Offensive Rookie of the Year: Luck or RG3?

[ombada]

Lucks defense isn't that bad and deserves a HELL of a lot more credit than they get...their overall ppg against numbers are skewed by a few bad games (41, 35, 59, 33) where they gave up a bunch of points.

In their 10 wins they have only given up an average of 18.5 ppg (for a barometer of how good of play that is, that's equivalent to the 4th best scoring defense in the NFL this season), despite having to deal with a turnover prone offense that is top 10 in the NFL in most turnovers. So essentially, in the collective 10 wins the Colts have, Luck has had top 5 defensuve play helping him out. It's not just Luck putting the team on his back, he's gotten PLENTY of help from his defense in the wins...despite how the lovers try to spin it based on a few bad games.

ok so lets disregard 31st in takeaways, 30th in 3rd down stops, 30th in run D 28th in sacks and 26th in YPG... lets disregard all that because in 10 games we held opponents to 18.5 PPG.

Pertaining to Luck for OROY or how it impacts his stats, having a decent red zone defense (15th) makes no difference. The only thing that impacts is W/L. He is not on the field as often as he should be, our defense struggles to get him the ball.

This is the most important thing about what you pointed out. Lesser teams can walk all over our defense, but we still hold them enough times to FG trys to pull out wins. Better teams break through our defense pretty awful and destroy it putting up big numbers and force Luck and co. to try and throw us out of a deficit.

[Norm]

yes there is plenty to diminish it. the first and foremost problem with your view of things is that a players stats are not impacted by the play of their team. They simply are what they are. This is complete nonsense.

Luck has been hit a league high 97 times. You dont think that factors into INT's and completion percentage? or the fact that he has the worst running game out of the 3 and is forced to pass more often, therefor defenses pull men out of the box to defend said passing game? He has over 900 yards passing more than RG3 and over 1200 yards passing more than Wilson. he has over 200 more attempts than both. He has over 80 completions more than wilson and over 70 more than RG3. None of that has anything to do with completion percentage? or how about the fact that he throws long passes 27.2 percent of the time, which is second in the NFL only to Cutler, compared to wilsons 23.0 % and RG3 18.1%. But that couldnt have anything to do with completion percentage, right?

The fact that his defense isnt good enough to get him the ball on a more consistent basis and has the second worst takeaway count in the NFL has nothing to do with the amount of TD's he has? Its hard to score when your not on the field. Or maybe its the fact that his offensive line has let up the 4th most amount of sacks in the NFL at 40. Maybe that has something to do with drives being killed?

the funny thing is you say stats reflect the player, but are ignoring mass amount of relative stats in the article only to bring up the most basic useless stats as proof of whatever point it is your trying to make. The stats are not lying, and neither are the 7 rookie and 1 all time records he has set in his first year. Or the fact that with an inferior team, proven by the stats you so adore, he has won more games than RG3 and has helped improve his team by 5 games more than Wilson (so far)

Not to mention you know so little about the circumstances of the Colts season last year that YOU fail to bring up that we started 3 different QB's. If Grossman played for us we would still be in the same situation because half of our roster was decimated by injury, including Peyton Manning, Dwight Freeney, Gary Brackett, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai, Melvin Bulitt, Half of our O-line, including Anthony Costanzo, Donald Brown...etc. Too many to list here.

We cut most of those players and are playing more rookies than the skins or the hawks. We have one of the youngest teams in the league. We had no cap space this season. Go ahead, name any of our defensive starters outside of Freeney, Mathis and Davis without looking it up. Name anyone on our O-line. Luck is literally the reason we have been winning and it would take someone who hasnt watched more than the 3 nationally televised games to think that he is having a bad season. He has had an excellent season.

I put that section in bold to explain to you that the author of the article is trying to show the win differential from last year to this year without any major free agent pick ups and one of the youngest teams in the NFL. How can you call what the author is pointing out as circumstantial when all of the the circumstances are explained with statistics? Luck is carrying a team with almost no experience into the playoffs and for you to sit here and try and discredit that with blatant nonfactual opinion and bias is ridiculous.

