at least, to me) that Luck is ahead of Griffin and Wilson, who are still working out of gimmick college offenses designed to limit and protect them. Luck runs a pro-style offense (aka, no read option), and has had to endure more while also succeeding with less around him compared to Griffin or Wilson.
Please understand, I think RG3 and Wilson have had great seasons, and they absolutely should be in the RotY discussion. However, I think Luck should win because:
He's better than both
He's done more with less
He's shattering the record books
Let's get into the details, shall we?
Here's a quick rundown of the records Luck is obliterating:
Most yards in a season by a rookie with 4,183 (Newton, 4,051)
Most attempts in a season by a rookie with 599 (Bradford, 593)
Tied an NFL record for most game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime with 7. This broke the previous rookie record held by Ben Roethlisberger (5) in 2004.
Most "wins" in a season by a rookie QB drafted No. 1 overall
Mind you, all this was done in 15 games. There's still one more to go.
Also, when you compare Luck's rookie year with Peyton Manning's in 1998, Luck looks superior.
Now, when you look at what Wilson and RG3 are doing, their season stats look great! However, not one of them is currently record-breaking. Wilson may break a significant record next week though. He is currently sitting at 25 touchdown passes. The NFL record for a rookie QB is 26, tossed by Peyton Manning in '98. If Wilson breaks that record - and it seems he will - that's a major accomplishment!
Note on Griffin: He may set the record for passer rating by a rookie with at least ten starts.
However, that's one record. Luck has several. Obviously, shattering records isn't the only criteria for award consideration, but it is a major factor. At least, it should be. If a person is dismissive of these records, then that person isn't someone who is effectively analyzing the candidates.
Records are important. If not, why keep them?
Carrying The Team
The reason the Colts are 10-5 and are heading to the playoffs is Andrew Luck. Nothing else. With RG3 and Wilson, one could make an argument that they are major cogs, but they aren't the reason. They play on teams with more talent and more experience.
This isn't surprising. Luck was drafted No. 1 overall, which means the team he went to was pretty horrible in 2011. That Colts team started out 0-13, and went on to only win only two games. Their entire roster was purged, remade, and retooled over a seven month period. Only 17 players remain from last year's 2011 squad. Of the starters on offense, only Reggie Wayne and second-year left tackle Anthony Castanzo are consistent holdovers from last year. Joe Reitz, a starter for 9 games at OG last year, and has been on and off the active roster all year, battling injuries. Among the starters on offense this season, five (including Luck) are rookies: Vick Ballard, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, and T.Y. Hilton. Rookie WR LaVon Brazill is also a significant contributor on offense.
Meanwhile, the Redskins posted a 5-11 season in 2011. Not good, but not abjectly terrible. Their roster isn't significantly turned over from last year either. They are mostly a veteran team with players like Josh Morgan, Fred Davis, and Santana Moss all making significant contributions. The team's biggest playmaker at the WR position, Pierre Garcon, is a former Colt who was signed in the offseason as a free agent.
Because the Redskins were not 2-14 bad in '11, they had to trade up to get Robert Griffin III. The only other rookie that starts with RG3 on offense is Alfred Morris, who has had a fantastic season running the ball. All other skill position players are veterans.
Seattle posted a 7-9 record last season, which is what they had the season before that. At slightly below .500, the Seahawks were already on the cusp of being a consistent playoff team before Wilson even showed up. Key contributors include veterans like Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, and Zach Miller. All were on the Seahawks roster last year.
Keep in mind, Wilson was a 3rd round pick (75th player taken overall), and the coaching staff had no intention of playing him this year before training camp started. To Wilson's credit, he won over the coaches and absolutely deserves to start over the multi-milion dollar Matt Flynn. However, he was drafted onto an already better good team, unlike Luck who has had to carry a somewhat bad and inexperienced one. Wilson is also the only rookie who starts for Seattle at a skill position on offense. Impressive rookie back Robert Turbin does spot duty for Lynch.
