3 teams looking to meet with Mets on Dickey-Rubin post #918

[StayOnBoard]

I was talking to a buddy about Dickey today and we were discussing how this could end up playing out. I have a very hypothetical situation I'd like to ask you guys on which route you would prefer.

So - first off, let's just assume that the Mets can only get one elite type prospect back in a trade. I don't want to haggle about what compensation is, let's pretend its Olt + a scrubby prospect or Gose + JPA, or something very similar to those types of packages (obviously, not enough in terms of expectations to the fans but let's just assume that's the situation as it's probably realistic in terms of what other teams are offering). In addition, the Mets and Dickey cannot agree on an extension, so they have him under control for 1 year @ 5 million.

Would you rather:
a) Trade him right now for Olt + (or a similar package, players/teams don't matter as much) even though its' not really enough value
b) Attempt to trade him again at the trade deadline, knowing very likely his trade value would be much lower since other teams cannot give him a qualifying offer at the end of the year AND that'd only get 1/2 season, rather than a full year
or option
c) Let him walk at the end of the year, give him a qualifying offer and collect a draft pick (Dickey already said if he has to play out the year on his existing contract he's going elsewhere in 2013).

Assuming these are the choices, which one would you guys want?

[vtmet]

I was talking to a buddy about Dickey today and we were discussing how this could end up playing out. I have a very hypothetical situation I'd like to ask you guys on which route you would prefer.

So - first off, let's just assume that the Mets can only get one elite type prospect back in a trade. I don't want to haggle about what compensation is, let's pretend its Olt + a scrubby prospect or Gose + JPA, or something very similar to those types of packages (obviously, not enough in terms of expectations to the fans but let's just assume that's the situation as it's probably realistic in terms of what other teams are offering). In addition, the Mets and Dickey cannot agree on an extension, so they have him under control for 1 year @ 5 million.

Would you rather:
a) Trade him right now for Olt + (or a similar package, players/teams don't matter as much) even though its' not really enough value
b) Attempt to trade him again at the trade deadline, knowing very likely his trade value would be much lower since other teams cannot give him a qualifying offer at the end of the year AND that'd only get 1/2 season, rather than a full year
or option
c) Let him walk at the end of the year, give him a qualifying offer and collect a draft pick (Dickey already said if he has to play out the year on his existing contract he's going elsewhere in 2013).

Assuming these are the choices, which one would you guys want?

Choice d:
re-sign him to a 3 year deal, tearing up the option, whereas he gets paid about $10 Mil in all 3 seasons...but DON'T include a "no trade" clause...In theory, he should be worth more in 2013, than he is in 2015 but unless the Option is thrown out, he'll be getting paid much more in 2015 than he is now...

I think that protects Dickey from being overly underpaid, gets him set for his career financially, and leaves the Mets in better position to trade him if that makes sense in the long run...

[StayOnBoard]

Choice d:
re-sign him to a 3 year deal, tearing up the option, whereas he gets paid about $10 Mil in all 3 seasons...but DON'T include a "no trade" clause...In theory, he should be worth more in 2013, than he is in 2015 but unless the Option is thrown out, he'll be getting paid much more in 2015 than he is now...

Right - except I already said "what if Sandy sticks to his guns and they can't work out an extension".

I actually agree with you - I think the Mets should have signed him ALREADY. I can't even fathom why they're low balling him so terribly when guys like Jeremie ****ing Guthrie are getting big deals from teams and he's about 1/100th the pitcher Dickey is.

So - I'll repeat myself, assuming they cannot reach an agreement? Honestly at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if it's soon getting to the point where Dickey is getting tired of all this low-balling nonsense and just says fine I'll walk next year regardless. Even 3/30 for him is an absolute steal and I think it's fair to say his "market value" at least if he was a free agent this offseason would be somewhere around 3/45. Would you agree?

[Metsin08]

Given just a,b, or c I would say a. 2013 is somewhat irrelevant since we haven't done anything to improve the team. Might as well try to improve it for the next 5 years.

Ideally, I think we're all on the same page with choice d. Sign him already.

[Daaaarryyl]

^^ It really depends on what option A looks like as far as the total package TBH. If the secondary prospects are in the lower levels (2 yrs away) but are very good prospects with the "chance" to be great prospects in 2014 I'd go with option A.

[StayOnBoard]

^^ It really depends on what option A looks like as far as the total package TBH. If the secondary prospects are in the lower levels (2 yrs away) but are very good prospects with the "chance" to be great prospects in 2014 I'd go with option A.

Fair... I know the Jays system best so I'll give an "example" package there. Then I'll attempt to do Texas, though I know far less.

Let's assume option A is giving up from Toronto
Anthony Gose + Arencibia + Deck McGuire

OR Texas

Mike Olt + Joey Gallo + Rougned Odor

Side note: No one needs to remind me that Deck McGuire sucks or freak the **** out because of the deal, it's just an example. I understand it might feel like a "low ball" offer from the Mets point of view and regardless if I agree with that or not - this is hypothetically the "max" offer the Jays and Rangers give and the Mets need to make a decision. At least in our fun little scenario

[Oldmantrash]

Fair... I know the Jays system best so I'll give an "example" package there. Then I'll attempt to do Texas, though I know far less.

Let's assume option A is giving up from Toronto
Anthony Gose + Arencibia + Deck McGuire

OR Texas

Mike Olt + Joey Gallo + Rougned Odor

Side note: No one needs to remind me that Deck McGuire sucks or freak the **** out because of the deal, it's just an example. I understand it might feel like a "low ball" offer from the Mets point of view and regardless if I agree with that or not - this is hypothetically the "max" offer the Jays and Rangers give and the Mets need to make a decision. At least in our fun little scenario

I would take the Texas trade first, but I don't like either.
I would hope it doesn't come to that.

