Red Sox discussing Lester for Wil Myers trade

[JMP83]

7 guys since 1988 won Baseball America and USA Today Minor League Player of the Year.

Andruw Jones (1995-96) - meh bat w/o the juice. Great glove
Rick Ankiel (1999) - major head case, but undeniable talent
Josh Beckett (2001) - one great year, two great post seasons, and a bunch of unfullfilled promise
Jeff Francis (2004) - major bust
Jason Heyward (2009) - promising, but not ceiling not clear
Jeremy Hellickson (2010) - very promising, possible multi Cy Young award winner
Wil Myers (2012)

Excepting the last 3 guys, the other 4 will not be going to the HOF, and perhaps none of the second set either.

I know what you're trying to do, but no one's calling him a HOF player, nor does he have to be to be worth 2 years of a declining Lester.

[Bos_Sports4Life]

Well played.

The numbers do not prove that Lester will be a dominant starter. But if you eliminated Salty from his 2011-12 starts and he finished with a mid-4s era last year and high-3s the year before? You wouldn't view Lester one bit like you view him today.

The way I look at it is this..

* He's 1 yr away from REALLY ruining his value. What IF he has another season of a 4 ERA? Talk about what we could get back really decreasing.

* He'll be 31 by the team the sox are likely competitive, But than he'll either go to free agency and walk away with us only getting a late rd pick (if that) OR a 31 yr old lester will sign a lucrative 5 yr deal. A 5 yr deal for a pitcher thats 31? UGH

IMO they should trade him for great value before that time is gone, We had our chance with ellsbury...Will we wait too long with Lester?

[BostonSports96]

Do it

[gustofer1]

The way I look at it is this..

* He's 1 yr away from REALLY ruining his value. What IF he has another season of a 4 ERA? Talk about what we could get back really decreasing.

* He'll be 31 by the team the sox are likely competitive, But than he'll either go to free agency and walk away with us only getting a late rd pick (if that) OR a 31 yr old lester will sign a lucrative 5 yr deal. A 5 yr deal for a pitcher thats 31? UGH

IMO they should trade him for great value before that time is gone, We had our chance with ellsbury...Will we wait too long with Lester?

If he has another bad year, then his FA value will suffer and we can retain him for cheaper? I'd rather keep a mediocre guy who could rebound than trade him for an unproven kid at a position we might like to fill but don't necessarily need to. At least you'll have a veteran pitcher when we might be looking for one to fill a 4th or 5th rotation slot down the road if we traded him. No trades for corner OF'ers unless their name is Stanton.

[-Lavigne43-]

7 guys since 1988 won Baseball America and USA Today Minor League Player of the Year.

Andruw Jones (1995-96) - meh bat w/o the juice. Great glove
Rick Ankiel (1999) - major head case, but undeniable talent
Josh Beckett (2001) - one great year, two great post seasons, and a bunch of unfullfilled promise
Jeff Francis (2004) - major bust
Jason Heyward (2009) - promising, but not ceiling not clear
Jeremy Hellickson (2010) - very promising, possible multi Cy Young award winner
Wil Myers (2012)

Excepting the last 3 guys, the other 4 will not be going to the HOF, and perhaps none of the second set either.

How about just BA's player of the year, since I don't know any excellent prospect guy at USA Today.

2011: Mike Trout
2010: Jeremy Hellickson
2009: Jason Heyward
2008: Matt Wieters
2007: Jay Bruce
2006: Alex Gordon
2005: Delmon Young - the first true bust, though the BB% was a red flag
2004: Jeff Francis - He wasn't that horrible considering where he pitched, but yeah, definitely a disappointment, and his stuff has declined pretty rapidly. He also wasn't even a top 20 prospect
2003: Joe Mauer
2002: Rocco Baldelli - Who knows if he didn't have that disease
2001: Josh Beckett
2000: Jon Rauch
1999: Rick Ankiel
1998: Eric Chavez
1997: Paul Konerko
1996: Andruw Jones
1995: Andruw Jones
1994: Derek Jeter
1993: Manny Ramirez
1992: Tim Salmon
1991: Derek Bell
1990: Frank Thomas

15 of those 21 would be worth it

[Nomar]

I dont really care what a sox rep. said. It's not like he'd come out and say theyre shopping Lester.

[Soxfan85]

Wil Myers Almost a redsox in 2009

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/bos...d-sox-in-2009/ After reading it

[gustofer1]

Wil Myers Almost a redsox in 2009

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/bos...d-sox-in-2009/ After reading it

:cry:

[Bos_Sports4Life]

I'd rather keep a mediocre guy who could rebound

Even if Lester has some more "off seasons" of say 190 IP/4.0 ERA...He'll than get 4+ yrs without a doubt imo. If he rebounds the next 2 seasons? It likely won't matter anyways as far as competing & he'll get a 6 yr deal. Would u want to give a 31 yr old 6 seasons?

