2012 Free Agent and Trade Ideas Thread 16

[bulldog312]

I've figured out how baseball fans' interpretation of science works, at least.

No, it's pretty much how all science works. In some fields it changes a year later, in some a decade later, and others centuries later. But its pretty much how all science works. I'm in medicine, and that's definitely how it works.

[KyleJRM]

One study shows a slightly better correlation, and the new data is considered factual and the old data is thrown out?

No, that is not how science works in any field.

[Rynoplasty]

There's not much in the way of a rigorous peer review system in sabermetrics.

[terencem]

One study shows a slightly better correlation, and the new data is considered factual and the old data is thrown out?

No, that is not how science works in any field.

They rarely throw anything out. That's why you have several versions of advanced pitching stats to choose from and there is usually a consistency within those stats among pitchers who regularly effectively prevent runs.


What stats do you think people should be looking at?

[cubsbullsbears2]

I like the Gordon idea ...this is who I want at 3b long term he is a good defensive 3rd basemen only moved to open up the spot for Eminiem.

In what universe is Gordon a "good" defensive 3B? He's been good for -9 Rdrs over his 330 games there...mmm a really sexy .949 fielding percentage maybe? He's clearly below league average defensively at 3B. Just because he won a GG in the OF does not make him a good defensive 3B

[KyleJRM]

They rarely throw anything out.

Who is "they"?

Because if "they" is message-board posters, they most certainly do. "LOL, you are still using FIP-? xFIP is what counts!"

That's why you have several versions of advanced pitching stats to choose from and there is usually a consistency within those stats among pitchers who regularly effectively prevent runs.

The consistency is pretty loose, to be honest. FIP and xFIP usually have a pretty noticeable difference each year. Was Matt Garza a 3.59 pitcher last year or a 4.17?

What stats do you think people should be looking at?

At this point, I think we need to accept that a single ERA-substitute for predictively describing pitching performance is probably impossible. There are too many variables that you can't universally account for with a single-case statistic.

Look at raw peripherals and stuff. Ks, BBs, HRs, GBs, FBs, velocity, swinging-strike percentage, things like that. Trying to distill it into a single stat seems futile.

Normalizing HR% to 12.5% just seems like a classic case of overfitting to me.

[DavidH]

Because if "they" is message-board posters, they most certainly do. "LOL, you are still using FIP-? xFIP is what counts!"

You're the main person I recall doing this in the past.

I certainly didn't do it.

[SenorGato]

Look at raw peripherals and stuff. Ks, BBs, HRs, GBs, FBs, velocity, swinging-strike percentage, things like that. Trying to distill it into a single stat seems futile.

I'd so much rather one stop shop. It's just easier that way.

[hrubes20]

Trade: Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Marco Hernandez, Dillon Maples, Tony Zych, Matt Szczur, Josh Vitters and Darwin Barney to the Miami Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Morrison and Yunel Escobar

8 for 3 deals are rare to be certain, however this is one that both organization would be hard pressed not to seriously consider (Not to mention the Marlins were just apart of a 12 player mega deal…they do exsist). Obviously, Stanton is the prize here however Escobar is a very solid return piece as well. 'Unloading' Morrison is apparently a must for this band of misfits (Loria/Sampson) and would just so happen to be almost a must in return for Rizzo being in the deal (Morrison is a 1B, no one can convince me otherwise)

The payment is steep. Rizzo, Baez and Barney are all high (trade) value guys with Hernandez, Maples, Szczur and to some extent Zych all being 'high ceiling' prospects with varying degrees of 'risk' (although as prospects, aren't they all risky?) Marlins completely overhaul their farm/MLB roster(s) and likely win another WS title prior to us (they seem to do it after every blow up) Easy to project how this deal is a win of the Marlins- upgrading significantly at 1B and 2B immediately while also netting a south Florida legend and uber prospect in Baez.

All that said, IMHO the Cubs actually get away with losing very little that isn't replaceable within the next few offseasons prospect wise. Baez is the 'special' piece while the rest can be found with good scouting and player development and trades such as:

Trade Matt Garza to the Boston Red Sox for Matt Barnes, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman and Ryan Sweeney
This trade is based off of Garza having clean medicals. His track record of success in the AL East and the familiarity that the Red Sox have with him because of it would play a huge factor into them pulling the trigger prior to him taking the bump after the ‘injury’. Is it a fantastic return? Nah, but realistically it’s tough to imagine the Cubs getting one with all the variables involved (injury, contract year/impending free agency, etc.) Barnes becomes the best rotational arm in the system above A ball while Workman is an easily projectable Joe Blanton type 4/5 (which has solid value) Ranaudo is the ultimate lotto card and the type of extremely high ceiling guy that the Cubs brass would like to get back in a Garza deal. Ranaudo has soured enough in Bostons eyes that they likely would add him to such a deal even with his TORP high end appeal (although he could just as easily become Mark Pawelek as well) Sweeney give the team a solid 4/5 OF that can play all three postions. Boston meanwhile, can slot Garza into the 2nd spot in the rotation or get crazy and deal Lester for a big bat and slide Garza into the top spot (which he plays as barely league average as, much better 2nd option IMHO)

Trade Alfonso Soriano, Junior Lake and cash to the New York Yankees for Joba Chamberlain, Zachary Nuding, Nik Turley and Austin Romane
I realize it’s kinda generic to say ‘Soriano to Yanks in a deal involving Joba’ but it is was it is. A baseball trade that serves both organizations needs. Lake is a prospect I’m not crazy about personally, however the Yankees lack any depth behind Cano, Jeter and ARod and Lake is close enough to possibily start to take the burden away from the trio a bit. Soriano’s resurgence as an acceptable starting LF fills a gap for the Yanks as Gardner is still feeling the effects of his injury. For the Cubs, pitching, pitching and more pitching is the need and what they get here. Joba could potentially handle a rotation spot, but likely he slides into the back end of the bullpen.

