He definitely has a shot this year. They have to end up with at least the 2 seed though and win at least 55 games.
The thing he's got going for him more than Lebron or Durant is he's been on a team whose been hovering at .500 the past 2 years and had 2 1st round playoff losses.
His team has a chance to improve more than OKC or MIA as far as win differential when compared to last year. That always plays a huge part when selecting an MVP.
It's not the best player award, it's the most valuable. Rose won it a few years ago when it was blatantly obvious the award should've went to Lebron as he had him beat in pretty much every important basketball statistic/category. But team success, especially if your win total skyrockets from the previous year, plays a major role in who wins these type of awards. He has an excellent chance, just keep his FG% over 47%, score over 25 ppg and win at least 55 games this year and lock up a 2nd seed. Tall task, but it can be done.