What team is the best in the AL East RIGHT NOW?

[bagwell368]

Even with all your starters staying healthy by some miracle, its still a below average rotation. There's a gap between Lester and everyone else. Combine this with a good, but not great offense, and you've got an 80, maybe an 85 win team. I just can't make any realistic case for Boston to finish ahead of New York,Tampa or Toronto.

Agree, except NYY, they have a good chance to really collapse this year.

[Johann]

I just don't get the idea where the Sox rotation is trash, or more so to the fact that it can't be good??

Compared to NY, Toronto, and Tbay, Boston's rotation is simply sub-par.

CC/Kuroda/Pineda/Pettite/Hughes(?)
Dickey/Morrow/Johnson/Buehrle/Romero
Price/Moore/Hellickson/Niemann

vs

Lester/Buchholz/Dempster/Felix

Lester (if he doesn't improve from last year) is likely the worst #1 from the bunch.
I just don't think Dempster improves the rotation all that much to push them ahead of NY.

[Twitchy]

Well if you look at Bill James's projections he is expecting a very solid rotation assuming health.

He is projecting their worse FIP to be Buchholz at 4.01

There's your problem. Don't use Bill James as a projection, because in general they're terrible.

[Jeffy25]

Well if you look at Bill James's projections he is expecting a very solid rotation assuming health.

He is projecting their worse FIP to be Buchholz at 4.01

Yeah....

Then here is the Rays rotation

1. Price - 3.34
2. Moore - 3.32
3. Hellickson - 4.10
4. Cobb - 3.65
5. Archer - 3.40

Yankees

1. Sabathia - 3.16
2. Kuroda - 3.83
3. Pettitte - 3.48
4. Nova - 4.11
5. Hughes - 3.97

Jays
1. Dickey - 3.76
2. Johnson - 3.08
3. Morrow - 3.48
4. Buehrle - 4.10
5. Romero - 4.46

O's
1. Hammel - 4.06
2. Chen - 4.35
3. Arrieta - 4.22
4. Tillman - 4.27
5. Britton - 3.95

I don't need to continue

the point is that every single starter is basically an above league average starter according to Bill James FIP projection.

Again, AL League Average starters (including Red Sox) was 4.37, is Ricky Romero really the only below league average starter in the AL East?

[papipapsmanny]

Recent history.

Buchholz has one elite year, and more that are not.

Lester slipped from his perch

Felix's top appears to be a #4 SP, and he was closer to replacement level last year.

Lackey could eat innings, but at what? a 106 ERA+, or suck, or get hurt...

Dempster is a pro, but no spring chicken

Morales is a decent guy to plug in for injuries, but, more than 12 starts a year is likely not to be good.

At the end of the year this sort of rWAR wouldn't surprise me:

Lester 4.8
Dempster 3.2
Lackey 1.9
Buchholz 1.7
Felix 0.9

You think that's a playoff rotation?

I think you are selling doubront way short. It will be his 2nd full year starting. He was a 2.1 WAR pitcher last year (FG), his K and Walk Rates are very similar to Gio Gonzalez in 2011. Gonzalez pitched more innings and his HR/FB ratio was closer to Normal than Doubronts.

All I am saying is it wouldn't surprise me to see it in the top 5 in the AL, but at the same time it wouldn't surprise me to see it in the bottom 5 either.

I could easily see this happening (as it it wouldn't surprise me)

Using FGs WAR (assuming health)

Lester 5.1 WAR
Doubront 3.5 WAR
Dempster 3.1 WAR
Buchholz 2.8 WAR
Lackey 2.4 WAR

[Halladay]

Agree, except NYY, they have a good chance to really collapse this year.

I've been saying that for years with the Yankees and it never seems to happen. I think their offense collapses completely but their pitching keeps them in the wild card hunt.

[Kenny_Powers]

I think you are selling doubront way short. It will be his 2nd full year starting. He was a 2.1 WAR pitcher last year (FG), his K and Walk Rates are very similar to Gio Gonzalez in 2011. Gonzalez pitched more innings and his HR/FB ratio was closer to Normal than Doubronts.

All I am saying is it wouldn't surprise me to see it in the top 5 in the AL, but at the same time it wouldn't surprise me to see it in the bottom 5 either.

I could easily see this happening (as it it wouldn't surprise me)

Using FGs WAR (assuming health)

Lester 5.1 WAR
Doubront 3.5 WAR
Dempster 3.1 WAR
Buchholz 2.8 WAR
Lackey 2.4 WAR

So you expecting Lester to make a jump from .04 WAR to 5.1 (which would put him 6 best in the AL. Granted, I dont see Boston as bad as some, I think they cold fight for third with Yankees. Just seems like you may have some llofty expectations to me.

[torontosports10]

Well if you look at Bill James's projections he is expecting a very solid rotation assuming health.

He is projecting their worse FIP to be Buchholz at 4.01

That same Bill James guy who is hired by the Red Sox?

[Rio40]

Even with all your starters staying healthy by some miracle, its still a below average rotation. There's a gap between Lester and everyone else. Combine this with a good, but not great offense, and you've got an 80, maybe an 85 win team. I just can't make any realistic case for Boston to finish ahead of New York,Tampa or Toronto.

Your sig is awesome. I don't know what funnier. Thole closing his eyes when catching the ball or the batters facial expression. FILTHY

[Halladay]

Your sig is awesome. I don't know what funnier. Thole closing his eyes when catching the ball or the batters facial expression. FILTHY

Haha yeah it's like watching a lava lamp or a butterfly or something. It's not Thole though it's Nickeas, not that it's important. Gonna be fun watching Dickey. Nobody knows where the ball is going to end up. Tough to get MLB gifs, MLB is hardcore about not allowing clips on the internet.

[Rio40]

Haha yeah it's like watching a lava lamp or a butterfly or something. It's not Thole though it's Nickeas, not that it's important. Gonna be fun watching Dickey. Nobody knows where the ball is going to end up. Tough to get MLB gifs, MLB is hardcore about not allowing clips on the internet.

My bad, yeah I see that now that I clicked it on the larger image. He's a lot of fun too watch and will def be a fan favorite up there. Thats a good example of why the needed experience Knuckleball catchers back in the trade. Catching that must be a *****!

[Halladay]

My bad, yeah I see that now that I clicked it on the larger image. He's a lot of fun too watch and will def be a fan favorite up there. Thats a good example of why the needed experience Knuckleball catchers back in the trade. Catching that must be a *****!

I tell ya, I'm an experienced ball player and I can hit 95MPH fastballs in the cage pretty well but that knuckler coming in at 80 MPH would absolutely baffle me. Just an elite pitch a la Rivera's cutter, Halladays sinker etc. Filthy.

[Yankees90.]

Did we find anymore reasons why the Yankees finish 3rd or 4th yet? Seems like every year we have more of these reasons then we do this year. I'm getting really bored

[treeleaf]

Did we find anymore reasons why the Yankees finish 3rd or 4th yet? Seems like every year we have more of these reasons then we do this year. I'm getting really bored

That sentance was painful to read.

I think the yanks will finish top 3 again personally.

[bagwell368]

I tell ya, I'm an experienced ball player and I can hit 95MPH fastballs in the cage pretty well but that knuckler coming in at 80 MPH would absolutely baffle me. Just an elite pitch a la Rivera's cutter, Halladays sinker etc. Filthy.

On average knuckleballers are quite average in term of results (ERA), but exceptional (at times) in terms of peak years, and peaking at an old age. Knuckleballers tend not to do well in hot weather as well, and of course it's a ***** to catch.