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Thread: Ware vs spencer

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  1. #32
    Join Date
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    Blacknell I apologize for the incorrect figures so allow me to post an update; i will go back and edit the original post after this one:


    Fact # 1
    Season: (Sack total)/first 11 games
    2005 - 8 / 4
    2006 - 11.5 / 6
    2007 - 14 / 8
    2008 - 20 / 12
    2009 - 11 / 8
    2010 - 15.5 / 9.5
    2011 - 19.5 / 14

    Total - 99.5 / 61.5

    Average - 14 / 8.8

    So, Ware over the 1st 11 games of 2012 has 10 sacks (some sites claim 10.5, but for the sake of argument I'll say 10). His average should be 8.8, yet he's already 1.2 sacks ahead of his average. The correction that Blacknell pointed out actually makes this fact even more beneficial to my point.

    Fact #2
    Now in 5 of those seasons Ware had less than his career average by the first 11 games. Even though the averages would have been different at the times the games were played, an overall view illustrates that Ware has had the majority of his seasons under his average by the first 11 games. We can clearly see that on 2 "freak" seasons he had tremendous numbers. Again nothing shows the decline of Ware. We see that in 2008 Ware had only 2 more sacks at this point in the season than his current mark and went on to have his best season.

    Blacknell is obviously using the 2008 and 2011 seasons as his benchmarks to define Ware's impact. He's cherry picking Ware's best season's to make his point. Ironically by his definition of Ware's 19.5 sacks being the benchmark we should have traded him after 2009 when he only had 11 total sacks. Yet Ware came back in 2010 with 15.5 then jumped an additional 4 in 2011 to 19.5. If we traded Ware in 2009 because he was under 19.5 sacks he never would have accumulated 19.5 sacks in 2011 as a Cowboy. Again more proof of embellishment.

    Fact #3
    Ware's average over the first 11 games of a season is no longer 11.5 due to the correction blacknell pointed out, but now 8.8. Ware in 2012 has 10 sacks, more than his average, yet Blacknell insists Ware is in decline. So even when Ware is ahead of his own curve, based solely on math he's in decline, according to Blacknell's theory.

    Fact #4
    Ware averages 14 sacks per season. In 2012 he has 10 with 5 games to go. Ware still averages less than 1 sack per game (actually .78). If we have 5 games left and you multiply the 5 games by Ware's single game average you'll get 3.9. Take his current sack number and add it to his single game average.

    Current Sack Total + Total Sum of Single Game Average of games not yet played = Projected end of the season total
    10 + 3.9 (found by taking game average x games left) = 13.9

    Ware's single season sack average is 14. So even if Ware just play's his average style of play (which by his stats he's currently ahead of the mark) he'll clearly hit his average, yet to Blacknell this is a decline.

    Now I do apologize for the original incorrect data, but the correction pointed out by Blacknell actually makes my point even stronger.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.co...W/WareDe99.htm
    http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/.../demarcus-ware

    During his first seven seasons, Ware amassed 99.5 sacks. The current career sack leader, Bruce Smith, only had 78 sacks through his first seven season, and Reggie White had a monstrous 110 sacks through his first seven seasons.
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...er-sack-leader
    Last edited by thedon01; 11-30-2012 at 02:26 AM.

    "
    No Idea Why Ines Sainz Was Her assed"

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