One of the Biggest Hall of Fame Classes to date: Discussion and vote thread

[Jeffy25]

I'm sure you understand that PED users are not getting the votes they need to get in. First, they cheated. Second, nobody really knows what their numbers would have been without using roids.

PED's will not make a bad hitter an all star. It makes a player stronger. It allows them to play through pain. It adds longevity to a career.

All of the players that have numbers worthy of the hall of fame on the ballot right now, were users. No question about it. So the numbers don't tell the whole truth.

Who would have done what they did had he been clean? Would a player really have played that long? Do players really become an unbelievable player at a time when he should decline or even retire? They just can't be put in.

I know I have parroted it plenty of times.

But how do we know every player on the ballot used? Beyond that being highly cynical, it's also very likely not the case.

You have plenty of players in the MLB that likely never took any PED's, and there is a high chance there are players on this ballot that never used as well.

To say there is no question about it is.....well naive.

[thawv]

I know I have parroted it plenty of times.

But how do we know every player on the ballot used? Beyond that being highly cynical, it's also very likely not the case.

You have plenty of players in the MLB that likely never took any PED's, and there is a high chance there are players on this ballot that never used as well.

To say there is no question about it is.....well naive.

Not all the players on the ballot used. That's just crazy! I'm saying that all the players on the ballot with HOF numbers were users.

Without looking at the guys who are not getting in regardless, because they are irrelevant, who do you think has HOF numbers that you think was 100% legit? And be honest bro. Think with an open mind.

Of course there are many guys on the ballot who even myself think were clean. But they aren't getting in either way.

[Jeffy25]

Not all the players on the ballot used. That's just crazy! I'm saying that all the players on the ballot with HOF numbers were users.

Without looking at the guys who are not getting in regardless, because they are irrelevant, who do you think has HOF numbers that you think was 100% legit? And be honest bro. Think with an open mind.

Of course there are many guys on the ballot who even myself think were clean. But they aren't getting in either way.

Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines, Alan Trammell, Kenny Lofton, Craig Biggio, and possibly guys like Schilling, Walker, Bagwell, Piazza etc as well might have been clean.

[thawv]

Thanks for the follow up. Here's what I think about those. Stepping out for a cigar and some vodka to watch Bama win! Have great night Jeffy!

Edgar: User
Raines: Not a HOF'er
Trammell: Borderline HOF'er, probably clean
Loften: Not a HOF'er
Biggio: User
Schilling: Borderline HOF'er, probably used
Walker: User
Bagwell: User
Piazza: User

The fact that we even have to think twice should tell us something.

[Jeffy25]

Thanks for the follow up. Here's what I think about those. Stepping out for a cigar and some vodka to watch Bama win! Have great night Jeffy!

Edgar: User
Raines: Not a HOF'er
Trammell: Borderline HOF'er, probably clean
Loften: Not a HOF'er
Biggio: User
Schilling: Borderline HOF'er, probably used
Walker: User
Bagwell: User
Piazza: User

The fact that we even have to think twice should tell us something.

I find picking and choosing as a user or not a user is far too difficult, but I will address the 'not a HOF'er' guys

65 rWAR is the 'average hall of famer career rWAR' I'll rank each player by their rWAR and fWAR ranks for their position of all time.
Raines - 70.6 fWAR, 12th all time, everyone ahead of him is in or is named Barry Bonds.

Now of leftfielders that have played at least 1000 games in leftfield, Raines 66.2 rWAR is 5th best of all time, behind Bonds, Williams, Henderson, and Yaz and ahead of Al Simmons and Goose Goslin, Lou Brock and others.

Sounds like an easy hall of famer to me.



Trammell - 69.5 fWAR, 12th all time, everyone ahead of him except for Jeter and A-Rod are currently in.

Of the shortstops with at least 1000 games played, Trammell's 67.1 rWAR is tied for 9th best of all time with Barry Larkin, behind all hall of famers and ahead of several more.


