The Mets Are Not That Far Away

[YoungStuna28]

List of the top hitter prospects going into each season since 2003. See a pattern? Most or all of the top hitting prospects before each season become good-great hitters.

2012
Jurikson Profar
Wil Myers

2011
Mike Trout
Bryce Harper

2010
Mike Stanton

2009
Matt Weiters
Jason Heyward

2008
Jay Bruce
Evan Longoria

2007
Alex Gordon
Delmon Young

2006
Delmon Young
Justin Upton

2005
Joe Mauer
Delmon Young

2004
Joe Mauer

2003
Mark Teixeira
Joe Mauer

Having no MLB experience is a TERRIBLE reason not to trade for someone. Niese and Gee for Wil Myers? Win for the Mets if that ever happened.... but it won't....

And what about Dominic Brown, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider, Cameron Maybin, etc. and even Delmon Young on your own list? No one is a guarantee period, unless you are a generational talent like Harper, Trout, etc.

[metswon69]

Yup. No guarantees there. And yes the rotation has been weakened. But the future lineup has clearly been strengthened. There's a real possibility by 2014 you will be winning that trade.

I think it's at least close enough to debate, which is what makes it at least somewhat realistic.

Yeah but that's under the assumption Myers hits right away after dealing away Niese and Gee for him.

What if he struggles out of the gate and takes longer into his career to start hitting at an elite level?

Not to mention Santana is gone after next season no matter what the circumstances.

In fact i am sure they deal him if he has any trade value at the deadline next year.

So then all of a sudden the 2014 rotation can be a huge issue with limited experience there besides Dickey (if he re-signs)

[YoungStuna28]

Agree. We aren't talking about an unproven prospect here. We're talking a top 5 prospect in all of baseball, who has already mastered AAA at age 21. A guy likely to be an elite player. We're talking about a guy who would have a very real chance, in ten years time, of eclipsing David Wright as the best player in franchise history. For a #3 and #4 SP? Yes, please.

Unfortunately, I think the Royals might want one of Dickey, Wheeler, or Harvey included in that package. They want a top of rotation arm.

Define, "mastered AAA?"

Myers is getting a load of love right now thanks to the PCL.

Just for reference, a look at his Minor League Equivalency Calculator isn't too kind to Myers as it projects to: .255/.317/.443 in the big leagues. He had a 22.3% K rate in AAA so that's a little concerning.

Yes, he would likely improve, but I don't really see a pure star here, and if the Royals are considering trading him, they must feel the same way.

[bklynny67]

And what about Dominic Brown, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider, Cameron Maybin, etc. and even Delmon Young on your own list? No one is a guarantee period, unless you are a generational talent like Harper, Trout, etc.

Before each of the seasons i listed, those were the 1 or 2 top hitting prospects in MLB. And Moustakas just had his first full season and did pretty well and Hosmer was very good in 2011 and still has great potential.

My point is, the top one or two prospects going into each season ALMOST always turn out very good.

Lets just thank god you're not the GM and passed up on a deal of Niese and Gee for Myers.

[bklynny67]

Define, "mastered AAA?"

Myers is getting a load of love right now thanks to the PCL.

Just for reference, a look at his Minor League Equivalency Calculator isn't too kind to Myers as it projects to: .255/.317/.443 in the big leagues. He had a 22.3% K rate in AAA so that's a little concerning.

Yes, he would likely improve, but I don't really see a pure star here, and [B]if the Royals are considering trading him, they must feel the same way

they are just putting out their feelers and letting everyone know, no one is untouchable in the right deal..... Niese and Gee is not close to the right deal for them. They'd laugh at that offer.

[YoungStuna28]

Before each of the seasons i listed, those were the 1 or 2 top hitting prospects in MLB. And Moustakas just had his first full season and did pretty well and Hosmer was very good in 2011 and still has great potential.

My point is, the top one or two prospects going into each season ALMOST always turn out very good.

Lets just thank god you're not the GM and passed up on a deal of Niese and Gee for Myers.

Myers shouldn't have even been on a prospect list this off-season. If he was so special, he should have been in the big leagues already using up rookie eligibility for 2013. They didn't even call him up for September. That is pretty suspicious imo, and maybe that is why they are looking to deal him while he has top value.

I would deal Niese and another prospect for Myers, but I just wouldn't deal both of them in the same deal. I'm higher on Gee than you are obviously, I think he's a nice pitcher. I'm not comfortable destroying 2/5 of the rotation and adding a bunch of question marks in the rotation.

