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  1. #1
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    Some Relevant Alex Smith Numbers

    Since Jim Harbaugh and staff arrived, Alex Smith's 49ers have only gone to the locker room at halftime trailing in 5 regular season games. Naturally, these are games the team had a pass-first approach during the 2nd half. Check out the pass/run ratio during the 2nd half of the Minnesota and New York losses this year. It's great to be safe and efficient when you are leaning on the run game and defense, and often playing with a lead. But when you're trailing at halftime, you need your QB to stand up and say: "I got this, guys". And produce. You won't win them all... but it usually takes more than "safe" to win when your team needs you.

    In Alex's defense....they had an impressive come from behind win @ Phili in week 4. But the other four games in question (as I highly doubt Alex fans want me to explore his stats in this area before 2011)... He put up a line of:

    avg drops by almost 2 yards/att, 1TD, 5INTs, 65.3 passer rating.


    -This guy will only be able to ride the coattails of that Saints playoff win for so long. And frankly, that team is not in position for heroics in the first place if the defense doesn't force 5 turnovers.

    -Don't even talk Detroit game. The running backs marched them down the field. He completed 2 passes for 10 yards on that "Clutch! Clutch!" game winning drive. Outside of that drive....Smith had a 47.3 passer rating for the day.

    Again, I will give him/them the Eagles game. But as I said before: I've seen Mark Sanchez put a team on his back more often than Alex.


    The guy plays to not lose. That's terrific when your D and Run game is dominant. But if they're less than dominant, you need to rely on your QB to step up. Is that guy really going to be Alex Smith??

  2. #2
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    Of course it's easy to make someone look worse than they really are by pointing out the negative numbers. I'm not saying Smith is great or anything, but there are always going to be negative statistics in certain areas for every QB. He's not great, but he's certainly better than what you think he is. To answer your question about relying on a QB to step up....isn't that what the 49ers had Smith do in the playoffs....twice in the final 4 minutes when the defense was "less than dominant" by giving up 2 touchdowns to Brees? Didn't they need Smith to put the team on his back? And how'd that turn out?

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    Quote Originally Posted by tapajafri View Post
    Of course it's easy to make someone look worse than they really are by pointing out the negative numbers. I'm not saying Smith is great or anything, but there are always going to be negative statistics in certain areas for every QB. He's not great, but he's certainly better than what you think he is. To answer your question about relying on a QB to step up....isn't that what the 49ers had Smith do in the playoffs....twice in the final 4 minutes when the defense was "less than dominant" by giving up 2 touchdowns to Brees? Didn't they need Smith to put the team on his back? And how'd that turn out?
    Let me reply by just copy and pasting something that was written in the original post...

    "-This guy will only be able to ride the coattails of that Saints playoff win for so long. And frankly, that team is not in position for heroics in the first place if the defense doesn't force 5 turnovers. "

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hiker View Post
    Let me reply by just copy and pasting something that was written in the original post...

    "-This guy will only be able to ride the coattails of that Saints playoff win for so long. And frankly, that team is not in position for heroics in the first place if the defense doesn't force 5 turnovers. "
    Of course you're going to say that, because he's only been on one playoff team. He's only been to the playoffs once. If the 49ers are deep in the playoffs this year, he could do it again. And in the playoffs, I'd rather have a proven consistent winner that has playoff experience over a 2nd year QB with hardly any starting experience, especially if they have to go on the road to the likes of Atlanta. You say he can only ride the coattails of the saints playoff game, well how do you know he wouldn't do it again in the future if he's playing in the playoffs? You can't say someone will only be based off one playoff when he's only been to one playoff. Just accept the fact that he's not as bad as you're trying to make him sound. He's certainly not as good as his #1 ranked completion % and top 3 QB rating make him look, but he's also not as bad as you're trying to make him sound. He's a solid QB, nothing spectacular or great, but not bad.

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    nice post OP. putting into statistical form what most of have realized about his limitations.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by tapajafri View Post
    Of course you're going to say that, because he's only been on one playoff team. He's only been to the playoffs once. If the 49ers are deep in the playoffs this year, he could do it again. And in the playoffs, I'd rather have a proven consistent winner that has playoff experience over a 2nd year QB with hardly any starting experience, especially if they have to go on the road to the likes of Atlanta. You say he can only ride the coattails of the saints playoff game, well how do you know he wouldn't do it again in the future if he's playing in the playoffs? You can't say someone will only be based off one playoff when he's only been to one playoff. Just accept the fact that he's not as bad as you're trying to make him sound. He's certainly not as good as his #1 ranked completion % and top 3 QB rating make him look, but he's also not as bad as you're trying to make him sound. He's a solid QB, nothing spectacular or great, but not bad.
    Consistent proven winner? Take this guys first 6 years, and instead of Harbaugh retaining him... send him to another team. Almost any other team other than the Niners.