Lofton - 66.2 fWAR, 13th all time. Only guys ahead of him not in are Jim Edmonds, Griffey, Andruw Jones, and Reggie Smith

Where does Lofton's 64.9 rWAR rank among centerfielders? 7th, ahead of Duke Snider and behind only hall of famers like Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, and Ty Cobb. Only one ahead of him not in the hall of fame is Griffey.


Schilling - Greatest K/BB ratio of all time, surprised?

Schilling has a 76.9 rWAR, which is 26th best among all pitchers of all time. An easy hall of famer, by a moon shot. He is just behind Robin Roberts and Nolan Ryan.

Where is he under fWAR? 86.1 fWAR, 17th best of all time between Pedro and Mussina.

Everyone ahead of him on both lists is an easy hall of famer or is well on their way (like Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux)

In a world where the top 70 pitchers of all time are in, I think a borderline top 20 pitcher of all time belongs in as well. He is a very easy choice.

Know how many guys have struck out 3000 and not walked 1000?


4

Fergie Jenkins, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling, and his K/BB is better than them all.



So the guys ahead of this group simply have not qualified yet for the hall of fame. Typically, each position elects the top 15 all time from their position. Rightfielders are the most represented, and third basemen are the least represented, but 15 is about the baseline. If you are a top 15 player at your position all time, at this point, you are deserving of being elected.

And each of these guys is a top 15 player of all time from their position except Schilling who is a top 20 at a much more overloaded position (70 pitchers currently in)


As for who is a user and who isn't, I have no idea. But this class has at least 11 guys that deserve election into the hall of fame based on the barometer of being a top 15 player at their position (the position players that is).

And I'm not trying to preach WAR as everything, but it gives you a really good snap shot of who deserves to be in and who doesn't.


Based on rWAR

This hall of fame class statistically see it as this

The obvious choices:

Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Schilling

The 'yes' but it's not as obvious

Walker, Trammell, Raines, Palmerio

The borderlines

Lofton, Edgar, Biggio, Piazza

And the borderline outs but they deserve a serious look

Sosa, McGwire, McGriff

Everybody else isn't close to deserving statistically

like Murphy, Morris, Wells, Williams, Finely, Mattingly etc.


Now again, this is just based on statistics, and it's using WAR as the first snap shot to dive into. But if we are going to stick by the barometer of the mean on who is currently in. There are 208 former MLB ball players in the hall of fame, 35 Negro Leaguers, 19 managers, 10 umpires, and 28 pioneers/executives.

Of these 208 former big leaguers, 68 of them were pitchers and 140 of them were position players.

8 positions (not including the pitcher) out of 140 that's about 17.5 players per position. A top 15 player at each position at the time of retirement seems like a fair barometer, and a top 70 pitcher seems like a fair placement for pitchers.


fwiw, where do the pitchers place from this ballot in all time rWAR?

Clemens - 3rd
Schilling - 26th
Wells - 81st
Morris - 145th
Smith - 268th
Williams - 322nd
Sele - 569th
Hernandez - 569th
Stanton - 775th
Mesa - 990th


So Schilling and Clemens easily, Wells deserves a thorough look but he is on the outside looking in when you dive deeper into his numbers, and the rest are way short.

This doesn't even broach the subject that I don't agree with your choices on who is actually a user and who isn't.

Now obviously nobody with a vote should be looking at WAR and just deciding. But if you start with WAR and then look at each player more closely from that starting point, you will see how and why each player falls into the categories they do. Catchers aren't treated as fairly by WAR standards, so Piazza isn't ranked highly enough. The same with pitchers, and first basemen probably have too much, same with RFers. So it's a snapshot. But it gives you a good starting point.


While I respect your opinion, I simply do not agree with it.

[-Lavigne43-]

I have not read this thread so I don't know if this has been posted, but this link adds up all the votes for the writers who revealed their choices. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...llecting_gizmo

Right now no one would get in, which would be pretty sad and really screw up the ballet for next year.

Updated 9:45 ~ 124 Full Ballots ~ (21.6% of vote ~ based on last year)

Cooperstown = Ghost town %.

