Why Tom Brady is the MVP

[PatsSoxKnicks]

and why its really not that close....

I'm going to provide a statistical case for why Brady is your MVP and here's the interesting thing, when you start adjusting for opponent, its not that close.

First, I would like to point out that when you are looking at QB statistics, numbers like passer rating, completion % etc. are rather irrelevant because the POINT of an offense is to score points. I think everyone would agree with that. Or at least I would hope they do. If you don't, then I would re-think the way you look at football. After all, the goal is to outscore the opposition. Scoring points will increase your chances of winning, just like allowing less points will also increase your chances of winning.

So with that said, the first point in Brady's favor is that he currently leads the #1 offense in the league, which happens to be averaging 37 points per game. That would translate to 592 points scored on the season, which would break the single season record for points scored, surpassing that 2007 team.

However, we need to examine this further. Another important aspect of the MVP award is how much you contribute to your teams chances of winning. Because of the Patriots less than stellar defense, the offense is always under pressure to score (I think we all know this...). One aspect that Peyton has going for him is Denver's defense, which has been very good this year. The Broncos offense is not under pressure to score on every drive because their defense isn't giving it up every drive. One way to measure this is by looking at Win Probability Added.

Here is a link to explaining the stat:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...explained.html

Here is another important stat that is important to measuring QB play:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...ed-points.html

In EPA, you aren't looking at the situation of the game, rather you're looking at how the offense does on each drive. How many points are they expected to score based on each play. A team that moves the ball up and down the field through the air and converts 3rd downs which lead to points, will rank among the leaders in EPA.

So how does Tom Brady rank in both?
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB

He ranks #1 in the league in EPA. He is also #1 in the league in EPA/P which is EPA per play. So he's got the cumulative value and the best rate value (EPA/P). He is also #1 in the league in Success Rate, which measures the % of plays where you add +ve EPA.

(For more on that, check out these 2 articles/glossary page:
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/08/glossary.html
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...cess-rate.html)

He's #2 in WPA, trailing Matt Ryan by just 0.06. Both Ryan and Brady are well ahead of the rest of the pack. So only the Falcons have had to rely on Ryan to win games more than Brady. However, here's an important aspect to consider: this is not opponent adjusted. Ryan has faced a fairly easy slate of pass defenses this year, with the exception of the Broncos (who Brady has also faced).

So how about looking at some opponent adjusted stats?

Well over at Football Outsiders, they calculate a stat similar to EPA called DVOA.

(For an explanation of how they calculate it: http://footballoutsiders.com/info/methods)

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Brady ranks #1 in the league in both DYAR and DVOA, which are both opponent adjusted (and for what its worth, he also ranks #1 in YAR). And here's the interesting thing: he has a pretty decent sized lead on Peyton in both categories. He has accumulated about 250 more DYAR and has about an 8% point lead in DVOA over Peyton. If you look at the whole table, thats a pretty decent sized lead in comparison to how the rest of the QBs are tightly bunched with the exception of Peyton.

We can also look at Total QBR, which is also based on the Expected Points model and also combines Win Probability Added into it. While I know many don't like the stat, I think its a pretty decent stat if you really dig into it. Many don't like the clutch weighted aspect but that is capped so you are only adding at most 3x the EPA in the 4th quarter vs. any other regular play. Anyways, I'm providing it. If you don't buy into the stat, there's the 2 stats above that point to Brady's case for MVP.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

Again, Brady ranks #1 in the league. He is also #1 in QB PAR (Points Above Replacement) and QB PAA (Points Above Average). He is 2nd (slightly behind) Matt Ryan in Total EPA. But again, we need to consider the defenses each have faced.

I calculated an opponent adjusted QBR for each of the 4 MVP candidates. The results are below:

Tom Brady:

date	        team	opp	score	ActPl	QBR	def QBR	diff	weighted
2012 - W11	NE	vs IND	W 59-24	36	93.942	62.531	31.411	1130.779
2012 - W10	NE	vs BUF	W 37-31	44	87.542	69.115	18.427	810.783
2012 - W08	NE	@ STL	W 45-7	41	98.362	60.141	38.220	1567.038
2012 - W07	NE	vs NYJ	W 29-26	49	72.093	56.964	15.129	741.299
2012 - W06	NE	@ SEA	L 23-24	61	72.010	49.127	22.883	1395.892
2012 - W05	NE	vs DEN	W 31-21	44	82.133	28.840	53.294	2344.918
2012 - W04	NE	@ BUF	W 52-28	38	96.519	69.115	27.403	1041.322
2012 - W03	NE	@ BAL	L 30-31	52	86.212	44.796	41.416	2153.636
2012 - W02	NE	vs ARI	L 18-20	55	30.620	43.316	-12.696	-698.281
2012 - W01	NE	@ TEN	W 34-13	33	90.443	70.145	20.299	669.855
								
