2012-2013 Off-season thread part II

[bagwell368]

I've been reading 3yrs $30 mil for Victorino so I thought it would be better to overpay a little for 2 years instead of 3. Either way I think he would be trade bait after the first year when Jackie Bradley Jr is ready anyway. I think the same could be done with Haren. If he has a bounce back year and the Sox are out of it in July, he could net a nice return. That's why I favor 1 and 2 year deals for vets this off-season, because if we aren't serious contenders like most of us believe, these guys can help get us even more future parts if we sell them off.

Still taking a risk that both Haren and Victorino will be desirable in a trade. Also taking a risk the JBJ is going to be an actual ML player - although no matter what we do, it looks like that theory is going to be tested out.

Getting cheaper two year players cuts the potential we get back in deal, but also protects us a lot better against failure/injury.

[bagwell368]

You and Bags tied at 280.

I got to get me a job...

[GrkGawdofWalkz]

I got to get me a job...

Try fact checker for prosportsdaily.com. Heh. Just kidding. Lucchino needs to stay off the air waves and in his office. Can we lock the door from the outside?

[GrkGawdofWalkz]

The Royals, from all appearances, might be willing to part with Myers (or Hosmer) to obtain Shields or Lester.

(Pulled from the quotes section)

Hosmer or Myers rumor heating back up. If Hosmer is really available for Lester that should definitely increase interest full boar. I'm okay with that kind of sacrifice.

[bagwell368]

(Pulled from the quotes section)

Hosmer or Myers rumor heating back up. If Hosmer is really available for Lester that should definitely increase interest full boar. I'm okay with that kind of sacrifice.

Ehhh... He's bad against lefties, and his fielding is poor. Obviously he is young, but he just doesn't look like a slam dunk blue chipper to me.

Maybe a 3 way, or maybe Buchholz for Hosmer and a real spec (no not Myers, but not that far back) - maybe.

Lester has to get us somebody a little more sure to click IMO.

[ruckus16969]

The more I think about it the more I would like to sign Hamilton to a 4 year deal, maybe with a vesting option for a 5th. There would need to be some strongly worded clauses to allow the Sox to void his contract if he relapses, but I think they could design a system to keep him out of trouble. One of my biggest concerns for this team long term is left handed power in the lineup, especially with Ortiz coming towards the end of his career. Hamilton could play LF for 2 years then maybe move to DH and replace Ortiz once he retires.

My ideal off-season would be something like:

Sign
Hamilton- 4yrs- $96mil (vesting option for 5th)
Haren- 2 yrs- $24mil
Brian Wilson- 1yr- $5mil
Dallas Braden- 1yr $3mil (+ incentives)
Shane Victorino- $2 yrs $22mil (only if we trade Ells before the season)

Trade
Lester and Bard to KC for Wil Myers, Cheslor Cuthbert and Mike Montgomery
I still love the Lester for Myers idea and I also have no faith in Bard. Cuthbert and Montgomery are both lottery tickets with huge upside but also bust potential. I don't mind taking a risk here because the potential gain far outweighs the risks in my opinion. I don't see Lester leading us to a World Series in the next 2 years, but I can see Myers as a perennial All Star in RF for the next decade. Plus prospects with the kind of pedigree, high ranking and elite performance in the upper levels of the minors have an excellent record of success and the vast majority have become above average MLB regulars if not stars (Delmon Young being the obvious exception).

Stolmy Pimentel, Jeremy Hazelbaker and Cash to Min for Justin Morneau
Morneau still crushes righties (.902 OPS in 2012) and could be a bounce back candidate. If Gomes can take some at bats against lefty's we could get some nice production out of 1B and we aren't stuck long term. If Morneau performs he could be brought back

RP- Craig Breslow to Stl for Anthony Garcia
I'm just a big fan of Anthony Garcia and think he could be a gem of a prospect. Not highly rated in the Cards system yet and they need a LH relief pitcher.

Salty and Aceves to Chi Cubs for Dan Vogelbach and Barret Loux
Cubs need catching help and the Sox need left handed power in the farm system. Cubs get a starting C and versatile major league RP for a top 5-10 and top 15-20 prospect in the Cubs system.

Ellsbury traded either now or at the deadline depending on if we can get a good deal. If we could do something like Ells to Seattle for Hultzen I would do it. If we don't move him until the deadline then we don't sign Victorino.

Short term that would leave us with something like

C- Lavarnway/Ross
1B- Morneau/Gomes
2B- Pedroia
3B- Middlebrooks
SS- Iglesias
LF- Hamilton
CF- Ellsbury (Victorino)
RF- Myers
DH- Ortiz

B- Ross
B- Ciriaco
B- Gomes
B- Kalish

1. Ellsbury (Victorino)
2. Pedroia
3. Ortiz
4. Hamilton
5. Middlebrooks
6. Morneau
7. Myers
8. Lavarnway
9. Iglesias

SP- Buchholz
SP- Haren
SP- Doubront
SP- Lackey
SP- Braden/De La Rosa/Morales


I think short-term this would be an exciting team and if some things came together with the pitching it could potentially compete for a playoff spot. But the key is to build for the future. We keep all of our top prospects as well as gain Myers who is rated higher than anyone currently in our system. We could also have a pretty decent haul for Ellsbury and we also don't handcuff ourselves long term with any potential albatross contracts because 4 years of Hamilton should be pretty safe.

So I would pretty much do all the deals Bags hates, nothing personal, just a difference of opinion.