So, even if someone wanted to make the argument that RG3 and Wilson are the reasons their respective teams are so much improved, then consider this: The Redskins can win (potentially) 10 games in 2012. RG3 missed Week 15 against the Browns, and he was hurt on the final (and eventually game-tying) regulation drive in Week 14 against the Ravens. Rookie back-up Kirk Cousins came in and QBed both those games. He also played exceedingly well. Thus, with those two wins taken away, RG3 has given the Redskins a +3 in the win column from last year to this year. Meanwhile, the Seahawks can win potentially 11 games this year. Wilson has started every game, which means he would give Seattle a +4.
Luck helped the Colts to +8, and it could be +9 if Indy dispatches Houston on Sunday.
The Running Game
Running the ball isn't as important as throwing it. However, when your running game is effective, it can take pressure off a rookie QB and, in many ways, inflate his stats. Both Wilson and RG3 are utilized in gimmick, college-style offenses that, while effective this season, likely will not have staying power going forward. We've seen this song and dance before, with coaches using similar systems to protect the inadequacies of players like Vince Young, Michael Vick, and Tim Tebow. It never works, not over the long haul.
These offenses help limit mistakes. It's not a bad idea, and certainly it isn't Wilson's or Griffin's fault that their respective coaches opted to put them in these systems. However, it tells you something about their skill level and mental grasp of the game. Contrast this with Luck, who has been running a pro-style offense with all the stops pulled out since training camp.
What also should be considered is how Griffin and Wilson are benefiting from outstanding running games. This goes along with the "carrying the team" meme. Both RG3 and Wilson have backs who have rushed for over 1,400 yards! The running game is the basis for both offensive attacks.
These teams don't throw, and when you look at these stats, you can see why:
The Redskins are ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing using convention stats. They have 477 attempts, 2,435 yards, 18 TDs, and 5.1 yard-per-carry average. Alfred Morris has rushed for 1,413 yards and 10 TDs.
The Seahawks are ranked 2nd in the NFL in rushing using convention stats. They have 467 attempts, 2,426 yards, 15 TDs, and a 4.8 yards-per-carry average. Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 1,490 yards and 11 TDs.
If a rookie has a running game like that, he'd have to be a pretty crappy QB not to have the TD-to-INT ratios both RG3 and Wilson have. Compare rushing attacks to the Colts:
22nd in rushing, 407 attempts, 1,590 yards, 10 TDs, and a 3.9 yards-per-carry average. Vick Ballard is the leading rusher with 736 yards and 1 TD.
Luck doesn't have nearly the dominant rushing attacks that RG3 and Wilson are blessed to have. Yet, he's been able to accomplish so much. This should be considered when evaluating the candidates.
Who's Afraid To Throw, And Who Isn't
When I called the Redskins and Seahawk offenses "gimmick," I want it made clear that I do not think RG3 or Wilson "suck" and are, thus, being protected by their respeactive teams because of said suckitude. These guys are very competent QBs, not the second coming of Vince Young (though, in many ways, the hype surrounding RG3 is comparable).
However, it should give the observer pause when, as they evaluate these candidates, they see a rookie QB like Wilson placed in a read-option system. The message that it sends, fairly or not, is that the coaches do not feel comfortable with the quarterback throwing in a conventional offense. By conventional I mean the QB under center, 3-or-5 step drops, scanning the entire field, and then delivering the football to the receiver.
Both the Redskins and the Seahawks do not allow RG3 and Wilson to work in this system. This limits their attempts and, as a result, their mistakes as well. It's kind of hard to turn the football over if you're handing it off to a runningback all day.
RG3 has only thrown the ball 375 times this season. Mind you, he's missed time throughout the year with injuries, but 375 is an extremely low number. Unlike Griffin, Wilson has started every game and not missed time due to injury. Amazingly, his attempts are slightly lower, at 374.
The most attempts by Wilson in one game: 37, a 23-17 win over the Bears in Week 12. Wilson has thrown the ball more than 30 times in just three games, with team going 1-2.
The most attempts by RG3 in one game: 39, in a 21-13 loss to the Panthers in Week 9. He's thrown the ball more than 30 times in just four games, with the team going 1-3.
Of the 26 NFL quarterbacks who have started at least 12 games this year, the two with the fewest passing attempts are RG3 and Wilson. Eagles quarterback Michael Vick sits right behind Wilson in attempts at 319. Vick has only played in 9 games.