The next 2 yrs for lester are almost "wasted yrs"...Than he'll be 31 by the time the sox are in contention anyways, Likely starting his natural decline.

The track record for prospects like Wil Myers are also EXTREMELY good.

[gustofer1]

Even if Lester has some more "off seasons" of say 190 IP/4.0 ERA...He'll than get 4+ yrs without a doubt imo. If he rebounds the next 2 seasons? It likely won't matter anyways as far as competing & he'll get a 6 yr deal. Would u want to give a 31 yr old 6 seasons?

The next 2 yrs for lester are almost "wasted yrs"...Than he'll be 31 by the time the sox are in contention anyways, Likely starting his natural decline.

The track record for prospects like Wil Myers are also EXTREMELY good.

If he pitches well and denies our QO we get a pick, right? If he doesn't pitch great but one of our pitching prospects don't work out, or if Lackey doesn't pan out we have a 5th pitcher that you can trust.

[AuSox]

The reason KC would make this deal is simple, they are desperate. Either they think they are close to competing or Dayton Moore is trying to save his job, either way they are desperately looking for a front of the rotation starter. They have been unable to develop pitching in recent years and it's almost impossible for them to attract top free agents, so their only other option is a trade. Unless TB makes David Price available it looks like Lester is the best guy available. KC already has some offense and they would rather not deal from that MLB offense to acquire pitching. So that leaves Myers, who for most teams would be untouchable, but desperate teams do desperate things.

I do have an issue with the Peter Abraham article. I think he kind of misses the point of trading Lester. It's not about 2013 because I don't think anyone will argue that this trade would make the Red Sox better this season, but we would be better off long term. Offense may not have been the Sox problem in recent years, but with AGon, Youk and Crawford gone and Ortiz coming to the end of his career, how can you know what you are going to get on offense. And Myers isn't you typical prospect, he is the best hitting prospect in baseball and has All Star/MVP type potential. He is a better prospect than anyone the Red Sox have had in the last 10 years. Like all prospects he is somewhat of a risk, but if you are not willing to take chance on this kid you will never want to take a chance on any prospect.

There is one other part of the article I disagree with.

We know what Jon Lester is.

Do we? If we knew what we were going to get out if Lester wouldn't this make this deal a lot easier to make a decision on either way. Just because he is in the majors doesn't mean he is a sure thing, Scott Kazmir, Barry Zito and Francisco Liriano were all top line pitchers at one stage that completely fell off. Nobody in baseball is a sure thing because no matter how many stats you throw out it is still a game played by human beings which can never be fully predicted.

Even if Lester were to pitch up to his potential over the next two years it wouldn't change my mind on this trade. Even with Lester as a #1 this team could still easily finish 4th in the ALE. If he pitches well over the next 2 years he is going to be a 31 year old looking for $100mil contract, which I would be against. If he doesn't pitch well and his extension is reasonable cost, it would have been a huge mistake not to trade him for Myers. So I don't see a reason not to trade him over the next 12 months. If KC offers Myers and a mid level guy or two, I don't think you will find a better deal than that no matter how well he pitches. Forget Mike Stanton, this guy could be just as good in 2 years. He hasn't got quite as much power but is still a 30-40 hr guy. He also has a better hit tool and on-base ability, so I think he has the potential top be a player of comparable value in 2-3 years. Is it a risk? Absolutely, but I think the upside is far greater than the downside.

[gustofer1]

Well said, if they're desperate enough to do it then maybe it's a better move going forward, but I think starting pitching should be our #1 concern. You could say this trade would be my 1a.

In other news; I feel like a waffle today.

[Nomar]

The Peter Abraham article is stupid. I dont know what he's thinking because the Red Sox arent going to the WS in 2013 anyway. I don't think this deal is dead at all either, we just don't want Lester thinking he's getting traded. I still believe this trade would be a risk worth taking.

[-Lavigne43-]

Myers has the most minor league homeruns for a 21 year old since Arlo Engel 1963. I think that the park Ario Engel did it in was tiny too, his numbers on that AA team are ridiculously better than before and after. He's also not the only one with ridiculous numbers there that stick out from the rest of their minor league career, and that teans pitching got destroyed.

[homie564]

I'd take this any day. Myers of course is risky but he has a ceiling of a consistent 5-6+ WAR player