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Thread: Rule V Draft

  1. #76
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    Rule V Draft

    And again there are many examples of guy who continuously out pitch their FIP in the majors.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sick Of It All View Post
    And again there are many examples of guy who continuously out pitch their FIP in the majors.
    I expect him to outpitch his peripherals in the big leagues. Something like a 4.50 ERA with a 5.50 FIP could be reached.

  3. #78
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    Rule V Draft

    Doubt it will be that high, because again he does not walk many and k's a good amount of guys.

  4. #79
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    He will most likely have a low BABIP, low GB%, less Ks, more walks, less LOB% thus a higher FIP and ERA.

  5. #80
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    Rule V Draft

    And that is what you think, but is not a fact.

  6. #81
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    We'll see.

  7. #82
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    Armando's fastball velocity is average, but the location and movement make it a good MLB pitch. I never was impressed with his secondaries, although maybe the slider has improved enough to give him a shot.

    One thing, FIP isn't the best predictor of future performance, because it includes HR. You actually get better prediction accuracy looking at only strikeout and walk rates. There's too much noise in HR rates. That said, in the pen this year, Armando had a reasonable FIP of 3.27, partly due to striking out a 29.2% of batters. And he does have a high fly ball rate, but also a high rate of infield flys (popups) at 13%.

    I'd still take Germen as more likely to help the Mets next year. I think if they need a pen arm, the guy who is in the rotation at AA is more likely to be useful than the guy who is already in the pen. And Germen's fastball is just as good, plus he also has arguably the best change in the organization right now. But it's pretty close. Armando has had very low WHIP and battting average against at every level, as well as the good strikeout rates. I'd like to see what he does in Vegas this year.

  8. #83
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    Why shouldn't HR allowed be included in predicting future performance? Armando gave up 11 HR in 75 IP in FSL last year, and 13 HR in 72.2 IP in AA this year.

    Thanks to his high flyball and infield fly ball rates, he will not give up many hits, but he will get hit very hard from time to time. I'm not expecting him to do well in Vagas at all. If he succeeds there, then I suppose he will likely succeed in the big leagues.

    I think Jon Rauch is the best case scenario for him, and not the younger Rauch.

  9. #84
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    Rule V Draft

    Because if a guy does not allow many hits or walks many and gets a good a mount of K's is likely to continue to succeed, because even though he may allow a few homers he will limit the damage done. This is why they out pitch their FIP because they can do this, but because of the high amount of homers their FIP will be bloated.

  10. #85
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    Grienke has the biggest friggin annual salary ever for a pitcher.... Which really makes Dickey look like the biggest bargain ever. I can't see him not being traded. I'm still hoping for and Myers as my top targets. Things are really going to start happening soon, so it seems.

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna28 View Post
    Why shouldn't HR allowed be included in predicting future performance? Armando gave up 11 HR in 75 IP in FSL last year, and 13 HR in 72.2 IP in AA this year.

    Thanks to his high flyball and infield fly ball rates, he will not give up many hits, but he will get hit very hard from time to time. I'm not expecting him to do well in Vagas at all. If he succeeds there, then I suppose he will likely succeed in the big leagues.

    I think Jon Rauch is the best case scenario for him, and not the younger Rauch.
    Well you should go more off the outfield flyball rate than the actual HR allowed. So xFIP if that's available instead of FIP. Arm Rod does have the high flyball rate though, so yes HRs will likely continue to be a problem.

    The problem with using actual HR is you almost never have a large enough sample for it to be a good predictor. He allowed 13 HR, but with a little bit different luck, maybe there could have been 5 less and you would have a reasonable HR/9. A small number of events there can cause a big swing in FIP.

  12. #87
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    Is it just me or does anyone else think Greinke is overrated?

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