If we were sitting in a room with these people and I said start naming the Colts players after Freeney, Mathis, Luck, Fleener, Wayne, Hilton....it wouldn't take long. I'd like to hear how many D players they know or OL.

Isn't Justice a starting tackle? I still remember when Osi beat him for like 5 sacks in a game or something and people went on TV and said he was a bum that shouldn't be in the league.

[FortDetroit]

ok so lets disregard 31st in takeaways, 30th in 3rd down stops, 30th in run D 28th in sacks and 26th in YPG... lets disregard all that because in 10 games we held opponents to 18.5 PPG.

Pertaining to Luck for OROY or how it impacts his stats, having a decent red zone defense (15th) makes no difference. The only thing that impacts is W/L. He is not on the field as often as he should be, our defense struggles to get him the ball.

This is the most important thing about what you pointed out. Lesser teams can walk all over our defense, but we still hold them enough times to FG trys to pull out wins. Better teams break through our defense pretty awful and destroy it putting up big numbers and force Luck and co. to try and throw us out of a deficit.

If your defense can hold teams to 18.5 ppg in the majority of the team's games (10/15) despite having a turnover prone offense they are giving the team a great chance to win. Sorry, I know you want to think it was all Luck but in the team's wins his defense played just as big of a part towards the win as the QB did. The defense only giving up 18.5 ppg in those games GAVE Luck the opportunity for all those comebacks, which Luck was able to do a good job of finishing.

The Colts D may not be ready for the big time or be great, but they were just as important to the 10 wins as any other factor on the team. Anytime your offense only has to score like 20 points in a game, you have a great chance to win.

[NateyB24]

If we were sitting in a room with these people and I said start naming the Colts players after Freeney, Mathis, Luck, Fleener, Wayne, Hilton....it wouldn't take long. I'd like to hear how many D players they know or OL.

Isn't Justice a starting tackle? I still remember when Osi beat him for like 5 sacks in a game or something and people went on TV and said he was a bum that shouldn't be in the league.

That doesn't proof anything i bet you a lot of people don't know players on other teams besides there own especially the lesser known under appreciated players.

[Norm]

That doesn't proof anything i bet you a lot of people don't know players on other teams besides there own especially the lesser known under appreciated players.

I'm saying people are going THEIR DEFENSE AIN'T THAT BAD. And that's just based on some stat they googled. They don't know their personnel. Just like they don't watch the Colts and see how Luck carries that entire team on offense.

Even if we submit Luck is the 3rd BEST QB this year for rooks, he still does the most for his team IMO. It's not even close.

I know this isn't MVROY. I know........just saying.


I think Luck is going to open some people's eyes on what he is in the playoffs.

[ombada]

If your defense can hold teams to 18.5 ppg in the majority of the team's games (10/15) despite having a turnover prone offense they are giving the team a great chance to win. Sorry, I know you want to think it was all Luck but in the team's wins his defense played just as big of a part towards the win as the QB did. The defense only giving up 18.5 ppg in those games GAVE Luck the opportunity for all those comebacks, which Luck was able to do a good job of finishing.

The Colts D may not be ready for the big time or be great, but they were just as important to the 10 wins as any other factor on the team. Anytime your offense only has to score like 20 points in a game, you have a great chance to win.

Im not going to disagree with that. What youre saying makes sense, but without watching the games you will never understand where im coming from.

Lets make this simple. If the reason we are behind is the defense, offensive line and lack of a running game, how is it that the defense is 'giving' Luck the opportunity to come back? Thats not whats happening. Luck is bringing us out of early deficits... The defense will then make 1 or 2 timely stops and Luck and the WR's take advantage of the opportunity

This should explain it to you better.

When it comes to the defense having a positive impact on the game, both Griffin and Wilson benefit. Luck does not. Using Pro Football Reference's "expected points" metric, the Seahawks clock in with an impressive +40.04 rating. The Redskins are a less impressive -65.20.

The Colts: -97.63

Before Luck even gets the ball in his hands, he has to contend with the errors of his own defense, which gives up a ton of yards, can't get teams off the field on third down, and can't pressure the opposing team's QB. They have just 28 sacks.