[vtmet]

Right - except I already said "what if Sandy sticks to his guns and they can't work out an extension".

I actually agree with you - I think the Mets should have signed him ALREADY. I can't even fathom why they're low balling him so terribly when guys like Jeremie ****ing Guthrie are getting big deals from teams and he's about 1/100th the pitcher Dickey is.

So - I'll repeat myself, assuming they cannot reach an agreement? Honestly at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if it's soon getting to the point where Dickey is getting tired of all this low-balling nonsense and just says fine I'll walk next year regardless. Even 3/30 for him is an absolute steal and I think it's fair to say his "market value" at least if he was a free agent this offseason would be somewhere around 3/45. Would you agree?

agreed...the only thing is though, that Dickey is taking a risk since there is no guarantee that his 2013 season will be comparable to his 2011/2012...
I think that a contract of:
2013: $10 Mil;
2014: $12 Mil;
2015: $ 8 Mil;
would be best for all parties involved (even if they don't think so)...that contract would keep all parties protected...Not a lot of teams want to give up much for a 1 year player, and they also probably wouldn't want to be paying a guy 40+ years old $10+ mil...and it would still put the Mets in position to trade him if that is what is best for the club long term, when it becomes apparent to management that this is a 4th place team in 2013...

And if they didn't want to technically tear up the Option, they could make it a $25 mil deal with a $5 Mil signing bonus payable in 2013 (so that the 2014/2015 seasons are still averaging $10 Mil a piece)...

[StayOnBoard]

agreed...the only thing is though, that Dickey is taking a risk since there is no guarantee that his 2013 season will be comparable to his 2011/2012...
I think that a contract of:
2013: $10 Mil;
2014: $12 Mil;
2015: $ 8 Mil;
would be best for all parties involved (even if they don't think so)...that contract would keep all parties protected...Not a lot of teams want to give up much for a 1 year player, and they also probably wouldn't want to be paying a guy 40+ years old $10+ mil...and it would still put the Mets in position to trade him if that is what is best for the club long term, when it becomes apparent to management that this is a 4th place team in 2013...

Dickey has actually pitched well since the beginning of the 2010 season. Obviously, he wasn't dominant like he was last year but having ERA's at 2.84 and 3.28 isn't too shabby. His FIP and xFIP were both a lot higher at 3.65-3.95 ranges, which would make you think he'd have a worse year in 2012, rather than the brilliant one he did have, but I think that's in part because his k/9 went through the roof.

IMO that's the most interesting stat for him is his k/9, going from 5.78 to 8.86 is just staggering when his career was always around the 5 mark. The thing is, does he keep that up or does he revert back to closer to 5? I'd suspect his ERA and other stats would rise if his k rate lowers...

The thing is, even if his k/9 does go back to the 5 mark, he's still a good pitcher, he's just not a Cy Young calibur one. If a guy like Guthrie can get 3/27 or whatever it is, Dickey should be getting at least 2/28 + his option. That's 3/33 total, back load it so the Mets can afford to sign other players this offseason and Dickey is still giving them a hometown discount.

[metsrock229]

@MLB: "You want what you think is fair, and ... I feel like we're asking for less than what's fair." - @RADickey43: http://t.co/trfEgPLg

He's right.

[bklynny67]

[/B]


I'm much higher on Niese then a lot of people on here. I wouldn't trade him for anyone but Myers straight up. I wouldn't even trade him for Upton as IDK if last year he regressed or just had a sub par year. I really think he will develop into a solid number 2 starter for us this year.

You have got to be kidding me, right? Niese got Myers straight up? Niese isn't good enough for that man, come on..... and if there was a chance for Niese for Justin Upton, you bet your *** the Mets would make that deal without looking back. We'd be stupid not to. The guy is 24 yrs old with already a couple good yrs under his belt, including one that was pretty great. Lets be happy you're not the GM. Sorry but you are overrating our guys.

[Daaaarryyl]

IMO that's the most interesting stat for him is his k/9, going from 5.78 to 8.86 is just staggering when his career was always around the 5 mark. The thing is, does he keep that up or does he revert back to closer to 5? I'd suspect his ERA and other stats would rise if his k rate lowers...

From what I understand the pitching coach, Dan Warthen (who I'm not a fan of) convinced Dickey that his conventional game plan of "keeping the ball down" to ensure more groundouts, while working pretty well for him, could actually be thrown to the side as hitters would be much more apt to swing at pitches up in the zone.

When he first started doing it early in the year his control/command of the knuckler was OK but not great just yet (the colder/damper conditions does that to a Knuckleball) but when the weather warmed up his command improved and he was getting swinging strikes on the high knuckler, called strikes on the low knuckler all the while changing speeds on the Knuckler and mixing in the occasional fastball and the K-rate went through the roof.

BTW-Toronto playing indoors would make his knuckler lethal, like 'no-hitter watch' for every home game.

[acerimusdux]

You have got to be kidding me, right? Niese got Myers straight up? Niese isn't good enough for that man, come on.....

It wasn't enough, but it seemed it wasn't that far off either. Brett Anderson apparently was enough; Oakland turned that down. He only really has a little more upside than Niese.

[oshman800]

Dickey really must not have any value if the Tigers were offering a good package for Shields but has no interest in R.A.

The Tigers offered outfielder Avisail Garcia and other prospects, Knobler reports. Though the Rays like Garcia, they preferred the Royals' offer, which included top prospect Wil Myers.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/da...or-shields-too

[NY_Heartbreak]

Shields is definitely the safer bet from the perspective of other teams.