I like but if we trade Lester we NEED Sanchez imo

(Pulled from the quotes section)

Hosmer or Myers rumor heating back up. If Hosmer is really available for Lester that should definitely increase interest full boar. I'm okay with that kind of sacrifice.

I would LOVE for this to happen

[RedSoxtober]

I think Hamilton signs with a team sometime this week for the right deal. If not, its going to be a long wait. As for Napoli, not sure if he signs here after what we heard from LL.

Sox appear to be the clear favorite for Napoli. The only downside for Napoli is that the Sox prefer him at 1B. However, the Rangers only want to go 2yrs with him and the Mariners would hurt his long term value even if they pull in the fences as expected. The Sox can afford to overpay him a bit and maybe offer a team option on yr 4 (which they'd likely decline) to sweeten the pot.

@Evan_P_Grant
Geovany Soto has agreed to a one-year contract with the Rangers, pending a physical.

Could effect Napoli.

Doubtful. He came in to backup and nothing about his .196/.253/.338 line in TEX suggests he's really contending to be the top receiver, especially since it's fairly well in line with three of his last four seasons.

I simply can't see Hamilton coming here, even though I'd drool over the bat in the middle of the lineup. We already have Gomes in left, whom Cherington has said he will have a much larger role than a part time player. It just creates a log jam. Gomes in right would be a disaster, and if we sign Hamilton to play LF, then where and when would Gomes play? I just don't see it. I can see them happily bringing Ross back to play RF, even though I'd much rather have Swisher. My predictions for this week:

Don't put too much stock in what's said at a player's introductory press conference or any FO quotes at the start of the offseason. Gomes is here for pennies and they won't have any trouble moving him in/out if a better player comes along. Besides, his success against lefties could STILL mean lots of playing time if your alternatives are all LH (Kalish, Ellsbury, Hamilton).

Also, taking a longer view of things, by 2014 at least one of those pieces is probably gone (Ellsbury) and you've made a decision on another (Kalish). The "log jam" resolves pretty quickly.

I would rather have Ross than Swisher, the years match our long-term plans and I don't want to jam up 1B/DH with Swish/Napoli 2-3 years from now. I would, however, sign Hamilton if we can't get Napoli or Ross. I think he can play RF for a year or two at the least, and we do need another LHH power bat for if/when Ortiz goes down again.

Why would 1B/DH "jam up" 2-3 years from now? Ortiz is likely playing on his last Red Sox contract so 2-3 years from now the Sox would have a hole at DH. The situation becomes easier in 2015, not harder.

We need pitching badly. If we don't sign at least one pitcher Ben failed. If lester fails or gets injured ,who do we have as our ace. Surely not Buch, or Doubront and certainly not lackey.

Don't hold your breath. The Sox appear more convinced that the pitching simply underperformed than that the pitching is fundamentally flawed. If they have a chance to make a bold move at pitching they may do it but I doubt they find much to their liking. In a year that saw most front line pitching FA candidates extend with their clubs the pitching trade market is too expensive.

I was thinking that Victorino would be a good flip candidate even if we signed him to a multi year deal. His bat wont play well in LF though.

Veterans are protected by MLB rules. If a vet player (forget the #yrs but I think it applies to anyone eligible for FA) is traded during the first year of their new contract they can demand a trade after the season or be granted FA. A mulityear deal for him would present more risk than it's worth IF you plan on flipping him.

[bagwell368]

Ha! Arod needs another Labrum surgery in his hip and will miss time next year.

[GrkGawdofWalkz]

Ha! Arod needs another Labrum surgery in his hip and will miss time next year.

There's a never going to be traded guarantee. He's so over the hill he's fallen further than Jack and cannot ever get up again! I love it. Now the Yankees will overspend on Stephen Drew and also need more over priced aged talent.

[Nomar]

I would trade something like Lester and Webster for Myers and Hosmer. I know we need pitching but value is value and high ceiling 1Bs are more rare than #3 starters.

We could then go pursue an Ells for Hultzen deal which would give us a good lefty to replace Lester well in time. This could happen now or midseason.

[Redsox07Champs]

Now that I think about it, I could see Cherington making a play for Hamilton, 5 years 125 mil. Cherington needs to make a splash. Put him in RF. Gomes should be able to see plenty of at bats somehow. If signing Hams happens, I can see Ross coming back more likely to happen than swisher coming in. Bring in Naps, and I would really love Matt Garza to come in. Ship off Salty and some specs. I wouldn't mind a Steven Drew signing either.

1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Hamilton LF
4. Ortiz DH
5. Napoli 1B
6. Middlebrooks 3B
7. Ross LF
8. Lavarnway C
9. Drew SS

1. Lester
2. Buchholz
3. Garza
4. Lackey
5. Doubront

[SirHizz]

Red Sox close to deal with Napoli

per Bradford

My guess is: 3/33 range

[Redsox07Champs]

Napoli

[GrkGawdofWalkz]

Red Sox close to deal with Napoli

per Bradford

Great news, get this out of the way and move on to the next move.

[Norieaga]

I honestly wouldn't be opposed to Hamilton. Let's say, for example, 4yr/$120M? Its an annual overpay in exchange for less years. I would do it. We're probably not resigning Ellsbury and still lack middle-of-the-order depth. Are we going to rely on Papi for the majority of our slugging? He's fantastic but still getting older by the day.

Hamilton
Ortiz
Napoli
Middlebrooks

Is NICE. Would also give Middlebrooks time to develop more as a hitter instead of throwing him into the cleanup spot or slightly lower/higher. I'm all for Hamilton at 4 years.