There are more factors than the 1 you pointed out.

[FortDetroit]

I'm saying people are going THEIR DEFENSE AIN'T THAT BAD. And that's just based on some stat they googled. They don't know their personnel. Just like they don't watch the Colts and see how Luck carries that entire team on offense.

Even if we submit Luck is the 3rd BEST QB this year for rooks, he still does the most for his team IMO. It's not even close.

I know this isn't MVROY. I know........just saying.


I think Luck is going to open some people's eyes on what he is in the playoffs.

The defense was very good in the games they won and deserve credit for those games, they were just as important to the win as Luck was. That's all i'm saying. I don't really know how that can disputed.

[ombada]

If we were sitting in a room with these people and I said start naming the Colts players after Freeney, Mathis, Luck, Fleener, Wayne, Hilton....it wouldn't take long. I'd like to hear how many D players they know or OL.

Isn't Justice a starting tackle? I still remember when Osi beat him for like 5 sacks in a game or something and people went on TV and said he was a bum that shouldn't be in the league.

He is at RT. Mike McGlynn has been one of the better additions on the line at RG. Samson Satele, who was playing really well Center, is injured and being replaced by A.Q. Shipley. Anthony Costanzo is at LT and Joe Reitz at LG.

[FortDetroit]

Im not going to disagree with that. What youre saying makes sense, but without watching the games you will never understand where im coming from.

Lets make this simple. If the reason we are behind is the defense, offensive line and lack of a running game, how is it that the defense is 'giving' Luck the opportunity to come back? Thats not whats happening. Luck is bringing us out of early deficits... The defense will then make 1 or 2 timely stops and Luck and the WR's take advantage of the opportunity

This should explain it to you better.



There are more factors than the 1 you pointed out.

A lot of that is nice and all. But 18.5 PPG given up in wins is 18.5 PPG given up in wins. Yards, etc are irrelevant if they still only gave up under 20 in those games. Points against are the bottom line. You know how much I would kill for the Lions to have had a 10 game stretch this season where the defense only gave up 18.5 ppg? Hell, they'd probably have 9 wins or so.

In wins:

Colts - 24.1 PPG scored, 18.5 PPG given up.
Skins - 31.6 PPG scored, 22.4 PPG given up.

RGIII has lead a more productive offense in his wins all while not having as big of a margin of error due to as good of play from his defense.

I guess my only point is, it's not like in his wins he was consistently going out and just outscoring the other team and lighting up the scoreboard because the defense was playing so horrible....but that seems to be the general perception of Luck and how he has gotten all these wins with such a HORRIBLE defense. I mean look at the performance of his defense in some of his wins...13, 13, 10, 13, and 13 points given up. You'd have to have an inept offense on those days to lose those games. Yet we're led to believe that when Luck squeaks out a win with his defense giving up 13 points, it was some amazing/legendary game winning performance by Luck and the offense.

This is 2011 Tebow all over again. Give all the credit to one player and ignore the rest of the team. Just a much more highly skilled and actual good player version of Tebow.

[ombada]

The defense was very good in the games they won and deserve credit for those games, they were just as important to the win as Luck was. That's all i'm saying. I don't really know how that can disputed.

It can be disputed easily, because they werent very good and the Colts are honestly lucky that we played a bunch of sub .500 teams in the middle of the season or else the D would have been exoposed like it was against NE, HOU, NYJ. The Chiefs ran for over 300 yards on us.

I know your probably not reading my posts at this point, or maybe you just dont comprehend what im trying to tell you, but i can assure you one thing. Ive watched every Colts game since 2001, therefor ive seen every game this season. The Colts defense is not good. They are well below average in almost every area of the game and do not have the players to fit the 3-4 style of defense Pagano wants to play. We have CB's that were 4th and 5th string starting and playing nickel on our team. (Cassius Vaughn, Darius Butler) Our defensive line is a bunch of awful players other than Cory Redding (Antonio Johnson, Clifton Geathers). Dwight Freeney is playing out of position and his stats, rather his lack thereof, are actually a good reflection of his play this year. Our starting ILB is injured and Pat Angerer, who is still recovering from a broken foot, is replacing him, with a guy that was a 3rd string LB on the Eagles splitting time with him (Moise Fokou)

This defense is not a good defense. Your view and stinginess pertaining to one stat, that you seem to have fallen in love with, is coming through. There are so many reasons why this group has been pretty bad this year.