[YoungStuna28]

they are just putting out their feelers and letting everyone know, no one is untouchable in the right deal..... Niese and Gee is not close to the right deal for them. They'd laugh at that offer.

Pretty sure the Angels and Nationals had no thoughts of ever dealing Trout or Harper.

[bklynny67]

Myers shouldn't have even been on a prospect list this off-season. If he was so special, he should have been in the big leagues already using up rookie eligibility for 2013. They didn't even call him up for September. That is pretty suspicious imo, and maybe that is why they are looking to deal him while he has top value.

I would deal Niese and another prospect for Myers, but I just wouldn't deal both of them in the same deal. I'm higher on Gee than you are obviously, I think he's a nice pitcher. I'm not comfortable destroying 2/5 of the rotation and adding a bunch of question marks in the rotation.

So Dillon Gee is the deal breaker for Wil Myers? Wow!

[metswon69]

Yeah Gee had a better FIP and XFIP in 2012 than Niese.

If Niese is automatically a very good number 3 according to most accounts, what does that make Gee if he was statistically the better pitcher?

[YoungStuna28]

So Dillon Gee is the deal breaker for Wil Myers? Wow!

It's hard enough dealing Niese, but Gee as well is too much IN MY OPINION.

Myers is not an established star man. Stop talking like he's a perennial all-star every year already, many highly touted prospects have failed, and I think he's partly a PCL mirage.

That being said, I'd still love to have him, but I think they'd rather look for one front-line arm, rather two of our quality arms. I'd much rather grow our arms internally, and buy our bats.

There is a reason teams shell out big money to average pitchers, it's because pitching is so scarce. Yet, guys like Josh Willingham can be had for 3 years 21 million and give great production.

[acerimusdux]

Define, "mastered AAA?"

Myers is getting a load of love right now thanks to the PCL.

Just for reference, a look at his Minor League Equivalency Calculator isn't too kind to Myers as it projects to: .255/.317/.443 in the big leagues. He had a 22.3% K rate in AAA so that's a little concerning.

Yes, he would likely improve, but I don't really see a pure star here, and if the Royals are considering trading him, they must feel the same way.

His (TB-H)/SO in AAA was (215-118)/118=0.99. That's pretty elite, so I'm not worried about strikeouts. And did you check his MLE for his 1.146 OPS in AA? I'm getting an MLB equivalent OPS of .864 for that (.848 on the Mets). It's not like he only hit in the PCL.

[metswon69]

So Dillon Gee is the deal breaker for Wil Myers? Wow!

He should be when that leaves us possibly Dickey (if he re-signs), Harvey, Wheeler, and then question marks after that.

Mejia and Familia have not shown enough to say they could fill Niese and Gee's spots adequately.

If we want to compete in the next 2 years how do you deal off that much of your rotation?

We will be back to square one again now needing SP in FA or via trade which is more expensive (money and prospect wise)/difficult to find.

[bklynny67]

Yeah Gee had a better FIP and XFIP in 2012 than Niese.

If Niese is automatically a very good number 3 according to most accounts, what does that make Gee if he was statistically the better pitcher?

So FIP and XFIP is all thats used now in determining a better pitcher?

Oh, and Niese started 30 games and 190 innings while Gee started 17 and 109 innings. LOL nice try though.

[YoungStuna28]

His (TB-H)/SO in AAA was (215-118)/118=0.99. That's pretty elite, so I'm not worried about strikeouts. And did you check his MLE for his 1.146 OPS in AA? I'm getting an MLB equivalent OPS of .864 for that (.848 on the Mets). It's not like he only hit in the PCL.

I'm still worried about the strikeouts. I did check, but it's a much smaller sample size compared to his PCL numbers and he repeated AA. He was actually pretty bad in 2011 in AA even though he was 20.

[bklynny67]

He should be when that leaves us possibly Dickey (if he re-signs), Harvey, Wheeler, and then question marks after that.

Mejia and Familia have not shown enough to say they could fill Niese and Gee's spots adequately.

If we want to compete in the next 2 years how do you deal off that much of your rotation?

We will be back to square one again now need SP in FA or via trade which is more expensive (money and prospect wise)/difficult to find.

we aren't winning a WS in the next couple yrs, maybe longer. So Myers at 21 yrs old and his potential is much better for us than Gee.... he won't be that good for many yrs like Myers