Totals				453	81.6		        255.785	11157.241
							        25.579	24.630

Peyton Manning:

date	        team	opp	score	ActPl	QBR	def QBR	diff	weighted
2012 - W11	DEN	vs SD	W 30-23	49	31.694	60.081	-28.388	-1390.993
2012 - W10	DEN	@ CAR	W 36-14	43	78.574	61.232	17.343	745.739
2012 - W09	DEN	@ CIN	W 31-23	38	94.709	58.309	36.400	1383.197
2012 - W08	DEN	vs NO	W 34-14	35	96.267	67.408	28.859	1010.071
2012 - W06	DEN	@ SD	W 35-24	37	73.392	60.081	13.311	492.508
2012 - W05	DEN	@ NE	L 21-31	48	90.987	67.730	23.258	1116.362
2012 - W04	DEN	vs OAK	W 37-6	42	91.974	70.217	21.756	913.764
2012 - W03	DEN	vs HOU	L 25-31	60	56.015	24.056	31.958	1917.496
2012 - W02	DEN	@ ATL	L 21-27	51	21.312	42.035	-20.724	-1056.909
2012 - W01	DEN	vs PIT	W 31-19	32	94.411	49.688	44.723	1431.141
								
Totals				435	80.6		        168.497	6562.375
							        16.850	15.086

Matt Ryan:

date	        team	opp	score	ActPl	QBR	def QBR	diff	weighted
2012 - W11	ATL	vs ARI	W 23-19	50	31.218	43.316	-12.098	-604.891
2012 - W10	ATL	@ NO	L 27-31	58	84.871	67.408	17.463	1012.837
2012 - W09	ATL	vs DAL	W 19-13	42	82.033	53.372	28.661	1203.760
2012 - W08	ATL	@ PHI	W 30-17	42	95.658	43.550	52.108	2188.524
2012 - W06	ATL	vs OAK	W 23-20	42	53.141	70.217	-17.076	-717.194
2012 - W05	ATL	@ WSH	W 24-17	60	74.018	66.090	7.928	475.677
2012 - W04	ATL	vs CAR	W 30-28	50	47.877	61.232	-13.355	-667.742
2012 - W03	ATL	@ SD	W 27-3	47	84.633	60.081	24.552	1153.924
2012 - W02	ATL	vs DEN	W 27-21	45	77.606	28.840	48.767	2194.500
2012 - W01	ATL	@ KC	W 40-24	36	97.525	71.688	25.837	930.134
								
Totals				472	74.5		        162.786	7169.530
							        16.279	15.190

Aaron Rodgers:

date	        team	opp	score	ActPl	QBR	def QBR	diff	weighted
2012 - W11	GB	@ DET	W 24-20	37	35.476	69.407	-33.930	-1255.421
2012 - W09	GB	vs ARI	W 31-17	39	81.671	43.316	38.355	1495.833
2012 - W08	GB	vs JAC	W 24-15	43	70.423	77.554	-7.131	-306.631
2012 - W07	GB	@ STL	W 30-20	44	95.472	60.141	35.331	1554.564
2012 - W06	GB	@ HOU	W 42-24	44	95.756	24.056	71.699	3154.771
2012 - W05	GB	@ IND	L 27-30	47	54.667	62.531	-7.864	-369.614
2012 - W04	GB	vs NO	W 28-27	48	86.764	67.408	19.356	929.086
2012 - W03	GB	@ SEA	L 12-14	57	54.309	49.127	5.182	295.371
2012 - W02	GB	vs CHI	W 23-10	40	29.304	24.157	5.147	205.891
2012 - W01	GB	vs SF	L 22-30	63	55.141	55.550	-0.409	-25.795
								
Totals				462	69.5		        125.735	5678.055
							         12.574	12.290

diff stands for difference

The bolded blue stat is what you want to be looking at. It's basically the difference in Total QBR above what the average defense allows. As you can see, once the defenses are factored in, Brady is way way ahead of his MVP competition. In addition, he has only one game where his QBR was below what the defense usually allows.

