Ok so we have all heard the rumors about Greinke. Reports just came out today that the Angels have dropped out of the race. Basically what it has come down to is the Dodgers (who have a ridiculous amount of money with a new TV deal) and the Rangers. There could also be a dark horse team as we all know, but unlikely just because it looks as though Greinke wants the second largest contract in baseball history for a starter.
From what he is asking for 6 years at $150 million would put him even above the contract Johan Santana signed with the Mets back in 2007 at 6 years $137.5 million.
Now we all know I am a big numbers person, bang for buck, and evaluating value in later parts of the contract versus rookies, and what else the alternative could be for a cheaper replacement.
Santana was a 2 time Cy Young winner, he was also a 3 time All-Star. Also, at the time he signed the contract he was coming fresh off an MVP, the Cy Young, All-Star, and lead the league in both wins, ERA, innings pitched AND strikeouts ALL in the same season. Not a bad contract year.
Greinke, has only had one season in 8 years where he has finished under a 3.47 ERA, in actuality has a 3.77 career ERA. He has never lead the league in another category besides having a 2.19 ERA in his lone CY Young winning season 3 years removed.
So, my question is, in what world does this guy command a $150 million 6 year deal? I know the Dodgers will give it to him, but still? I can't believe he is even able to command that much?
The Rangers need a clear cut starter, but again, is this going to be worth it? Would they not be better off trading for a younger cheaper stud, developing Darvish, Feliz, and Ogando? Maybe look at a Jon Lester or someone?
I am extremely hesitant of where these huge contracts can go. Just ask the Mets about Santana. He looked worth it at the time, with double the stats of Greinke but as it stands now it hasn't made them an elite team. Sabathia has been solid, but worth $30 million a year? Don't even get started on Barry Zito.
Here is an interesting group of analysis looking at the $100+ million contracts for pitchers in MLB history and how they have worked out.
That being said, Hamels was not a $100 million pitcher for the Phillies when they won, and Cain had just signed this year when they won. Other than that, no pitcher on this list has contributed a World Series victory to ANY of their teams. As a matter of fact most of the contracts have ended in dismal failure.