The reason these numbers are so low is, as previously stated, the 'Skins and the 'Hawks both have impressive run games. They also have very opportunistic defenses, which we will show further down. Without those two things, there is no way their attempts could be so low and the team have any sustained success on the field. Thus, the message sent when you see those numbers is the coaches for those respective teams might be a bit shy to let their rookie QBs sling the rock.
This makes sense. Both combined are 2-5 when they fling it more than 30 times a game.
The Colts have to throw to win. A lot. Andrew Luck has already shattered the rookie attempts record by tossing the rock 599 times! Of his 15 games played, Luck hasn't thrown more than 30 passes in a game just three times. In 13 others, he's thrown more than 30. In seven games, he's thrown more than 40 passes. In three games, he's thrown more than 50!
The Colts trust Luck to throw the ball, and for good reason. Redskins and Seahawks? Not so much with their guys.
Personally, I find it hard to give a RotY award to a quarterback who plays for a team that intentionally limits the opportunities for that QB to actually throw the football. But, hey, that's just me.
Luck And His (lack of) Defense
Overall, the Colts and their defensive coordinator Greg Manusky have done a fine job in 2012, considering what they have to work with. I say this with clenched teeth because no one has been more critical of the Manusky hire than me. League people and media alike did not care for his results in San Francisco or San Diego. He also wasn't Chuck Pagano's first option when the defensive coordinator job opened up.
Yet, despite injuries and the rapid decline of Dwight Freeney (who seems lost in Pagano's new hybrid 3-4 scheme), the defense has done just enough to help the team win.
However, when you compare Indy's defense with Washington's and Seattle's, you see that both Griffin and Wilson have benefited significantly while Luck has had to pick up the slack.
Using our own The Winning Stats (taken prior to the Colts win over the Chiefs in Week 16, which saw KC rush for a mind-blowing 352 yards), the Colts are:
Ranked dead last in total defense
31st in Orange Zone efficiency
28th in Red Zone efficiency
30th in forcing three-and-outs
The Colts also have the worst starting field position for their offense in the league.
When it comes to the defense having a positive impact on the game, both Griffin and Wilson benefit. Luck does not. Using Pro Football Reference's "expected points" metric, the Seahawks clock in with an impressive +40.04 rating. The Redskins are a less impressive -65.20.
The Colts: -97.63
Before Luck even gets the ball in his hands, he has to contend with the errors of his own defense, which gives up a ton of yards, can't get teams off the field on third down, and can't pressure the opposing team's QB. They have just 28 sacks.
RG3 and Wilson also benefit greatly from their defense generating turnovers, which are ultimate equalizer in football:
Redskins are 10th in defensive TOs with 28, 18 INTs and 10 fumble recoveries
Seahawks are 5th in defensive TOs with 30, 17 picks and 13 FRs
The Colts are next-to-last in the league with only 13 total turnovers. It really is amazing what Luck has been able to do despite such little from his defense in the turnover department, and it should be taken into consideration.
At the end of the day, you really can't go "wrong" voting for any of these great, young players. However, for my money, based on the numbers and on analysis that is a tad deeper than just watching a handful of primetime games, Luck is the superior QB to Wilson or Griffin. He has also played better than both, especially considering what he has had to work with compared to his counterparts.
Another thing to consider is the adversity that Luck has had to overcome. Neither Griffin nor Wilson had to battle through a season without their head coach, as Luck has had to. Do you honestly think RG3 would be having the season he's having if Kyle Shanahan had to take over as head coach for his father, Mike? If Pete Carroll had to step down mid-season, would Wilson even be starting at this point? That Luck has been able to will the Colts to 9 victories sans his head coach (10 overall) should automatically give him the RotY award! No number-crunching. No hand-wring over his 54% pass completion number.
9 wins sans your coach? Here's your award, kid!
Sadly, I think that important bit of information is getting lost in the national analysis.
Really, it doesn't truly matter who wins this award. I'm happy with the guy the Colts have, and I have a strong belief that if the Redskins or Seahawks could dump their guys for our No. 12, they would. Still, it would be preferable that the people voting on these awards and analyzing the candidates do their due diligence. It's unacceptable now, with all the modern stat tools and the All-22 tape, for anyone not to know just how great Andrew Luck is and how obviously deserving he is of the RotY award.