67.7 - Biggio
65.3 - Bagwell
63.7 - J. Morris
62.9 - Raines
62.1 - Piazza
45.2 - Clemens
45.2 - Bonds
37.9 - E. Martinez
37.9 - Trammell
37.9 - L. Smith
37.0 - Schilling
21.8 - D. Murphy
17.7 - McGriff
16.1 - McGwire
16.1 - L. Walker
15.3 - Raffy
15.3 - S. Sosa
8.1 - Mattingly
———————————
2.4 - Lofton
2.4 - P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
1.6 - D. Wells
1.6 - Bernie Williams
0.8 - J. Franco
0.8 - S. Alomar Jr.

[bljay29]

Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Piazza, Raines, McGriff, Walker, Trammel, Bagwell, Palmerio..

[HowFit]

Bonds would have made it without steroids, but because he did use steroids, he should NOT be allowed in. Greedy ****in bastard

My thoughts...

[Yankees90.]

This is Jayson Starks HOF Ballot.....I wanted to puke.

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy.

The ones in bold are the only ones on that list that should get in. I'm sorry, but if we let guys like Morris, Schilling, and Murphy in....then that must be great news for my Yankees...because it means Pettitte and Williams should be in as well. Now, let me see how many of you disagree with that, but agree with Starks picks. Barry Bonds? Anyone who honestly says he didn't use is lying. I lift around people who take steroids, I occasionally train with people who take steroids, I have seen people do steroids. Bonds body, head, and mountain of acne he had on his back is ***** that I see from these roid heads at the gym consistently. Not to mention, shortly after Bonds reportedly started using, his tendon in his elbow blew out. Hmm, wonder why. I mean, the guy was such a horse and all of a sudden, boom. I loved Barry I really did, but if you cheated, you cheated. Same goes for A-Rod too, he SHOULD be in, but no. He cheated and that's that. (So you guys don't think I am biased)

I'm starting to hate awards in every sport. Just saw the World XI team in soccer and i literally

[getfoul]

I'm going "Big Hall". Here's who I would add of players that debuted 1947-1984:

I picked undervalued players, great players with shorter peak greatness, some compilers, and a couple players that were injury-plagued but made a big impact on the game with postseasons or long-standing records:
1947- Gil Hodges (had one game in 1943 and went to military service)
1949- Minnie Minoso, Don Newcombe
1955- Ken Boyer, Rocky Colavito
1957- Roger Maris
1959- Jim Kaat
1960- Joe Torre
1962- Tony Oliva
1963- Pete Rose, Dick Allen, Tommy John
1964- Luis Tiant
1968- Bobby Bonds, Ted Simmons
1969- Thurman Munson, Steve Garvey
1972- Dwight Evans
1973- Dave Parker
1974- Keith Hernandez, Fred Lynn
1975- Ron Guidry
1976- Dale Murphy
1977- Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Jack Morris
1979- Tim Raines, Kirk Gibson
1982- Don Mattingly
1983- Orel Hershiser
1984- Bret Saberhagen

As a White Sox fan, I couldn't bring myself to put in Harold Baines. Couldn't do it.

When you look at the players that debuted in 1986 and on, it's just obvious that something happened. So if Sosa, McGwire, Sheffield, and later on Carlos Delgado and Bobby Abreu get in, then they should let in more players from the past.

[Jeffy25]

I have not read this thread so I don't know if this has been posted, but this link adds up all the votes for the writers who revealed their choices. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...llecting_gizmo

Right now no one would get in, which would be pretty sad and really screw up the ballet for next year.

Updated 9:45 ~ 124 Full Ballots ~ (21.6% of vote ~ based on last year)

Cooperstown = Ghost town %.

67.7 - Biggio
65.3 - Bagwell
63.7 - J. Morris
62.9 - Raines
62.1 - Piazza
45.2 - Clemens
45.2 - Bonds
37.9 - E. Martinez
37.9 - Trammell
37.9 - L. Smith
37.0 - Schilling
21.8 - D. Murphy
17.7 - McGriff
16.1 - McGwire
16.1 - L. Walker
15.3 - Raffy
15.3 - S. Sosa
8.1 - Mattingly
———————————
2.4 - Lofton
2.4 - P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
1.6 - D. Wells
1.6 - Bernie Williams
0.8 - J. Franco
0.8 - S. Alomar Jr.

