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  1. #811
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    I'd say it's a significant level up from having Hochevar and Chen as your 1 and 2.

    Chen also sucked for like a decade before they got some good out of him, so possibly they mine more out of Davis than the Rays got as a starter (crazy as that may sound, nobody is as amazing special as the Rays).

    They won 72 games with their top two prospects struggling at the ML level (Hosmer and Moustakas) and Bruce Chen/Luke Hochevar "anchoring" their rotation until Guthrie showed up and outdid both.

    The Rays thrive on pushing the margins - this is an exercise in that for the Royals.

    Guthrie is a really good #5 if he is your 5, and closer to a weak 3/strong 4 using that scale of randomness.

  2. #812
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBears79 View Post
    I would have done it. The A's have a lot of quality pitchers on their staff, plus pitching depth in their farm and Anderson would have made sense for Myers. All they would have lost was an injury ridden pitcher who still has upside for a power hitting LF/RF with cost control.
    Onway to spin it...Another to spin it is that they would have lost their most talented pitcher in the majors or minors, a guy who doesn't even cost that much now, is still under control, and is their best pitcher when he is on the mound.

    Winning baseball is more than just controlling costs.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-10-2012 at 12:19 PM.

  3. #813
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    I'd say it's a significant level up from having Hochevar and Chen as your 1 and 2.

    Chen also sucked for like a decade before they got some good out of him, so possibly they mine more out of Davis than the Rays got as a starter (crazy as that may sound, nobody is as amazing special as the Rays).

    They won 72 games with their top two prospects struggling at the ML level (Hosmer and Moustakas) and Bruce Chen/Luke Hochevar "anchoring" their rotation until Guthrie showed up and outdid both.

    The Rays thrive on pushing the margins - this is an exercise in that for the Royals.

    Guthrie is a really good #5 if he is your 5, and closer to a weak 3/strong 4 using that scale of randomness.
    A guy who has never had a FIP below 4.41 is a weak 3 strong 4? He had a 5.10FIP and 4.75xFIP last year which is terrible. By these standards Scott Feldman must be a really solid #3 since FIP/xFIP the last 2 years are better than Guthrie has ever had in his career.

  4. #814
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    Really makes you wish Garza was healthy
    Save the kittens, ignore sbs' posts
    Red Sox hater since 10/2011

    It is anyway, not anyways.

  5. #815
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    Most of that FIP and ERA came with the Rockies. He went to the Royals and put up a 3.16 ERA. He's been a solid pitcher with the O's for years before that - much better than actual 5 starters like Chen and Hochevar.

  6. #816
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Onway to spin it...Another to spin it is that they would have lost their most talented pitcher in the majors or minors, a guy who doesn't even cost that much now, is still under control, and is their best pitcher when he is on the mound.

    Winning baseball is more than just controlling costs.
    I'll take the MLB ready kid with perennial allstar potential over the "ace" who can't even give you half a season of production.

  7. #817
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tryptamine View Post
    It's not like adding Shields made the Royals pitching staff good. Guthrie is still a back of the rotation #5 type, Santana's only decent year of his career was 2011 when his xFIP was still 4.00, Wade Davis has never had a FIP or xFIP below 4.5 as a starter. They don't have a single guy on that staff other than Shields who qualifies as a #3 or better. If the Royals had just added Odorizzi to the rotation and got rid of Francouer in favor of Myers the effect on their record probably would have been similar and at least they'd have both of them under control for the next 6 years cheaply. So now what we're left with is the Royals trying to win with a below average rotation in the next 2 years while greatly depleting their future and their trade chips.
    There's no discussing it with you when you're so completely overvaluing Odorizzi.

  8. #818
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Most of that FIP and ERA came with the Rockies. He went to the Royals and put up a 3.16 ERA. He's been a solid pitcher with the O's for years before that - much better than actual 5 starters like Chen and Hochevar.
    Are you still ignoring that his career best FIP and xFIP were 4.41 and 4.18 respectively while happening all the way back in 2007. Using his very small amount of time spent with the Royals last year to justify him is pretty disingenuous.

  9. #819
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Onway to spin it...Another to spin it is that they would have lost their most talented pitcher in the majors or minors, a guy who doesn't even cost that much now, is still under control, and is their best pitcher when he is on the mound.

    Winning baseball is more than just controlling costs.
    But that's the thing he isn't always on the mound because he's hurt.

    I get your logic and where your coming from but I don't agree with it. With Parker, Strailey, Griffin, Cole, Peacock, Gray etc. They have so much pitching that they could have offset the loss of Anderson.

  10. #820
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    Quote Originally Posted by CPorter07 View Post
    There's no discussing it with you when you're so completely overvaluing Odorizzi.
    I'm not though, I value him as a guy who could be a mid rotation starter and that's about it. However you have him for 6 years and you have him cheap. I'll take that over Wade Davis who was at best a marginal starter in 2010 and 2011.

  11. #821
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tryptamine View Post
    Are you still ignoring that his career best FIP and xFIP were 4.41 and 4.18 respectively while happening all the way back in 2007. Using his very small amount of time spent with the Royals last year to justify him is pretty disingenuous.

    Guthrie is a type of pitcher who outperforms his FIP's in most seasons. This is something you need to consider with him, just like you would expecting a lot more for a pitcher who always underperforms FIPs wise(Ervin Santana is another as you mentioned). Guthrie could easily have a era in the high 3s or low to mid 4's and the Royals would be happy with him as the 3-4 starter next year. Also to just assume Odorizzi will be better then Davis let alone Shields is also flawed. Davis was a even better prospect going into the 2010 season. Heck I don't think you can even write off Davis as being better going forward either. I think pitching out of the pen last year might have helped him become a better starter going forward.
    Last edited by cubswin25; 12-10-2012 at 01:07 PM.
    "Too big, too strong, too fast, too good"

  12. #822
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    Has there been any rumors as to what the Cubs are doing lately? I'm looking at sites like BN and here, but haven't come across much has anyone heard anything from Bystro or Ty?

    Not begging just kinda curious seeing as how I have a boring day till 6 pm when I work and was just curious to see whats up....in them Cubbies world

    BULLS PLAYOFF PUSH 2014!!

  13. #823
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubswin25 View Post
    Guthrie is a type of pitcher who outperforms his FIP's in most seasons. This is something you need to consider with him, just like you would expecting a lot more for a pitcher who always underperforms FIPs wise. Guthrie could easily have a era in the high 3s or low to mid 4's and the Royals would be happy with him as the 3-4 starter next year.
    It's possible he is a statistical anomaly much like Hellickson where he doesn't strike anyone out, gives up well over a hit per inning and still puts up a nice ERA despite just an average LOB%. I'm simply not willing to bet on it.

  14. #824
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubbybear2290 View Post
    Has there been any rumors as to what the Cubs are doing lately? I'm looking at sites like BN and here, but haven't come across much has anyone heard anything from Bystro or Ty?

    Not begging just kinda curious seeing as how I have a boring day till 6 pm when I work and was just curious to see whats up....in them Cubbies world
    Outside of the David DeJesus tidbit yesterday. Not much.

  15. #825
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBears79 View Post
    Outside of the David DeJesus tidbit yesterday. Not much.
    What was the DeJesus tidbit, the fact he might be being shopped? Or a team that might be interested?

    BULLS PLAYOFF PUSH 2014!!

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