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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bravo95 View Post
    Wouldn't surprise me if the mystery team was the Nats. We know they need a CF and are flirting with Bourn.
    I sure hope you're wrong on this...

  2. #32
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    my guess will be 6 for 85-90. I think if we are in play vs Philly...and we don't want to lose the negotiation (and mlbtraderumors says we are likely to pay more than we had hoped for).....then I would assume 6 yrs would be the deal.

  3. #33
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    Nats priority one is Laroche...they feel they are too right handed if they add Upton. I could see the mystery team as Boston, NYY or LAD. Those are all spenders that haven't been linked yet. TEX has been linked in the past...so they could be the mystery. I think BJ benefits from going East Coast and Nat'l League

  4. #34
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    please do not sign this guy wren. this would be a career-defining mistake for you. This dude strikes out 150 times a season. His OPS hovers around .750 and it has been four seasons since his WAR has reached 3.0. There is a reason the rays have one of the best front office staffs. They dont overspend for overrated players and they draft well, probably with the draft picks they get when other teams give their overrated players bad contracts.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomass View Post
    please do not sign this guy wren. this would be a career-defining mistake for you. This dude strikes out 150 times a season. His OPS hovers around .750 and it has been four seasons since his WAR has reached 3.0. There is a reason the rays have one of the best front office staffs. They dont overspend for overrated players and they draft well, probably with the draft picks they get when other teams give their overrated players bad contracts.
    Understand you concern. TB sucks when it comes to putting together a good linup. BJ had to have un needed pressure to do it all. We are [possibly] getting a guy who can swipe 30+ bags. Give you 20+ HRs and tucked away in the 6 or 7 hole can worry about putting the ball in play and not try to carry the whole offence on his sholders. He will be a welcome addition in my book.
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  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomass View Post
    please do not sign this guy wren. this would be a career-defining mistake for you. This dude strikes out 150 times a season. His OPS hovers around .750 and it has been four seasons since his WAR has reached 3.0. There is a reason the rays have one of the best front office staffs. They dont overspend for overrated players and they draft well, probably with the draft picks they get when other teams give their overrated players bad contracts.
    2007 4.5 fWAR
    2008 5 fWAR
    2009 2.4 fWAR
    2010 4.1 fWAR
    2011 4.1 fWAR
    2012 3.3 fWAR

    So only one time in his career he has failed to get 3 fWAR

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamaj View Post
    I feel that Upton's range is decreasing.
    What makes you feel this way? Defensive metrics seem pretty stable, and there's no reason he should be losing a step at his young age, especially given his outstanding athleticism.

    Quote Originally Posted by ATLKoos16 View Post
    I hope it's no longer than four years. I do hope we get him though.
    If you have average annual value on one hand and years on the other, I'd actually rather give Upton more years. A five-year deal still only carries him through age 32, so a six-year deal really wouldn't be the end of the world either. Some free agents you want to give more money per year and less years, but Upton seems to me like a guy you want to give less per year and more years.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fly View Post
    I'd like to sign him for something like 4/50 or 5/60, and sign Swisher for something similar to what we signed Upton for.
    Upton figures to command way more than that, as does Swisher. Both are likely to be closer to $15 million per year than $12 million, and frankly there's no way they can both fit in the payroll.

    Quote Originally Posted by vtgriff09 View Post
    my guess will be 6 for 85-90. I think if we are in play vs Philly...and we don't want to lose the negotiation (and mlbtraderumors says we are likely to pay more than we had hoped for).....then I would assume 6 yrs would be the deal.
    Actually, it was David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution who said the Braves are likely to pay more than they wanted to, and he said it was just a hunch when asked to make a bold prediction. MLBTR is a great resource, but you HAVE to click through and read the source material. Would not be surprised to see the deal go six years, but I'm hoping they get a discount on the $15 million per year if they add the sixth year. Might have to do both, though, and frankly I'm starting to get worried that—much as I like Upton—the Braves are going to give him too much money.