    This is a team that rarely has to ask Smith to do much more than safely dink and dunk. When they have had to lean on him, he's been less than stellar. The Saints game was an outlier.

    What aspect of Alex Smith's game are defenses forced to be honest to?

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hiker View Post
    Since Jim Harbaugh and staff arrived, Alex Smith's 49ers have only gone to the locker room at halftime trailing in 5 regular season games. Naturally, these are games the team had a pass-first approach during the 2nd half. Check out the pass/run ratio during the 2nd half of the Minnesota and New York losses this year. It's great to be safe and efficient when you are leaning on the run game and defense, and often playing with a lead. But when you're trailing at halftime, you need your QB to stand up and say: "I got this, guys". And produce. You won't win them all... but it usually takes more than "safe" to win when your team needs you.

    In Alex's defense....they had an impressive come from behind win @ Phili in week 4. But the other four games in question (as I highly doubt Alex fans want me to explore his stats in this area before 2011)... He put up a line of:

    avg drops by almost 2 yards/att, 1TD, 5INTs, 65.3 passer rating.


    -This guy will only be able to ride the coattails of that Saints playoff win for so long. And frankly, that team is not in position for heroics in the first place if the defense doesn't force 5 turnovers.

    -Don't even talk Detroit game. The running backs marched them down the field. He completed 2 passes for 10 yards on that "Clutch! Clutch!" game winning drive. Outside of that drive....Smith had a 47.3 passer rating for the day.

    Again, I will give him/them the Eagles game. But as I said before: I've seen Mark Sanchez put a team on his back more often than Alex.


    The guy plays to not lose. That's terrific when your D and Run game is dominant. But if they're less than dominant, you need to rely on your QB to step up. Is that guy really going to be Alex Smith??
    This is what I mean by you can make someone look worse than they really are by pointing out the negatives and ignoring the positives. You said that Smith only completed 2 passes for 10 yards on that play. You're making it seem like the drive was a 70 yard drive for the win and Smith only was 2/2 for ten yards. Tell the whole story and quit leaving out facts. Cut the manipulation. If you were unbiased, you would have pointed out that on that last drive, Ted Ginn had a punt return that went all the way to Detroit's 35 yard line. Well, truth of the matter is, when you have to go 35 yards and your RB's bust out 3 gains of 10 yards, you're basically inside the 10 yard line already. Then, one of the 2 passes he completed on that drive, one was for the win on 4th and goal, on the road. I'm not saying anything was spectacular or shows he's some great QB, but you need to tell the entire story and present all the facts. My original point was that it's easy to make someone look bad when you only point out certain things and they're negative. He's not a great QB or anything, but he's just not as bad as you think he is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hiker View Post
    Consistent proven winner? Take this guys first 6 years, and instead of Harbaugh retaining him... send him to another team. Almost any other team other than the Niners.

    This is a team that rarely has to ask Smith to do much more than safely dink and dunk. When they have had to lean on him, he's been less than stellar. The Saints game was an outlier.

    What aspect of Alex Smith's game are defenses forced to be honest to?
    Yes, he's a constant proven winner with a 20-6 record since Harbaugh took over. Steve Young even said himself that anyone using Smith's first 6 years to define him as a player is just the wrong thing to do because pre-2011 Smith is a totally different player than 2011+ Smith. Anything before 2011 is irrelevant. You don't judge on the past, especially when a drastic change came along to shape the present. And you know better than that. I'll say it again so I can be as clear as possible to you.... I'm NOT saying Smith is a great QB. I'm not saying he's even that good. I'm just saying he's a serviceable QB that is better than what you think he is.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by tapajafri View Post
    This is what I mean by you can make someone look worse than they really are by pointing out the negatives and ignoring the positives. You said that Smith only completed 2 passes for 10 yards on that play. You're making it seem like the drive was a 70 yard drive for the win and Smith only was 2/2 for ten yards. Tell the whole story and quit leaving out facts. Cut the manipulation. If you were unbiased, you would have pointed out that on that last drive, Ted Ginn had a punt return that went all the way to Detroit's 35 yard line. Well, truth of the matter is, when you have to go 35 yards and your RB's bust out 3 gains of 10 yards, you're basically inside the 10 yard line already. Then, one of the 2 passes he completed on that drive, one was for the win on 4th and goal, on the road. I'm not saying anything was spectacular or shows he's some great QB, but you need to tell the entire story and present all the facts. My original point was that it's easy to make someone look bad when you only point out certain things and they're negative. He's not a great QB or anything, but he's just not as bad as you think he is.
    OK...I'll "Cut The Crap" and tell the whole story....

    Alex Smith threw a 6 yard touchdown pass on a short field in that game. It raised his passer rating from 47 to 60. If it was a hockey game, he was the #1 star.

    I said "Dont talk Detroit Game" because it is often pointed out as an example of Smith getting it done. Smith was putrid that game, averaging less than 4 yards/attempt, but it's talked about like heroics.