Trade Carlos Marmol and Logan Watkins to the Angels for Alberto Callaspo
Callaspo is a 3B for the Angels but I believe he’ll profile much better as a 2B. He’s a solid, no holes type 2B that this organization has become accustomed to having (Morandini, Young, Walker, Barney etc.) Marmol is an obvious interest to the Angels while Watkins is the type of versatile MI type the Angels love.
Sign Ryan Theriot to a 1 year vet minimum deal
Not a huge fan of ‘The Riot’ however, vet mini signing happen, often, and this one would fit what ‘my’ Cubs team needs- backup MI help

Sign Nick Swisher to a 3 year 50M deal with a mutual option at 14M for year 4
It’s an overpay, but the hike up in AYV is to negate a fourth year being automatically included. Swisher plays a solid corner OF and offers an above average bat and in the scenario he also offers an above average solution at 1B if LoMo faulters.

Sign Zack Greinke to a 6 year 146M deal
Want a TORP? Gunna cost ya 21-25M per. No way around it. Luckily for us, money is one asset this organization has in bundles. Greinke is the only legitimate ace available in this market and is the only free agent that I will be legitimately p-ssed off at if they don’t pursue aggressively.

C- Castillo, Navarro
1B- *Morrison (Swisher)
2B- Callaspo, Theriot
SS- Castro
3B- Escobar,* Valbuena
LF- Swisher, Sappelt
CF- *DeJesus,* Sweeney
RF- Stanton

Lineup:
(s)Callaspo- 2B
*DeJesus-CF
Castro-SS
Stanton-RF
(s)Swisher-LF
Escobar-3B
Morrison-1B
Castillo-C
Pitcher

Rotation:
SP- Greinke
SP- Samardzija
SP- Baker
SP- Feldman
SP- *T. Wood

CL- Vizcaino
SU-Chamberlain
MR-*Russell
MR-Bowden
MR-*Beliveau
MR-Camp
MR-Cabrera

I missed this a few pages back, but I love this offseason mock. Only change you could conceivably make would be the addition of Fujikawa, which would allow Vizcaino to be stretched out in the minors in preparation for a possible big league rotation spot in 2014 (or even 2nd half of 2013). Love the Garza to Red Sox trade, although I'm not sure we could get that package for only one season of him.

[terencem]

I'd so much rather one stop shop. It's just easier that way.

The fun part about Fangraphs, too, is you don't have to be satisfied with just one number. You can look at ERA, xFIP, FIP, ERA, SIERA and then see who a pitcher compares to and get a feel for the pitchers' profile and what the ceiling/floor for them could be.

[KyleJRM]

If you can choose between which of the six numbers you like best, then at that point the whole point of objectivity goes out the window and you can just fit the number to what story you want to tell. It basically becomes the eye test with numbers.

Sort of like how every new Cubs prospect is referred to by the highest ranking of any of the dozen or so prospect rankings out there.

[SenorGato]

I like looking at the peripherals more than I like looking at the ERA and DIP numbers myself. The stats Kyle mentioned all are more important for me projecting a guy moving forward than trying to work with one number that uses all (or some - velocity, swing strikes, GBs, etc are not in there) of those other numbers to make any guesses.

The fun part of FanGraphs is also one of the worst parts of it for me. It's nice and convenient to know those numbers, but getting your hands dirty and working with the basics (and while the data is only now become more available stuff like average velocity, pitch movement, swinging strike% all count as basic) is where the best guesses can be made.

[petrey10]

One study shows a slightly better correlation, and the new data is considered factual and the old data is thrown out?

No, that is not how science works in any field.

this coming from the guy who used a forum post, mens health article, and espn article as a source...... hahahahhaha

[Yagyu+]

Just in case the Kyuji Fujikawa thread goes overlooked:

Team is attempting to unload Marmol (again)... Have their sights locked in on Fujikawa, KRod and Mike Adams...

In regards to Fujikawa, I just had a brief, surprise phone conversation with someone I hadn't spoken to in close to a year, and before I had to pass the phone off I got an "Angels." They, however, only had personal knowledge of how the Los Angeles visit went. I really hope they're wrong. Last spoke to them in late October 2011 and they were spot on at the time about Kuroda going to the Yankees this past off-season.

Rodriguez I'm least interested in of the three, but I'd still be happy with the addition. He just lost out on a $17.5 million option, and instead received a $4 million buyout from the Brewers. Boras client; made $8 million in 2012.

Adams I like. He's far from a lock to re-sign with the Rangers, and there's history with Hoyer.

[petrey10]

I like looking at the peripherals more than I like looking at the ERA and DIP numbers myself. The stats Kyle mentioned all are more important for me projecting a guy moving forward than trying to work with one number that uses all (or some - velocity, swing strikes, GBs, etc are not in there) of those other numbers to make any guesses.

The fun part of FanGraphs is also one of the worst parts of it for me. It's nice and convenient to know those numbers, but getting your hands dirty and working with the basics (and while the data is only now become more available stuff like average velocity, pitch movement, swinging strike% all count as basic) is where the best guesses can be made.

haha don't mind kyle ..... he thinks Stanton > Pujols