2012 Free Agent and Trade Ideas Thread 17

[KyleJRM]

Extremely closely.

We had a net bWAR of 12, and bWAR scales to 52-win replacement level, so 64 wins. We had a pythagorean record of 65 wins and an actual record of 61 wins.

[Rynoplasty]

If you take the bWAR of the cubs players while they were on the team last year, how closely does it relate to the teams actual wins? (if you calculated that)

I would guess the bullpen killed it.

[gaughan333]

Extremely closely.

We had a net bWAR of 12, and bWAR scales to 52-win replacement level, so 64 wins. We had a pythagorean record of 65 wins and an actual record of 61 wins.

Cool, thanks.

[JBears79]

Broken down. I got tired of pasting it in so many different forums and sites so I put it online:

http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com...ersion-10.html

Just read that. I liked most of your support for your reasoning behind a the projection.

Like how you left some upside in Castro, Rizzo and Shark too.

[KyleJRM]

Cool, thanks.

bWAR is nice that way, because it tracks very close to actual run-scoring events and just assigns them to players. For that reason, it's pretty good at describing what happened, but not as good at predicting what will happen in the future.

fWAR, especially for pitchers, is more predictive. If a pitcher gives up 50 runs, but his peripherals said he should have only given up 30 with neutral luck, then fWAR credits him for giving up 30. That makes it very bad at describing what happened, but much better at predicting what will happen in the immediate future.

[Yagyu+]

Evan Grant:

Michael Young... has indicated a willingness to accept a trade that will send him to Philadelphia, according to two major league sources.

The deal, however, is still not finalized because of complications around the amount of money involved. Young is not likely to officially waive his no-trade clause without some sort of compensation. The Rangers must also still gain approval of MLB commissioner Bud Selig due to the large amount of cash (more than $10 million) the Rangers are sending Philadelphia. As with all deals, it would not be official until Young passes a physical for Philadelphia.

[{Ron!n}]

bWAR is nice that way, because it tracks very close to actual run-scoring events and just assigns them to players. For that reason, it's pretty good at describing what happened, but not as good at predicting what will happen in the future.

fWAR, especially for pitchers, is more predictive. If a pitcher gives up 50 runs, but his peripherals said he should have only given up 30 with neutral luck, then fWAR credits him for giving up 30. That makes it very bad at describing what happened, but much better at predicting what will happen in the immediate future.

Is this you by any chance?

http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com...in-infamy.html

[KyleJRM]

It is.

How does this sound for the remaining offseason:

Edwin Jackson for deepen the rotation
Jason Grilli to solidify the bullpen
Ronny Cedeno as the utility infielder (may be tough to convince him he'll get enough playing time)
Andreas Torres as the 5th outfielder/CF platoon partner.

[JBears79]

It is.

How does this sound for the remaining offseason:

Edwin Jackson for deepen the rotation
Jason Grilli to solidify the bullpen
Ronny Cedeno as the utility infielder (may be tough to convince him he'll get enough playing time)
Andreas Torres as the 5th outfielder/CF platoon partner.

I would like it. Still would want a couples trades in their though from a prospect perspective

[homestarunner93]

Is this you by any chance?

http://thecubcontrarian.blogspot.com...in-infamy.html

Obviously it is, and that is one of the dumbest things I've ever read. I feel stupider for having read it.

[KyleJRM]

Yeah, I thought about turning that into a whole half-serious schtick, but I just didn't have the juice to keep it going. Now I just use it as a place to dump the insanely long walls of text I would normally put in message board posts.

[1972 Cubs]

Our starting lineup/rotation if the season started tomorrow...Over/Under 75 wins?

C Castillo
1B Rizzo
2B Barney
SS Castro
3B Stewart...
LF Soriano
CF DeJesus
RF Schierholtz

Garza, Shark, Feldman, Baker, Wood

It would be under because a number of these players will be traded. The real over/under should be how many are traded ? I would set the over/under at 5

[Randall Simon]

It would be under because a number of these players will be traded. The real over/under should be how many are traded ? I would set the over/under at 5

how many did we trade last season?

[KyleJRM]

From our original starting 13? Just four, I think.

[Jack the Ripper]

Who has that much time on their hands? I swear some of you guys care more about WAR and debating off-season moves than actually watching the games.