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    This game by Colin has brought so much stress between the 49er fanbase it is unfathomable, this is greater than Smith Vs Hill, or Hill vs O'Sullivan.. And i pity past self...


    True MVP 49ers 2012

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hiker View Post
    OK...I'll "Cut The Crap" and tell the whole story....

    Alex Smith threw a 6 yard touchdown pass on a short field in that game. It raised his passer rating from 47 to 60. If it was a hockey game, he was the #1 star.

    I said "Dont talk Detroit Game" because it is often pointed out as an example of Smith getting it done. Smith was putrid that game, averaging less than 4 yards/attempt, but it's talked about like heroics.
    Right, he was putrid. I mean considering the fact that the offensive line did a horrible job protecting him that game, especially with that crowd noise. And because Smith isn't this great QB, if the line isn't protecting, he's going to struggle. It's a team game. I like how you're still one of those few fans that pins ALL the blame on Smith. It's a team game dude. Smith had a below average game in Detroit, but some credit has to be given to the lions defense, and some blame has to go to the line for giving up numerous sucks. He's just not as bad as you think he is, whether you like it or not. He's an above average QB, solid in some areas and weak in others. But he's certainly not as bad as you think he is, and that's a fact, not an opinion. Case closed.

  12. #12
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    Excellent post.

    Kaepernicks ascension to starting QB reminds me of when Roethlisberger took over for Tommy Maddox. Maddox being injured led to an unproven young QB from a small college taking over a very good team. The team had a good run game, good defense and eventually won the Superbowl the next year with the "unproven" QB. Not saying the 49'ers will win, but Colin Kaepernick is not only the "future", but is the best option for the here and now.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by tapajafri View Post
    I'm NOT saying Smith is a great QB. I'm not saying he's even that good. I'm just saying he's a serviceable QB that is better than what you think he is.
    OK - you're not getting this.

    For the 2nd year in a row, this team is a conference leader whose goal is advancing to the Superbowl.

    "Serviceable" isn't going to cut the mustard if you're playing a good team in a big spot and your opponent bottles up your run game, and scores 24 or 27 on your D.

    By sticking with Alex Smith....your faith is in the D and the run game.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hiker View Post
    OK - you're not getting this.

    For the 2nd year in a row, this team is a conference leader whose goal is advancing to the Superbowl.

    "Serviceable" isn't going to cut the mustard if you're playing a good team in a big spot and your opponent bottles up your run game, and scores 24 or 27 on your D.

    By sticking with Alex Smith....your faith is in the D and the run game.
    I'm sorry but did Dilfer or Johnson ever lead the league in completion % or have the third highest qbr in the league?

    Do you realize that Smith was a special teams play away from getting to the superbowl?

    Do you realize that Smith has IMPROVED his play this year while special teams and defense have both taken a step back this year?

    Do you realize that last year was all under the first year of a offensive scheme while he had great recievers like that the all mighty Brett Swain and Kyle Williams?

    It was pretty highly regarded that NO was the best team in the league last year and Smith outgunned them with the masterful Brett Swain recieving his throws.


    True MVP 49ers 2012

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    Quote Originally Posted by tapajafri View Post
    Right, he was putrid. I mean considering the fact that the offensive line did a horrible job protecting him that game, especially with that crowd noise. And because Smith isn't this great QB, if the line isn't protecting, he's going to struggle. It's a team game. I like how you're still one of those few fans that pins ALL the blame on Smith. It's a team game dude. Smith had a below average game in Detroit, but some credit has to be given to the lions defense, and some blame has to go to the line for giving up numerous sucks. He's just not as bad as you think he is, whether you like it or not. He's an above average QB, solid in some areas and weak in others. But he's certainly not as bad as you think he is, and that's a fact, not an opinion. Case closed.

    That Kool-Aid is delicious isn't it??

    The win over the Saints is an example of him putting the team on his back. But when he underperforms... well how about his teammates underperformning, how about we credit the Lions D? OK...how about instead of crediting Smith on that Saints drive...let's discredit New Orleans' D?? Just stop.

    You want to talk sacks??

    The 49ers have 2 pro-bowlers (Staley, Iupati), a future pro-bowler (Davis), and a respected veteran (Goodwin) on their offense line....and yet Smith has been sacked on 10% of his dropbacks. With the exception of Cutler at 9.8 (And the Bears have O-Line issues)...it is FAR AND AWAY the highest sack rate of any contending team. 11 of the 17 teams entering this week at .500 or better are sacked at a rate of less than 6% of their dropbacks. 5 of them are under 4%.

    When Kaep came in and played an aggressive Bears D...a team that gets to the QB often...he was sacked 1 time in 26 dropbacks... that, too, is less than 4%.

    Is it the lines fault EVERY game? And only when Smith is in?? They must hate him...

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