I'm gonna be pissed if Lofton doesn't get 5%

[Jeffy25]

This is Jayson Starks HOF Ballot.....I wanted to puke.

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy.

The ones in bold are the only ones on that list that should get in. I'm sorry, but if we let guys like Morris, Schilling, and Murphy in....then that must be great news for my Yankees...because it means Pettitte and Williams should be in as well. Now, let me see how many of you disagree with that, but agree with Starks picks. Barry Bonds? Anyone who honestly says he didn't use is lying. I lift around people who take steroids, I occasionally train with people who take steroids, I have seen people do steroids. Bonds body, head, and mountain of acne he had on his back is ***** that I see from these roid heads at the gym consistently. Not to mention, shortly after Bonds reportedly started using, his tendon in his elbow blew out. Hmm, wonder why. I mean, the guy was such a horse and all of a sudden, boom. I loved Barry I really did, but if you cheated, you cheated. Same goes for A-Rod too, he SHOULD be in, but no. He cheated and that's that. (So you guys don't think I am biased)

I'm starting to hate awards in every sport. Just saw the World XI team in soccer and i literally

Again, what's wrong with Curt Schilling?

[-Lavigne43-]

I'm gonna be pissed if Lofton doesn't get 5%

He probably won't. He just doesn't have that perception of a star player. The people who would vote for him used their 10 votes for other players.

12 more ballots from last night

Updated 4:00 AM ~ 136 Full Ballots ~ (23.7% of vote ~ based on last year)

Cooperstown = Ghost town? %.

69.8 - Biggio
64.7 - J. Morris
63.2 - Raines
62.5 - Bagwell
60.3 - Piazza
43.4 - Clemens
43.4 - Bonds
39.7 - L. Smith
38.2 - Trammell
38.2 - E. Martinez
36.8 - Schilling
22.8 - D. Murphy
19.1 - McGriff
16.2 - L. Walker
15.4 - S. Sosa
14.7 - McGwire
14.7 - Raffy
8.8 - Mattingly
———————————
2.2 - Lofton
2.2 - P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
1.5 - D. Wells
1.5 - Bernie Williams
0.7 - J. Franco
0.7 - S. Alomar Jr.

Biggio is close, but I don't think he gets in until next year. Too many people who wouldn't want him to be first ballot. Morris is going to get a sizable percentage bump from the people who don't share, but I think he will only get to around 70%. I don't think Raines or Bagwell will increase, their prime supporters are people who reveal their vote. Piazza is a darkhorse, but I doubt it. I can't believe he has not gotten more support. No one else has a chance.

[Jeffy25]

If Morris is the only one that gets in this year (somehow) I will ****ing rage.

And this entire process is a 100% absolute ****ing joke. He is one of the worst performers on this ballot.


I would LOVE to see anyone explain to me how Morris is deserving, but Curt Schilling isn't.

[Havoc Wreaker]

This is Jayson Starks HOF Ballot.....I wanted to puke.

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy.

The ones in bold are the only ones on that list that should get in. I'm sorry, but if we let guys like Morris, Schilling, and Murphy in....then that must be great news for my Yankees...because it means Pettitte and Williams should be in as well. Now, let me see how many of you disagree with that, but agree with Starks picks. Barry Bonds? Anyone who honestly says he didn't use is lying. I lift around people who take steroids, I occasionally train with people who take steroids, I have seen people do steroids. Bonds body, head, and mountain of acne he had on his back is ***** that I see from these roid heads at the gym consistently. Not to mention, shortly after Bonds reportedly started using, his tendon in his elbow blew out. Hmm, wonder why. I mean, the guy was such a horse and all of a sudden, boom. I loved Barry I really did, but if you cheated, you cheated. Same goes for A-Rod too, he SHOULD be in, but no. He cheated and that's that. (So you guys don't think I am biased)

I'm starting to hate awards in every sport. Just saw the World XI team in soccer and i literally

So...Bonds should not go in because he used roids but Clemens is fine?