    Quote Originally Posted by thomass View Post
    please do not sign this guy wren. this would be a career-defining mistake for you. This dude strikes out 150 times a season. His OPS hovers around .750 and it has been four seasons since his WAR has reached 3.0. There is a reason the rays have one of the best front office staffs. They dont overspend for overrated players and they draft well, probably with the draft picks they get when other teams give their overrated players bad contracts.
    The Rays don't spend because they simply don't have the money. If their payroll was $95 million (like the Braves) instead of $70 million, there's a good chance they'd be trying to re-sign Upton. So that's not really a point on which you can judge. Who would you rather see acquired to play center field? I really don't think there's a better option out there, and there are some other good choices. I have no problem with a .750 OPS center fielder who is a threat on the bases and plays great defense, regardless of how many times he strikes out. And that's his FLOOR. His ceiling is...well...he doesn't have one. Even a marginal improvement could give the Braves one of the best center fielders in the game, in his prime years.

    I think Upton is a perfect buy-low candidate because he gets so knocked for what he can't do (like be a once-in-a-generation superstar, as he was once projected to be). Focus on what he CAN do, and there's actually a darn good player there.

  8. #38
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    I think we will sign him for about 13 mil. Maybe 4 years plus a team option, 60mil. I think we will overpay, but thats because the opposition is the phillies. Either way its not 16 mil like bourn is asking. Best thing is Bj hasnt hit his prime. So with a real lineup and hitting coaches, he could really turn it around
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  9. #39
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    I sure hope we are actually this "real lineup" you speak of...Just throwing it out there.

    The Rays sport a .240/.317/.394 line with a .155 ISO, .311 wOBA, 100 wRC+. 697 runs scored

    Bravos 700 runs scored, .247/.320/.389 with a .142 ISO, .310 wOBA, 92 wRC+.

    The argument could be made that they had the better offense and we had more talent. Got to produce..

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by BRAVE KID View Post
    I sure hope we are actually this "real lineup" you speak of...Just throwing it out there.

    The Rays sport a .240/.317/.394 line with a .155 ISO, .311 wOBA, 100 wRC+. 697 runs scored

    Bravos 700 runs scored, .247/.320/.389 with a .142 ISO, .310 wOBA, 92 wRC+.

    The argument could be made that they had the better offense and we had more talent. Got to produce..
    Yes, I meant from a talent standpont
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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by rtgthree View Post
    What makes you feel this way? Defensive metrics seem pretty stable, and there's no reason he should be losing a step at his young age, especially given his outstanding athleticism.
    His Fielding Runs Above Average has gone from 7.8 in 2008 to -2.4 last season (and trending in that direction). His UZR/150 for CF has been dropping. It was 8.4 in 2008 and every year has been lower than the last with last year being -3.2. You credited him with "great" defense, but I'm not sure the Braves can anticipate that based on the way he's trending. Unless you're telling me the Braves are going to surround him with above average defenders (which is the case in RF).

    Kind of seems like another Uggla deal where the buyer sacrifices defense and strikeouts for presumed power (and SBs with the case of Upton (respectable OBP with Uggla)).

    His price tag will really determine how I feel about him. I know the market changes; and $15M/season isn't what it used to be, but I have serious misgivings about offering Upton that much.

  12. #42
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    I really don't think it's going to take 15 mil to sign him. Hopefully I'm right. But if thats the case, its a medium risk high reward if he can play to even 75% of his talent level.
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  13. #43
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    I dont want to see upton in philly with that short porch...

  14. #44
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    Now we MUST get him. If Philly gets him, it hurts double.
    1991 Lost WS to Twins 4-3
    1992 Lost WS to Blue Jays 4-2
    1993 Lost NLCS to Phillies 4-2
    1996 Lost WS to Yankees 4-2 (led 2-0)
    1997 Lost NLCS to Marlins 4-2
    1998 Lost NLCS to Padres 4-2
    1999 Lost WS 4-0 to Yankees
    2000 Lost NLDS 3-0 to Cardinals
    2001 Lost NLCS to Diamondbacks 4-1
    2002 Lost NLDS 3-2 to Giants
    2003 Lost NLDS 3-2 to Cubs
    2004 Lost NLDS 3-2 to Astros
    2005 Lost NLDS 3-1 to Astros
    2010 Lost NLDS 3-1 to Giants
    2012 Lost NLWC 1-0 to Cardinals
    2013 Lost NLDS 3-1 to Dodgers

  15. #45
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    It's a risky move, but I think it's one that we need to make.

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