[FortDetroit]

I'm not saying it's a good defense by any means. I'm saying it performed well above what one would expect in most of the wins for a defense that is generally considered horrible/terrible.

I don't care if they are a good or bad defense, but fact of the matter is they HAVE PERFORMED WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PPG WISE in most of the wins for the Colts and are just as big of a reason the Colts have won those games as ANYTHING ELSE.

There's absolutely nothing you can say to convince me that the defense holding the opponent to 18 ppg in those games didn't exponentially increase the Colt's chances of winning as opposed to if they had given up like 25 points per game in those games or something like that. Use some logic man. Anytime your defense can hold a team to 20 or below, you have a damn good chance of winning unless you are just a horrible inept offense.

[tripleplay2007]

Russell Wilson

[Norm]

He is at RT. Mike McGlynn has been one of the better additions on the line at RG. Samson Satele, who was playing really well Center, is injured and being replaced by A.Q. Shipley. Anthony Costanzo is at LT and Joe Reitz at LG.

How's Shipley doing? I always thought he could be an okay center when he came out.

[FortDetroit]

BTW, you have no idea what bad defense is. Come watch a Lions game. 34, 24, 34, 35, 27, 38, 31 points (32 ppg average against, Hell the Colts have only scored 30 twice all season) given up in the 7 game losing streak. Willing to bet the Colts wouldn't be 10-5 with consistent defensive play like that, despite Luck the savior being on the team.

[ombada]

A lot of that is nice and all. But 18.5 PPG given up in wins is 18.5 PPG given up in wins. Yards, etc are irrelevant if they still only gave up under 20 in those games. Points against are the bottom line. You know how much I would kill for the Lions to have had a 10 game stretch this season where the defense only gave up 18.5 ppg? Hell, they'd probably have 9 wins or so.



RGIII has lead a more productive offense in his wins all while not having as big of a margin of error due to as good of play from his defense.

I guess my only point is, it's not like in his wins he was consistently going out and just outscoring the other team and lighting up the scoreboard because the defense was playing so horrible....but that seems to be the general perception of Luck and how he has gotten all these wins with such a HORRIBLE defense. I mean look at the performance of his defense in some of his wins...13, 13, 10, 13, and 13 points given up. You'd have to have an inept offense on those days to lose those games. Yet we're led to believe that when Luck squeaks out a win with his defense giving up 13 points, it was some amazing game winning performance by Luck and the offense.

you are seriously not listening to me at all.

RG3 has a running game and an offensive line worth a damn. thats why his teams production is so much higher.

The Colts have a one dimensional offense and some of the worst protection by an offensive line in the NFL (40 sacks 4th in the NFL, 97 hits 1st in the NFL). 9 players have been fined for a total of over 120,000 dollars for hits on Luck. This does not account for how many times hes been hurried. He is not the reason for the offensive ineptitude or low scoring in games. You should see him running out of the pocket to make passes, or being pulled down as he completes a 15 yard pass down field. He is Literally putting up amazing game winning performances.

The defense lets opposing offenses into scoring position. Between 18 and 22 there are 5 teams tied for for allowing 3.3 red zone opportunities to opposing teams. The Colts are sitting at 20th.

Do you understand this? we have been playing crappy offenses!

13 points allowed to the Browns - Red zone scoring % 42.11 - 30th in the NFL

13 points allowed to the Titans - Red zone scoring % 50.00 - 23rd in the NFL

10 points allowed to the Jaguars - Red zone scoring % 42.86 - 28th in the NFL

13 points allowed to the Bills - Red zone scoring % 47.83 - 25th in the NFL

10 points allowed to the Chiefs - Red zone scoring % 28.57 - 32nd in the NFL




Our defense sucks... those offenses just happen to suck worse than our defense. Thats about as simple as i can spell it out for you.