^ How I feel about the Colts right about now ^
I got tired of all the other PDSers putting Luck down... In the Russel Wilson for ROY thread one poster said that Luck deserved 0 votes.... This pissed me off and here is my response.
1. two of those Colts losses were blowouts within the first 5 games of the season. (Chicago, Jets) Young team with 2/3rds of the team being new. New coaching staff and front office.
2. This article has nothing to do with the rest of the team. Wilson is playing with a better defense, Running game and offensive line. Obviously they dont contribute at all the QB's efficiency stats.
3. Quarterback rating is one of, if not the most useless stat in the NFL. Why? Because it doesnt factor in anything of importance. 5/8 completions for a total of 12 yards is better than 3/8 completions for a total of 45 yards. If one QB's WR's drop 7 balls it isnt factored. It doent account for the offensive lines efficiency. IE: total times the QB was pressured or sacked. It doesnt factor in the RB's efficiency... Its a crap stat.
4. If you stack just the numbers against each other Luck has over 1,200 more passing yards. He has attempted 225 more passes and completed 88 more passes. As a result Luck has been sacked 13 more times than Wilson and thrown 8 more picks. (All of this applies to RG3 too, who has very similar numbers to Wilson. only 12 more completions, 1 more attempt and sacked 2 more times than Wilson) Luck also throws the ball deep on 27.2% of his passes, second in the NFL only to Jay Cutler. Compare that to #6) Wilson at 23% and #27) RG3 at 18.1%. If you think Wilson could drop back another 225 times in the season and throw the ball long an extra 4.2% of his passes without his pass % falling and his INT's going up, youre crazy.
Luck is being asked to do more than any other rookie QB and its not even close.
5. RB's... i mean come the F on. How much easier is it to throw when you have RB support? Check the stats.
SEA: Lynch - #2 in total rushing yards. Tied #2 in rushing TD's. #9 in YPC. 1490 total rushing yards, 11 rushing TD's, 6.0 YPC.
WAS: Morris - #4 in total rushing yards. Tied #7 in rushing TD's. Tied #13 in YPC. 1328 total rushing yards, 9 rushing TD's, 4.7 YPC.
IND: Ballard - #22 in total rushing yards. #44 in rushing TD's. #25 in YPC. 736 total rushing yard, 1 rushing TD, 4.0 YPC.
6. Turnover differential. Our defense is not giving our offense, and by extension Luck, extra possessions. Washington is 5th in Turnover Differential, Seattle is 7th and the Colts are 29th with -14. We are tied for 2nd to last with 13 takeaways.
7. The Seahawks have the 4th best overall defense in the League. The Colts are #26 and the 'Skins are #28. Better defense = less necessary for the offense to score a lot of points, less pressure on the offense, more possessions on offense and usually lower scoring games which result in the QB not having to pass as much.
8. QB hits... The Colts are #1 in the NFL with 97 hits on Luck. This has caused quite a few of those INT's that drastically effects the QB's stats in QBR and are conveniently not factored into any OROY discussions. Meanwhile Washington is #6 with 75 (not all on RG3 due to the time he missed ) and Seattle is #20 with 56.
9. Luck has the most passing yards by a rookie in a single season (4,183). He has the most passing yards in a single game by a rookie quarterback (433). He has the most 300+ yards passing games by a rookie QB. He has the most wins by a #1 pick QB in his rookie season and tied for most among current rookie QB's. He has the most fourth quarter comebacks by a rookie quarterback (6). He has tied the record for the most game winning drives in a season for both a rookie and a veteran (7).
If you think Luck doesnt deserve votes, you are bad at evaluating QB play and stats. What he has done this year has been nothing short of amazing. The Colts depend on him so much, and he has delivered. Without him, we are probably a 3 or 4 win team.
Heres an article more relevant to the discussion than the one you posted although it is about 3 weeks old.
Last edited by ombada; 12-26-2012 at 10:05 PM.
There's been about 5 of the Russell Wilson/RG3 threads, pretty annoying.
but i suppose we should be glad Luck isnt being lumped together with those two. Weather people like him or not it seems he has separated himself from the other two QB's in peoples eyes in one way or another. In my opinion by being a better more consistent QB.