Note:
The weighted method factors in the number of action plays for each game (similar to pass attempts but includes designed rushes, sacks, etc.). So if a QB has more action plays in one game, that game gets weighted more. Basically, its like any other rate stat. The difference column treats every game equal without factoring in the amount of action plays a QB had in the game.

Another aspect of why Brady is the MVP is his consistency, which can be measured by the standard deviation of the game logs of QBR. As seen below, with the lowest std deviation in QBR, it shows the type of consistency that Brady displays.

Ryan	21.7764016
Rodgers	23.84493657
Peyton	27.59992754
Brady	19.91270114

Finally, here's a look at how the defenses the 4 MVP candidates have faced rank in various categories:

Matt 	OPP	Rate	DVOA	QBR	EPA/P 	Pass SR
Ryan	KC	32	25	31	31	20
	DEN	12	5	3	8	5
	SD	21	17	18	18	18
	CAR	16	9	20	13	24
	WSH	17	16	23	25	27
	OAK	30	30	29	30	25
	PHI	22	23	6	27	16
	DAL	18	21	12	19	12
	NO	31	31	24	32	30
	ARI	2	3	5	3	6
						
average		20	18	17	21	18
median		20	19	19	22	19

Aaron	OPP	Rate	DVOA	QBR	EPA/P 	Pass SR
Rodgers	SF	4	7	14	5	11
	CHI	1	1	2	1	2
	SEA	3	2	9	6	4
	NO	31	31	24	32	30
	IND	28	32	22	28	26
	HOU	7	4	1	2	1
	STL	19	12	19	16	23
	JAC	23	27	32	29	31
	ARI	2	3	5	3	6
	DET	27	28	27	22	19
						
average	15	15	16	14	15
median	13	10	17	11	15

Peyton	OPP	Rate	DVOA	QBR	EPA/P 	Pass SR
Manning	PIT	8	14	10	15	8
	ATL	11	10	4	4	9
	HOU	7	4	1	2	1
	OAK	30	30	29	30	25
	NE	25	20	25	20	17
	SD	21	17	18	18	18
	NO	31	31	24	32	30
	CIN	20	19	17	9	14
	CAR	16	9	20	13	24
	SD	21	17	18	18	18
						
average	19	17	17	16	16
median	21	17	18	17	18

Tom	OPP	Rate	DVOA	QBR	EPA/P 	Pass SR
Brady	TEN	29	29	28	26	32
	ARI	2	3	5	3	6
	BAL	5	13	7	12	15
	BUF	24	26	26	21	13
	DEN	12	5	3	8	5
	SEA	3	2	9	6	4
	NYJ	9	8	16	17	10
	STL	19	12	19	16	23
	BUF	24	26	26	21	13
	IND	28	32	22	28	26
						
average	16	16	16	16	15
median	16	13	18	17	13

EPA/P is actually Pass EPA/Play
SR is Pass Success Rate
Rate is NFL QB rating

Finally, an unrelated but important stat that again shows Brady's superiority:

	QB rating when blitzed
Brady	128.7
Peyton	100.2
Rodgers	120.9
Ryan	92.1

Also, for good measure, he's graded out as Pro Football Focus' best QB this year (for whatever that is worth, just another stat in his favor, even if you believe its flawed).

As you can see, the stats are overwhelmingly in Brady's favor, especially once you account for the defenses he's faced. He's faced a tougher slate of pass defenses than Peyton, who at this point is his primary competition for the MVP.

[dynasty7961]

This is great, and i agree with the stats, brady is unreal, and the best player in the league

[Austeezy]

Holy crap, that's a lot to look over. I wonder what the responses this would get in the main forum.

I'll look over it later, but he's definitely in the discussion with a few other people. If it comes down to him and PManning, I really hope Tom gets it.

[Superdude]

People would just be like HURR DURR ADVANCED STATISTICS

[lolollort]

Not going to lie...up until this point of the season the MVP is brady and it isn't close.

[RateSports]

Not going to lie...up until this point of the season the MVP is brady and it isn't close.

This x100000000

I am so sick of hearing about Peyton Manning

[PatsSoxKnicks]

Holy crap, that's a lot to look over. I wonder what the responses this would get in the main forum.

I'll look over it later, but he's definitely in the discussion with a few other people. If it comes down to him and PManning, I really hope Tom gets it.

People would just be like HURR DURR ADVANCED STATISTICS

Pretty much what Superdude said unfortunately. Sadly, there's a ton of posters in the NFL forum that don't understand football and what constitutes a good stat and what doesn't. A lot of people don't understand that the point of an offense is to score points rather then getting lots of yards (which obviously helps but it's irrelevant if you end up 0-10 on 3rd down).

Also, after this past game, the Pats offense is now on pace to BREAK the record of that 07 Pats offense.

[Austeezy]

Brady also hasn't had any pick6's unlike Manning who has 2 or 3 this year. I've seen so many this season, I wouldn't be surprised if Brady was the only QB who hasn't thrown one. I can't remember the last time he threw one.

[goshhhjosh]

Brady also hasn't had any pick6's unlike Manning who has 2 or 3 this year. I've seen so many this season, I wouldn't be surprised if Brady was the only QB who hasn't thrown one. I can't remember the last time he threw one.

Brady has thrown 24 TD's and 3 INT's this year. He hasn't thrown an INT since the Seattle game (10/14/12.)

Simple stats so far this year:

Brady (**11 games**) 24 TD's, 3 INT's, 3,299 YDS, 105.0 RTG
Manning (10 games) 24 TD's, 7 INT's, 2,975 YDS, 106.2 RTG
Rodgers (10 games) 27 TD's, 6 INT's, 2,619 YDS, 107.3 RTG

I also imagine that Brees will get some consideration as well. Mark Sanchez not so much.

[hugepatsfan]

Brady has thrown 24 TD's and 3 INT's this year. He hasn't thrown an INT since the Seattle game (10/14/12.)

Simple stats so far this year:

Brady (**11 games**) 24 TD's, 3 INT's, 3,299 YDS, 105.0 RTG
Manning (10 games) 24 TD's, 7 INT's, 2,975 YDS, 106.2 RTG
Rodgers (10 games) 27 TD's, 6 INT's, 2,619 YDS, 107.3 RTG

I also imagine that Brees will get some consideration as well. Mark Sanchez not so much.

That goes without saying but I'm glad you did because I got a good laugh out of it.

[B'sCeltsPatsSox]

Brady has thrown 24 TD's and 3 INT's this year. He hasn't thrown an INT since the Seattle game (10/14/12.)

Simple stats so far this year:

Brady (**11 games**) 24 TD's, 3 INT's, 3,299 YDS, 105.0 RTG
Manning (10 games) 24 TD's, 7 INT's, 2,975 YDS, 106.2 RTG
Rodgers (10 games) 27 TD's, 6 INT's, 2,619 YDS, 107.3 RTG

I also imagine that Brees will get some consideration as well. Mark Sanchez not so much.

You ****ing jinxed him smh


Anyways as for the thread, PSK's OP shows just how valuable Brady is and the advance stats prove it. Stats like passer rating and YPA are alright(but flawed) to determine how good someone's playing but advance stats are usually the best at determining how value a player is in all sports.

[Austeezy]

At the end I meant pick6 josh

[Ebbs]

I'm surprised I went through all of that.

1) I thought Brady was MVP before reading that. It added to that theory.

2) I think it will be 3-4 years before any of those stats really start to factor in the minds of voters, former players who are now analysts and the general fan base.

3) ESPN, NFL network, and othe NFL analysts have actually said Brady has lost a step. Which I didn't really understand but any time the Pats have a eery week he takes the heat.

4) Brady is still the QB I'd want with the game on the lien because I don't see a clearly better arm in the NFL and I don't see another QB who takes care of the ball like he does.

[PatsSoxKnicks]

So to update this thread, Brady now has a massive lead in DYAR and DVOA: http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

His regular stats have also increased to the point where he's the 2nd rated QB in passer rating, only slightly behind Rodgers. He also leads in Pro-Football-Reference's ANY/A.

Of course, it really will come down to how he does against the Niners and Texans. If the offense can play at a high level, then I would imagine his momentum will build some more.

[ManRamForPrez24]

Great post.

However, I'll tell you why he won't win it: Peyton Manning is the better story. That sucks, a lot, but unless he falls apart, Peyton is gonna win it.