Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 33
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    New Brunswick, Canada
    Posts
    3,775
    vCash
    1500

    Bill James Projections for Jays

    I am an avid reader of Fangraphs, which I highly recommend to any and all baseball fans, and they recently released the Bill James projections for all players. I collected the projections for the Jays main players and some interesting ones.

    These projections are generally overly optimistic and I trust most other projection systems more then BJ, but these are currently available and i am bored, so here we go!

    (I ordered the line-up and rotation as I would do myself)

    1. Jose Reyes (S): 295/352/434 - 39 sb
    2. Brett Lawrie (R): 289/342/465 - 21 sb
    3. Melky Cabrera (S): 292/348/432 - 14 sb
    4. Joey Bats (R): 259/377/529 - 39 hr
    5. Edwin E-5 (R): 271/359/504 - 31 hr
    6. Adam Lind (L): 272/329/460 - 22 hr
    7. J.P Arencibia (R): 232/278/451 - 23 hr
    8. Colby Rasmus (L): 237/312/427 - 23 hr
    9. Emilio Bonifacio (S): 275/336/350 - 45 sb

    Anthony Gose: 253/324/369 - 46 sb

    1. Josh Johnson (R): 3.21 era, 3.08 fip, 2.85 bb/9
    2. Mark Buehrle (L): 3.78 ea, 4.10 fip, 1.80 bb/9
    3. Brandon Morrow (R): 3.47 era, 3.48 fip, 9.19 k/9
    4. Ricky Romero (L): 4.43 era, 4.46 fip, 0.92 hr/9
    5. J.A Happ (L): 4.30 era, 4.25 fip, 8.05 k/9

    Casey Janssen: 3.18 era, 3.28 fip, 1.85 bb/9
    Sergio Santos: 3.52 era, 3.26 fip, 11.11 k/9
    Esmil Rogers: 3.98 fip
    Darren Oliver: 2.95 era, 3.14 fip



    I am thrilled we obtained 3 switch hitters this off season as i have always felt we lacked left handed hitters. We also brought in valuable OBP abilities, which i feel has been the biggest detriment to our offense. Also, we are going to be so incredibly dangerous on the bases this year!

    I feel Romero can easily out-perform that bad projection, and while he is not the pitcher he appeared to be in that strong 2011, he is certainly not the mess he was last season.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Key Biscayne, Florida
    Posts
    9,911
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt-the-great View Post
    I am an avid reader of Fangraphs, which I highly recommend to any and all baseball fans, and they recently released the Bill James projections for all players. I collected the projections for the Jays main players and some interesting ones.

    These projections are generally overly optimistic and I trust most other projection systems more then BJ, but these are currently available and i am bored, so here we go!

    (I ordered the line-up and rotation as I would do myself)

    1. Jose Reyes (S): 295/352/434 - 39 sb
    2. Brett Lawrie (R): 289/342/465 - 21 sb
    3. Melky Cabrera (S): 292/348/432 - 14 sb
    4. Joey Bats (R): 259/377/529 - 39 hr
    5. Edwin E-5 (R): 271/359/504 - 31 hr
    6. Adam Lind (L): 272/329/460 - 22 hr
    7. J.P Arencibia (R): 232/278/451 - 23 hr
    8. Colby Rasmus (L): 237/312/427 - 23 hr9. Emilio Bonifacio (S): 275/336/350 - 45 sb

    Anthony Gose: 253/324/369 - 46 sb1. Josh Johnson (R): 3.21 era, 3.08 fip, 2.85 bb/9
    2. Mark Buehrle (L): 3.78 ea, 4.10 fip, 1.80 bb/9
    3. Brandon Morrow (R): 3.47 era, 3.48 fip, 9.19 k/9
    4. Ricky Romero (L): 4.43 era, 4.46 fip, 0.92 hr/9
    5. J.A Happ (L): 4.30 era, 4.25 fip, 8.05 k/9

    Casey Janssen: 3.18 era, 3.28 fip, 1.85 bb/9
    Sergio Santos: 3.52 era, 3.26 fip, 11.11 k/9
    Esmil Rogers: 3.98 fip
    Darren Oliver: 2.95 era, 3.14 fip



    I am thrilled we obtained 3 switch hitters this off season as i have always felt we lacked left handed hitters. We also brought in valuable OBP abilities, which i feel has been the biggest detriment to our offense. Also, we are going to be so incredibly dangerous on the bases this year!

    I feel Romero can easily out-perform that bad projection, and while he is not the pitcher he appeared to be in that strong 2011, he is certainly not the mess he was last season.
    Based on these numbers, seems we are no further ahead starting Rasmus over Gose. Which means dealing Rasmus is not out of the question.. But all this is speculative numbers that you don't use to base who's best to move and who to keep.

    But an interesting read
    Last edited by wagnall; 11-23-2012 at 05:09 PM.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Posts
    1,323
    vCash
    1500
    I doubt Romero has an ERA over 4. He just had a down season and we don't know when he started playing while hurt. I think an era of 3.7-3.8 seems reasonable IMO.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    New Brunswick, Canada
    Posts
    3,775
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by wagnall View Post
    Based on these numbers, seems we are no further ahead starting Rasmus over Gose. Which means dealing Rasmus is not out of the question.. But all this is speculative numbers that you don't use to base who's best to move and who to keep.

    But an interesting read
    Absolutely, these are purely speculative, and there are numerous superior projection systems out there that i look forward to examining.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    New Brunswick, Canada
    Posts
    3,775
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by KidDraco View Post
    I doubt Romero has an ERA over 4. He just had a down season and we don't know when he started playing while hurt. I think an era of 3.7-3.8 seems reasonable IMO.
    He is certainly capable of a 3.7ish ERA, although he really needs to cut down on the walks.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    345
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by KidDraco View Post
    I doubt Romero has an ERA over 4. He just had a down season and we don't know when he started playing while hurt. I think an era of 3.7-3.8 seems reasonable IMO.
    yeah i expect Ricky to revert to his career norm, which is sub 4.00 ERA. His 1 off year is not indicative of Ricky as a pitcher.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    11,216
    vCash
    1500
    Predicting what a player will do is about as worthless as this expired Quiznos coupons staring me in the face!

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    507
    vCash
    1500
    Lol, man, I would be more than happy if some of those projections were accurate (I'd be very satisfied with an almost .800 OPS and 20+ HRs from Lind tbh).

    Should be fun to watch this team. Man I hope injuries don't mess things up too badly this year....

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Sydney, Australia but born in Exhibition Stadium
    Posts
    2,817
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanyo View Post
    Predicting what a player will do is about as worthless as this expired Quiznos coupons staring me in the face!
    Totally agree. Why would this guy even bother.
    Hey! It'S JoeyBatS

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    507
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Billyen View Post
    Totally agree. Why would this guy even bother.
    Durr, he's a 'guru'!


  11. #11
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    17
    vCash
    1500
    Four switch hitters.. Reyes, Cabrera, Bonafacio and Izturis.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Sydney, Australia but born in Exhibition Stadium
    Posts
    2,817
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Korac View Post
    Durr, he's a 'guru'!

    What did he predict last year? This is what I like to see.
    Hey! It'S JoeyBatS

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Posts
    5,377
    vCash
    1500
    Always high on hitters
    Beeston: "we should be able to support a $140-$150 million payroll and that's the direction that we're headed."
    1.27.11

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    New Brunswick, Canada
    Posts
    3,775
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanyo View Post
    Predicting what a player will do is about as worthless as this expired Quiznos coupons staring me in the face!
    How so? There is a science associated with predicting statistical performances, while it is far from perfect, it is by no means useless.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    2,588
    vCash
    1500
    If our top 3 give us those numbers I'll be happy an no way m. Beurle has an era under 4 in the al east.

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •